We’ve written a lot lately about the TV-vs.-digital divide in political advertising. Voters aren’t consuming media in the same way as previous election cycles, and it’s incumbent on campaigns to get their messages in front of as many eyeballs as possible.
— A new bipartisan poll puts these changes in stark relief. According to the survey, conducted by Global Strategy Group (D)/Public Opinion Strategies (R) and first reported by Politico, nearly three-in-ten respondents hadn’t watched live TV in the week prior to being interviewed (not including sporting events), including more than 40% of voters under age 35. For the first time, less than half of voters said that live TV is their primary way to watch video content.
— The easy conclusion to make is that TV is out and digital is in. But that’s overstating the case. And the same technology that’s making live TV less dominant is, at the same time, making TV advertising more efficient and targeted. Set-top-box data and the rise of addressable advertising mean that less money will be wasted over the air.
— Another oversimplification: The entrenched consultant class isn’t trying to adjust. That’s one of the main complaints we hear from next-generation digital consultants, but, for their part, media consultants are becoming increasingly platform-neutral. “I think this business is becoming one thing,” OnMessage Inc.’s Brad Todd (R) told Hotline earlier this month. “We’re screen-agnostic and we’re platform agnostic. All our campaign strategies include now a mobile component, a digital component and television.”
That doesn’t mean that the political industry has done an adequate job reacting to these changes in communication, or that Democrats haven’t outpaced Republicans on this front. But the fact that two of the largest polling firms in politics have been conducting this survey for the past four years is evidence the establishment is taking notice.
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Nikki Haley. Jeb Bush. Scott Walker. Lindsey Graham. John Kasich. The list is growing ever longer of Republicans who say they wouldn't even consider becoming Donald Trump's running mate. "The recoiling amounts to a rare rebuke for a front-runner: Politicians usually signal that they are not interested politely through back channels, or submit to the selection process, if only to burnish their national profiles."
"Donald Trump holds a 15-point lead over Ted Cruz in the potentially decisive May 3 presidential primary race in Indiana, according to results from a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll. Trump gets support from 49 percent of likely Republican primary voters — followed by Cruz at 34 percent and John Kasich at 13 percent. If that margin in Indiana holds on Tuesday, Trump would be on a glide path towards obtaining the 1,237 delegates he needs to win the Republican nomination on a first ballot at the GOP convention in July."
In a statement released on Sunday, President and Mrs. Obama revealed that their oldest daughter, Malia, will attend Harvard University in the fall of 2017 as a member of the Class of 2021. She will take a year off before beginning school.
Foreign Policy takes a look at the future of mining the estimated "100,000 near-Earth objects—including asteroids and comets—in the neighborhood of our planet. Some of these NEOs, as they’re called, are small. Others are substantial and potentially packed full of water and various important minerals, such as nickel, cobalt, and iron. One day, advocates believe, those objects will be tapped by variations on the equipment used in the coal mines of Kentucky or in the diamond mines of Africa. And for immense gain: According to industry experts, the contents of a single asteroid could be worth trillions of dollars." But the technology to get us there is only the first step. Experts say "a multinational body might emerge" to manage rights to NEOs, as well as a body of law, including an international court.
Not to be outdone by Jeffrey Goldberg's recent piece in The Atlantic about President Obama's foreign policy, the New York Times Magazine checks in with a longread on the president's economic legacy. In it, Obama is cognizant that the economic reality--73 straight months of growth--isn't matched by public perceptions. Some of that, he says, is due to a constant drumbeat from the right that "that denies any progress." But he also accepts some blame himself. “I mean, the truth of the matter is that if we had been able to more effectively communicate all the steps we had taken to the swing voter,” he said, “then we might have maintained a majority in the House or the Senate.”