On Wednesday, we reviewed the strongest fourth quarter fundraising numbers reported to date. But about halfway through January, there are a slew of numbers we’re still eagerly anticipating from Senate hopefuls across the country. Here’s a look at the some of the big question marks still out there.
— Radio silence. We’re still waiting for numbers in some of the cycle’s marquee Senate races. In the hotly-contested Kentucky race, there’s been no word yet from Mitch McConnell (R) or his likely Democratic opponent Allison Lundergan Grimes. Grimes and McConnell both raked in more than $2 million in the third quarter, with Grimes outraising the Senate minority leader. Armed with some of Elizabeth Warren‘s (D-MA) fundraising team, can she keep it up? We did hear from McConnell’s primary challenger, businessman Matt Bevin (R), who brought in a solid $900,000. North Carolina is also expected to play host to a highly competitive race, and thus far neither Sen. Kay Hagan (D) nor anyone in the very crowded GOP field has announced their haul. Hagan, a solid fundraiser, will likely have another strong quarter, but will Thom Tillis (R) improve on his less-than-impressive third quarter?
— Primary challengers. Launching a primary challenge to a sitting senator can get you buzz — but we’re about to find out which of these challengers can back it up. It’s the first quarter we’ll see numbers for Milton Wolf, the Kansas physician (and distant Obama cousin) challenging Sen. Pat Roberts (R). In Mississippi, the same goes for state Sen. Chris McDaniel (R), who has the backing of several outside groups (meanwhile, Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS) needs to dramatically improve on his third-quarter numbers now that he’s confirmed he’s running for reelection). And another primary to watch the numbers in: Hawaii, where Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D) is running against appointed Sen. Brian Schatz (D). Schatz outraised the congresswoman last time around — will he solidify his lead or can she keep the money race close?
— Time to perform. As we pointed out Wednesday, Alaska‘s Dan Sullivan had a very strong first quarter of fundraising, and we haven’t heard from Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell (R), the other GOP establishment candidate in the race. But in the third quarter, the LG raised far less than what Sullivan did in the fourth. Has he been able to step it up and get anywhere close to Sullivan’s impressive haul? And in Nebraska, will Shane Osborn (R) show he can raise the money needed to compete with Ben Sasse (R), who had a blockbuster third quarter and is getting group support (and some national buzz)?
We’ve heard from a lot of winners so far. As we creep closer to the reporting deadline, we can expect to see some fundraising losers as well. Stay tuned.
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"Wikileaks published more than 8,000 documents purportedly taken from the Democratic National Committee Friday, just days before the start of the party's convention in Philadelphia. The documents included briefings on off-the-record fundraisers and candid photographs."
Hillary Clinton "is widely expected to announce her choice" of vice president "in an email to supporters while on a campaign swing in Florida on Friday afternoon." The consensus: it'll be Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia, although Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey and Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack are also said to be in the running.
- A Rasmussen Reports poll shows Donald Trump ahead of Hillary Clinton, 43%-42%, the fourth week in a row he's led the poll (one of the few poll in which he's led consistently of late).
- A Reuters/Ipsos survey shows Clinton leading 40%-36%. In a four-way race, she maintains her four-point lead, 39%-35%, with Gary Johnson and Jill Stein pulling 7% and 3%, respectively.
- And the LA Times/USC daily tracking poll shows a dead heat, with Trump ahead by about half a percentage point.