REDISTRICTING ROUNDUP: The Unanswered Gerrymander Questions
An analysis of states with redrawn congressional maps found “Republicans fell well short in the states where they redrew districts, but the new maps could pay off better for them in future elections, when the political environment is likely to be better for Republicans.” (Washington Post)
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COLLATERAL DAMAGE. In Tennessee, Republicans shored up Rep.-elect Brent Taylor (R-TN 09), but in the process helped cause Rep. Scott DesJarlais’ (R-TN 04) likely defeat by pushing heavily blue portions of Nashville and Rutherford County into his district. (Tennessee Journal)
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IT COULD HAVE BEEN WORSE. Republicans in South Carolina and Indiana failed to implement redrawn congressional maps, a blessing in disguise for them. Analyses of the proposed maps found “that if these maps had passed, they likely would have backfired badly for the GOP and led to even larger gains for Democrats.” In Indiana, a map designed to be 9-0 GOP would’ve been dangerously close to allowing a 9-0 Democratic sweep. (The Hill)
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BUT NEW MAPS HOLD VALUE IN FUTURE CYCLES. “Democrats in Florida appear to have maintained control of four U.S. House districts targeted” by Gov. Ron DeSantis’ (R) redistricting efforts. “But the margin of victory was 5 percentage points or less in each of those races, raising the question of whether Democrats can hold onto those congressional seats in an election cycle that’s less advantageous for their party.” (Orlando Sentinel)
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MAYBE IT WAS WORTH IT? Sean Trende, a fellow at the conservative-leaning American Enterprise Institute, argues redistricting may still have been worth it for Republicans. “The old maps would have performed under wave conditions as well, and it’s not clear they would have held up any worse.” Conditions could worsen for Democrats in 2028 or 2030, “and under those circumstances, these maps seem likely to perform.” (Sean Trende, American Enterprise Institute)
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HOTLINE ANALYSIS. After Tuesday’s wave, mid-cycle redistricting seems to have screeched to a halt. New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill (D) said she doesn’t see a path forward for redistricting; Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) said he won’t call legislators for a lame-duck redraw; and Wisconsin Democratic leaders said they’re open to new maps, but want to see what other states do first. After backfired gerrymanders, officials on both sides seem wary of being the first to restart the redistricting battle. Perhaps both parties will call it quits—or perhaps they’re just waiting for someone else to reach for the starting gun.
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MORE ANALYSIS. At the same time, Democrats must acknowledge that even though the GOP gerrymanders fell flat in a tsunami year, they could prove pivotal in 2028. Democrats had already been gearing up for big redistricting fights before 2028, a tacit admission of the advantage Republicans had gained over the past year and a half. There’s a very real possibility that Republican gerrymanders could fulfill their promise in 2028 or 2030; once the glee of 2026 wears off, Democrats must decide whether that’s a risk they’re willing to take.
