Recent stories by Natalie Jackson
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Here’s what to know about the possibility of midterm polling error
It really does all come down to turnout. But read on for the wonky stuff.
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This midterm isn’t 2018 all over again. It’s 2006.
Democrats are poised to win states they usually don’t as Republicans run away from a deeply unpopular president.
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How to 'never forget' 9/11 when a whole generation has nothing to remember
Public opinion data provides a link to the past as firsthand memories fade.
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'Working-class' has become a meaningless political designation
Abuse of the term has rendered it useless for anything except rhetoric.
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Bad polls, fake polls, and prediction markets are mucking up election coverage
It’s hard out there for a (real) pollster.
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Polling doesn’t prove either Stevens or El-Sayed is more ‘electable’ in Michigan
The data shows a race that will hinge on currently undecided voters.
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Generic ballot polls have tightened. Here’s what that may mean.
Democrats have the advantage but do not seem to be in as strong a position as Trump approval might indicate.
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What Democrats still don’t understand about the working class
Without the scandals, Graham Platner might have won in Maine—but not with white non-college support.
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Polarization destroyed America 250 even before it became a Trump rally
We’re not as divided on patriotism as headlines would have you believe.
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Why being a scummy guy isn’t disqualifying for elected office
Forget the pearl-clutching and excuses. Party matters more than scandals to most voters.
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How primaries and gerrymandering rig the system
Low turnout and squiggly lines mean a few primary voters determine representation for everyone.
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Texas still isn't purple. Here's why.
Ken Paxton’s nomination in the Senate race, combined with the current environment, gives Democrats a shot, but will it be enough?
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Checking in on young voters
They are deeply pessimistic about our political system—and it’s not hard to see why.
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Public opinion on AI is all about vibes
It takes more than a few questions to get to the bottom of all the applications and issues involving artificial intelligence.
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The AI paradox: Americans don't trust it, but they use it
Possible future impacts, more than current realities, are making people nervous.
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Make sure actual humans answered that poll you’re using
AI agents cannot be allowed to replace the voice of the people.
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National Journal Radio Bonus Episode: Riding the Poller-Coaster
Hotline editor Kirk A. Bado, Hotline's Nicholas Anastácio, and National Journal columnist Natalie Jackson unpack the changes in the polling industry.
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Iran war shows how poll questions can distort public opinion in trying to report it
Voters' views are fluid, especially on emerging issues and complex legislation.
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The scars of Iraq and Afghanistan are framing opinion about Iran
A whole generation came of age with drawn-out wars—and now we’re middle-aged voters.
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What Gallup’s decision reveals about public polling
The incentives for public-service polling have changed dramatically in 88 years.