Hotline's House Power Rankings

The pressure on Republicans has not eased in recent weeks, and with less than a week before Election Day, many congressional GOP stalwarts are beginning to think about retirement parties.

These rankings reflect the national political environment: Democrats appear set to retake the House, and many are hoping a blue wave will emerge. Since Hotline’s last Power Rankings, Republicans have pulled spending from a handful of districts, designating them lost causes.

As with previous editions of Power Rankings, Hotline has not considered redistricted seats that both parties consider uncompetitive. Districts like California’s 1st, Louisiana’s 6th, and Texas’ 32nd are seen as “auto-flips” that are all but locked in for the opposing party. Hotline includes only competitive races.

The list below, developed amid conversations with strategists from both parties, ranks the 10 House seats most likely to flip this November. Asterisks signify a district affected by mid-cycle redistricting.

1. Nebraska’s 2nd: Open (R)

Rep. Don Bacon, a formidable GOP incumbent, opted against reelection, clearing a path for Democrats to take the Omaha-based district. National GOP groups have pulled spending from the 2nd as Democratic political strategist Denise Powell settles in against Republican Brinker Harding.

2. California’s 48th: Open (R)*

Rep. Darrell Issa (R) opted against running in this newly redrawn district, all but sealing a win for Democrats. Last year Democrats in the state legislature shifted this from a safe Republican seat into one that former Vice President Kamala Harris carried by 3 points. Democrats have outspent Republicans 5 to 1 in the district, giving Democratic San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert a clear advantage over Republican San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond. Millions of dollars in spending warrants the district’s inclusion on the list, even as many operatives think the seat is long gone for Republicans.

3. Florida’s 9th: Rep. Darren Soto (D)*

Florida Republicans redrew Soto’s Orlando-area seat into a district that supported President Trump by about 18 points. Soto, a strong incumbent, is keeping the seat in play for Democrats, but the partisan gravity is still a steep hill. Soto’s been tasked with introducing himself to a broad swath of voters, and Navy veteran Dan Green could prove strong enough to take the seat for Republicans.

5. New Jersey’s 7th: Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R)

Kean, normally the antithesis of an attention-grabbing politician, drew the political world’s eyeballs when he disappeared from Congress for four months with no warning and little explanation. He later divulged that his disappearance was the result of mental health struggles before he hunkered down for a tough reelection campaign. Navy veteran Rebecca Bennett, his Democratic opponent, mirrors a successful Democratic candidate archetype, and Republicans pulled money from the race, sensing her advantage.

6. Pennsylvania’s 7th: Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R)

This is the swingiest district in the swingiest state. The Lehigh Valley district was ground zero for Trump’s gains with working-class voters, and Republicans are not going down without a fight. This is the most expensive race in Pennsylvania this cycle, and the closing days of the campaign between Mackenzie and firefighter Bob Brooks have become incredibly bitter and personal. Brooks should be able to ride the coattails of Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro’s reelection bid, but this might be tighter than expected.

7. Maine’s 2nd: Open (D)

This is Republicans’ best non-gerrymandered pickup opportunity. Blue Dog Rep. Jared Golden elected to retire, and progressive state Auditor Matt Dunlap took up the Democratic mantle. He faces former GOP Gov. Paul LaPage, who locally was known as Trump before Trump. Even though the president’s approval ratings are in the dirt, Dunlap’s progressive bona fides might not play in the reddest districts in the country still represented by a Democrat.

Trump won the district by about 10 points in 2024, but Republicans have nonetheless pulled funding as they seek to shore up incumbents elsewhere. Polls show Ager leading, and Balkcom likely lacks the resources to prevent the flip.

9. Iowa’s 3rd: Rep. Zach Nunn (R)

Nunn is fighting for his political life in the purest swing district in Iowa. The Des Moines-based 3rd is nearly evenly divided between Republicans, Democrats, and independents. The incumbent would be expected to hold serve in a neutral political environment, but this is not a neutral political environment for Republicans, especially in Iowa. Trump is uniquely unpopular, and Rob Sand, the Democratic nominee for governor, is the heavy favorite in the marquee statewide race. Democratic nominee Sarah Trone Garriott probably didn’t need to ride Sand’s coattails to beat Nunn, but they sure don’t hurt, either.

10. Alabama’s 2nd: Rep. Shomari Figures (D)*

The math is difficult for Figures, whose district was redrawn to favor Trump by more than 14 points. But Democrats think the 40 percent Black district still holds enough of his base to keep him in play, and that mid-cycle redistricting could motivate Black voters to turn out in huge numbers across the South. State Rep. Rhett Marques could nab the seat for Republicans. One cliché rings especially true in Alabama’s 2nd: It all comes down to turnout.