Election junkies should expect their first hits in Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and Ohio, four of the fastest-counting states in past cycles.
A growing consensus among top strategists in both parties is that if the blue wave is big enough, we could have a pretty good idea who will control both chambers of Congress by midnight. However, if control of the Senate comes down to a tight race in Alaska, don’t expect a final call for at least two weeks thanks to the state’s unique ranked-choice voting system.
Early wave indicators
Virginia’s polls close at 7 p.m. ET, and three House races will give early hints as to how large a Democratic majority might grow.
- Wave watch: Former Rep. Elaine Luria, a Democrat, is in a strong position to unseat Rep. Jen Kiggans of the 2nd District; a Luria victory would mean a decent night for Democrats.
- Wave warning: In the 1st District, prosecutor Shannon Taylor is running to unseat GOP Rep. Rob Wittman; a Taylor victory would signal a likely blue wave.
- Tsunami watch: In the 5th District, former Rep. Tom Perriello is looking to defeat GOP Rep. John McGuire in a seat that could signal not just a wave but a blue tsunami.
Surveying the new swing voters
Florida’s polls also close at 7 p.m., and the state has been decently quick at counting votes since the 2000 brouhaha. The Miami-Dade-based 27th District, where Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar is seeking reelection, will be an early test for the GOP’s standing with Latinos on Election Day. But keep in mind that Latino voters aren’t a monolith, and Florida’s Latinos may not trend the same way as, say, Texas’ Latinos.
Early signs of GOP hope
Georgia will be the first toss-up state on the gubernatorial map to start reporting out votes, and Fayette County will offer a glimpse into whether Republicans can hold onto traditionally friendly territory. Republicans have consistently won this county southwest of Atlanta, but their grasp on it has weakened in recent cycles as it becomes more suburban. If former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D), the gubernatorial nominee, is performing well here, it could be a good sign for Democratic gubernatorial candidates in other toss-up states like Nevada and Ohio, where Democrats will need to win in swingy, suburban areas. But if health care executive Rick Jackson (R) is able to hold on to Fayette County, it could be a sign that Republicans vying for state office will weather the storm that will undoubtedly bog down GOP candidates for federal office.
Senate speculation
The Carolinas could be one of the strongest indicators for how Senate Democrats are performing on Election Night. North Carolina is the most likely Senate seat in the country to flip, while South Carolina sits toward the edge of the battlefield. In North Carolina, former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is a uniquely gifted candidate who’s expected to prevail, but Nash County—where Cooper grew up—could gauge the size of his margin of victory. In 2024, Nash voted for President Trump by 2 points and Gov. Josh Stein by 14 points; Trump and Stein won statewide by 3 points and 15 points, respectively. A narrow win for Cooper here could spell trouble for Democratic Senate candidates running in much redder states, but a strong performance could encourage Democrats given the county’s population of rural and Black voters.
- Upset watch. Polls close at 7 p.m. ET in South Carolina. Sen. Darline Graham (R) is slightly favored to win; an upset win by pediatrician Annie Andrews (D) could signal a blue tsunami. Pay attention to the Lowcountry in this race, particularly in GOP-favorable Beaufort, Berkeley, and Dorchester counties.
The hunt for Blue Texas
In the must-watch Texas Senate race, four counties could forecast the winner. State Rep. James Talarico (D) would likely need to win GOP-leaning Collin County—the home base of Republican Ken Paxton—while boosting his support in the Democratic-favorable Harris County. Pay close attention to Latino-majority Rio Grande Valley counties like Zapata County, where Democratic primary votes cast this year exceeded former Vice President Kamala Harris’ 2024 vote tally. Jefferson County, a Trump-won county with the highest percentage of Black Texans, could determine the strength of Black voter turnout on the Democratic side.
2028 tea leaves
Progressives, led by Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, are anxiously watching candidates in battlegrounds and redder areas, like Abdul El-Sayed in the Michigan Senate race, Randy Villegas in California’s 22nd District, and Sam Forstag in Montana’s 1st District. A strong performance from those candidates will help progressives shift the party in their direction after a smattering of candidates backed by the Democratic Socialists of America won primaries in safe blue seats. Should those candidates falter, expect moderate Democrats, and groups like the center-left Third Way, to blame progressives for meddling in otherwise winnable races.
Patience is a virtue
Be prepared to wait for results in California. The state generally receives a bevy of mail-in ballots on Election Day, which take longer to process than in-person votes. Alaska, which uses ranked-choice voting, will also take its time tabulating results for close races. With a competitive Senate, gubernatorial, and House race each getting tighter by the day, it could be more than two weeks before results there are finalized.
