Texas stumps the Senate map

Ultraconservative firebrand Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton defied traditional Republican politics to become the Lone Star State’s chief legal officer, survived well-funded primary challenges, emerged victorious from an impeachment fight sprung by his own party, primaried his detractors in the state Legislature, and then unseated a Republican U.S. senator. Paxton’s impact within the Texas GOP cannot be understated as he has shaped the party in his and President Trump’s image.

“Every time Paxton has been in a hard fight, he has won,” former Paxton strategist Anthony Holm told National Journal. “He has beaten the establishment time in and time out, and then he's actually gone and moved policy, which is what they really hate. … The tide always flows the other direction, and Paxton wins.”

Despite defying the odds thus far, Paxton is now facing his greatest challenge: himself.

A multitude of ethics scandals during the state attorney general’s decade-long tenure have dogged Paxton on Texas airwaves, including allegations of bribery, corruption, and infidelity brought into public view during his 2023 impeachment trial. In 2025, state Sen. Angela Paxton filed for divorce from Paxton “on biblical grounds,” accusing him of infidelity for the first time in a court filing.

Sen. John Cornyn, a traditional Republican who was unseated by Paxton in the Senate primary, warned that the state attorney general would be a general-election liability from the beginning. The senator and his allies didn’t hold back against Paxton during the primary, spending roughly $92 million on the campaign prior to the May runoff and ballooning the GOP primary’s price tag to a record-breaking $130 million, according to the nonpartisan ad-tracking firm AdImpact.

National Republicans begged Trump for over a year to back Cornyn’s reelection; the president instead rewarded Paxton’s loyalty with an endorsement one week before the runoff, punishing Cornyn’s perceived insufficient allegiance to the MAGA movement.

Yet the president’s stamp of approval can’t entirely erase Paxton’s baggage, which has forced him into the most competitive Senate race in the state since 2018 and helped put Republican control of the Senate at risk.

“The top of the ticket has an effect,” one veteran Republican strategist told National Journal. “Turnout among Republicans, both because of Trump and Paxton, is going to be less than it should be.”

The Paxton campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

Republican strategists who spoke with National Journal were split on whether Paxton’s nomination truly made the Lone Star State contest and the Senate map substantially more expensive. Texas is the most expensive Senate race on the 2026 map, with $544.9 million spent on the campaign as of Oct. 23, rivaled only by Ohio’s $489.3 million price tag and Michigan’s $329.5 million.

Some Republicans point to a tougher electoral environment for Texas Republicans overall: The president’s approval rating has dropped into the negatives, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott is facing a closer-than-expected challenge from Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa after burning more than $141 million, and Latino Texans appear to be shifting away from Republicans.

“I think that even if Senator Cornyn was the nominee, we would be in a similar place,” said Brendan Steinhauser, Cornyn’s 2014 campaign manager. “Cornyn might be overperforming Paxton by a bit, but given what's going on in the Abbott reelection campaign, I think it wouldn't be that much.”

“We knew that if it went the way that it has gone, which is towards Paxton, that it would be more expensive,” National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Tim Scott told National Journal last month. “The good news is that this will be the best-funded midterm for Republicans, I think, in the history of our party, much because of President Trump's prolific fundraising efforts, and certainly my efforts as well as [Senate Majority Leader] John Thune's have been helpful.”

A flood of GOP cash dropped for Paxton in early September, allowing Republicans to counter Talarico during the final two months of the campaign. Paxton-aligned spending after Labor Day has outpaced Talarico-allied reservations, $237.1 million to $83.8 million. MAGA Inc. has spent $37.8 million on behalf of Paxton, but the biggest spender for the Republican nominee comes from the Thune-aligned Senate Leadership Fund.

SLF’s Texas PAC affiliate has spent $169.9 million following Labor Day, making the group’s Texas spend more than a third of its total $473.7 million investment during the two-month period. SLF’s nine-figure buy was a cause for concern for some Republicans until the group’s third-quarter fundraising report revealed a generous contribution from the world’s richest man.

Former Trump adviser Elon Musk donated a whopping $158 million to SLF in September, accounting for nearly 58 percent of the group’s third-quarter haul. Musk’s donation isn’t earmarked specifically for the Texas Senate race, but it offers a major lifeline for the GOP super PAC and its candidates elsewhere on the map.

“Thanks to some generous investors who have dedicated money to an affiliate Texas PAC, we’ve been able to go in and support Ken Paxton,” SLF Executive Director Alex Latcham told Bloomberg earlier this month. “Thanks to Leader John Thune and the Republican caucus and our fundraising, we haven’t had to detract resources from other states to do so.”

Latcham said his group will likely “spend nearly $200 million” to defend Texas without massive cuts to its investments in other Senate battlegrounds. He acknowledged that “there are still bitter feelings on both sides” but argued that Republicans “need to consolidate.”

“Many of them just need to bury the bullsh*t, quite frankly,” he said.

Most of Republicans’ offensive attention in the homestretch is on Michigan and New Hampshire, while investment in Georgia has decreased and Minnesota remains without significant outside support. Some Republicans argue that Paxton’s nomination isn’t to blame for Minnesota’s absence on the spending map.

“You shouldn’t look at a dollar there as a redirected dollar because there are people who have specific interests in Texas that I suspect are stepping up to help fund that effort through an SLF,” said Jason Thielman, the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s executive director during the 2024 cycle. “People look at the prospects of success in Texas by the underlying fundamentals of the state. People fall where they're leaning. In Texas, they lean Republican. In Minnesota, they lean more Democrat. I don't think you would see the willingness of donors to take the same level of investment in Minnesota by any extent.”

Senate Democrats aren’t letting Republicans’ nine-figure Texas investment completely distract them from their targets elsewhere on the map, even if Talarico could fulfill the Democratic pipe dream of flipping Texas blue. Texas Forever, an affiliate of the Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC, has spent $7 million on CTV ads following Labor Day, less than 3 percent of the group’s $249.5 million investment during the same period.

“There is no state that vexes Democrats quite like Texas,” SMP President J.B. Poersch told Bloomberg this month. “This one feels different. I think Talarico has an excellent chance to win. I think he was smart to get out early after he won the nomination. … I think Republicans will probably regret giving him lots of window to do that in the summer.”

Democratic strategists acknowledge there’s still time for skeptical GOP voters to come home for Paxton, but they insist that Talarico can win—even if Democrats nationwide fail to win Senate control.

“What I've seen in the state is nothing like I've witnessed in my 30-year career working in Texas, which is folks are very open to voting for Democrats more than I've ever seen them,” said Chuck Rocha, a senior adviser to the Talarico campaign. “Younger Latinos, white working-class people, moderate Republicans—all of those people are coming home to Democrats.”