Recent stories by Natalie Jackson
DAILY
|
LEADING INDICATORS
Generic ballot polls have tightened. Here’s what that may mean.
Democrats have the advantage but do not seem to be in as strong a position as Trump approval might indicate.
DAILY
|
LEADING INDICATORS
What Democrats still don’t understand about the working class
Without the scandals, Graham Platner might have won in Maine—but not with white non-college support.
DAILY
|
LEADING INDICATORS
Polarization destroyed America 250 even before it became a Trump rally
We’re not as divided on patriotism as headlines would have you believe.
DAILY
|
LEADING INDICATORS
Why being a scummy guy isn’t disqualifying for elected office
Forget the pearl-clutching and excuses. Party matters more than scandals to most voters.
DAILY
|
LEADING INDICATORS
How primaries and gerrymandering rig the system
Low turnout and squiggly lines mean a few primary voters determine representation for everyone.
DAILY
|
LEADING INDICATORS
Texas still isn't purple. Here's why.
Ken Paxton’s nomination in the Senate race, combined with the current environment, gives Democrats a shot, but will it be enough?
DAILY
|
LEADING INDICATORS
Checking in on young voters
They are deeply pessimistic about our political system—and it’s not hard to see why.
DAILY
|
LEADING INDICATORS
Public opinion on AI is all about vibes
It takes more than a few questions to get to the bottom of all the applications and issues involving artificial intelligence.
DAILY
|
LEADING INDICATORS
The AI paradox: Americans don't trust it, but they use it
Possible future impacts, more than current realities, are making people nervous.
DAILY
|
LEADING INDICATORS
Make sure actual humans answered that poll you’re using
AI agents cannot be allowed to replace the voice of the people.
DAILY
National Journal Radio Bonus Episode: Riding the Poller-Coaster
Hotline editor Kirk A. Bado, Hotline's Nicholas Anastácio, and National Journal columnist Natalie Jackson unpack the changes in the polling industry.
DAILY
|
LEADING INDICATORS
Iran war shows how poll questions can distort public opinion in trying to report it
Voters' views are fluid, especially on emerging issues and complex legislation.
DAILY
|
LEADING INDICATORS
The scars of Iraq and Afghanistan are framing opinion about Iran
A whole generation came of age with drawn-out wars—and now we’re middle-aged voters.
DAILY
|
LEADING INDICATORS
What Gallup’s decision reveals about public polling
The incentives for public-service polling have changed dramatically in 88 years.
DAILY
|
LEADING INDICATORS
Our understanding of partisanship and ideology is outdated
Twenty percent of Democratic-leaning independents say they are “far left.”
DAILY
|
LEADING INDICATORS
There’s too much news for people—and polls—to keep up
Most Americans simply can’t track everything the Trump administration does.
DAILY
|
LEADING INDICATORS
Where opinion on Trump and Republicans stands as we start 2026
A referendum on the president isn’t looking particularly favorable for the GOP.
DAILY
|
LEADING INDICATORS
The AI lobby wants to make sure we don’t learn from the past
As chatbots replace human interaction, companies pay off politicians to stop regulation.
DAILY
|
LEADING INDICATORS
The polling numbers that should most alarm Republicans
Even some of the party faithful are starting to defect—and it’s because of the economy.
DAILY
|
LEADING INDICATORS
It might be time to retire the liberal-to-conservative spectrum
We hear terms like MAGA, progressive, socialist, and America First way more often.