A swing-seat Republican told Hotline earlier this year that MAGA Inc, the well-funded super PAC helmed by President Trump and his allies, was the equivalent to a political Death Star—a devastating weapon capable of obliterating the president’s opponents in one fell swoop.
Well, Democrats found the thermal exhaust port.
A blue tsunami washed over the country with Democrats picking up seats in states and districts that Trump carried by double digits. They’ve won 54 seats in the Senate, 228 seats in the House, 28 governor’s races, secured legislative trifecta in several states, and they’re not done yet. Democrats could flip two more Senate seats when the dust settles. Dozens of House races still await calls from the AP.
We still don’t know where this wave will crest. As of publication TN-04, a district rated Solid Republican that Trump carried by 24 points, is still too close to call, with the Democrat slightly ahead. The results are even more devastating in North Carolina, where Republicans drew the map to favor their party in 11 of the state’s 14 districts. After Tuesday, Republicans will be lucky if they hold four North Carolina districts.
Republicans have never lost this badly under Trump. In the 2018 blue wave, Democrats flipped 40 House seats, but lost key Senate battlegrounds. In 2020, Republicans lost the White House and the Senate, but gained seats in the House. In 2022, Democrats lost control of the House, but gained seats in the Senate. This is the first election cycle since 2006 that both chambers of Congress flipped. Democrats are on track to win the popular vote by 13 points, the second-largest margin since Democrats had a 16-point advantage in the post-Watergate midterms in 1974. The sheer size of this victory amounts to a wholesale rejection of Trump and could signal a political realignment heading into 2028.
With Democrats flipping the governor’s races in Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas, and winning a Senate race in South Carolina, the map is poised to radically expand. Presidential elections in the Trump era were decided by the same seven swing states, but now the path to the White House could be wider than we’ve seen in decades.
Already, ambitious Democrats are jockeying to take credit for Tuesday’s victory and Republicans have begun plotting how they can dig their party out of this deep hole. The door is just beginning to close on 2026, but the window of opportunity for 2028 keeps getting wider.
— Kirk A. Bado
