Cook moves 19 House races toward Democrats

RACE FOR THE HOUSE: Cook Shifts 19 Races Toward Dems

The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter moved 19 race ratings toward Democrats, including six from the Toss Up to Lean Democratic category: AZ-06, CO-08, NC-11, TX-34, VA-02, and WI-03.

• OTHER MOVES. CA-21 moved from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic; CA-13 and TX-28 moved from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic; KY-06 and TX-35 moved from Lean Republican to Toss Up; AK-AL, AL-02, AZ-02, NV-02, and TX-23 moved from Likely Republican to Lean Republican; NC-03 and NC-13 moved from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.
• BIG LEAP. CO-04, held by Rep. Lauren Boebert (R), moved from Solid Republican to Lean Republican. (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter)
• HOTLINE ANALYSIS. Cook has adjusted 63 House ratings over the last month, all in favor of Democrats. The shift reflects a worsening environment for Republicans, one that couldn’t be overcome with an early spending advantage.
• MISTAH SPEAKAH. Speaker Mike Johnson refuses to acknowledge the possibility that Republicans lose control of the House, and “the speaker seems almost stumped about what that would mean for his future.” The speaker “seems to be living in a world that few others are inhabiting. The speaker says he doesn’t believe any of the polls, even the mountain of data that the NRCC and the Congressional Leadership Fund give him.”
• WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE. Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH 04) have hit the trail with Republicans across the country as they position themselves to run for minority leader.
• JOHNSON SAYS: “[Democrats] projecting 230 seats is hilarious. There’s no way. I think that we hold the majority, but I think it’ll be a small one again. It’s just the reality of the map. But I believe we’re going to hold it.” (Punchbowl News)
• GERRY, DUKE OF MANDER. Democrats are gaining confidence that GOP-led gerrymandering in Texas and Florida will fall flat on Nov. 3. Shifts among Latino voters, who represent sizable portions of the electorate in both states, and Trump’s sagging approval rating appear to be driving Democrats’ strength in redder areas. (Semafor)
• PROGRESSIVE. “The Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC is spending $8 million this cycle in an effort to grow its ranks” by about 20 members, including in nine competitive seats. (Politico)
• WHERE’S LEADERSHIP? Johnson visited CO-08 on Thursday for Rep. Gabe Evans (R). (Colorado Politics) Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is in NY-17 on Saturday for Army veteran Cait Conley (D) and in TX-35 on Sunday for Bexar County Deputy Sheriff Johnny Garcia (D). (CNN/Texas Tribune)

FUNDRAISING ROUNDUP: Pre-General Reports Show Democratic Boost

Pre-general election financial reports covering the first two weeks of October show late money showing up strong for the Democratic-aligned super PAC.

• DCCC. The DCCC raised $8.1 million, spent $33.2 million, and entered the final stretch with $30.7 million on hand. (FEC)
• NRCC. The NRCC raised $13.9 million, spent $28.7 million, and entered the back stretch with $46.5 million on hand. (FEC)
• HMP. The Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC raised $44 million, spent $75.7 million, and entered Oct. 15 with $121.4 million on hand. A late influx of infusions, including $16 million from former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, contributed to the high total. (FEC)
• CLF. The GOP-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund raised $3.2 million, spent $73.5 million, and left with $84.9 million on hand. (FEC)

POLLING ROUNDUP: Stefany Shaheen Holds Narrow Lead

In NH-01, a Saint Anselm College poll (Oct. 19-20; 861 LVs; +/-3.2%) found former Portsmouth City Councilor Stefany Shaheen (D) leading businessman Anthony DiLorenzo (R), 46%-42%, with 6% unsure. Rep. Chris Pappas (D) is running for Senate. (release)

• HOTLINE ANALYSIS. The poll found Shaheen underperforming the Democratic ticket, but the district’s lean and the political environment should be enough to help Shaheen cruise to victory. As Democrats seek the majority, this is a district they can ill afford to lose.
• MN-01. An internal poll (Oct. 18-20; 664 LVs; +/-3.79%) for Rep. Brad Finstad (R) found him leading teacher Jake Johnson (D), 50%-46%. The poll, conducted by co/efficient, found a similar generic ballot result, 50%-45%. (release)
• HOTLINE ANALYSIS. MN-01, comprising the southern edge of Minnesota, voted for President Trump by about 12 points in 2024. The district has come on line of late, with Democrats hopeful that Johnson can exploit the apparent Midwestern swing against the president, but Finstad is a capable incumbent. Johnson has focused on the cost of living, collecting receipts from families across the district. If he pulls off the upset, this poll will be yet another receipt for his bag.
• TX-34. A Washington Post-Schar School poll (Oct. 14-19; 605 LVs; +/-5.4%) found Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D) leading former federal prosecutor Eric Flores (R), 50%-43%.
• TX-35. The same poll (Oct. 14-19; 626 LVs; +/-6.2%) found Bexar County Deputy Sheriff Johnny Garcia (D) at 47%, statistically tied with Air Force veteran Carlos De La Cruz (R) at 48%. (Washington Post)
• HOTLINE ANALYSIS. Democrats expect to win TX-34, and Gonzalez’s lead in the poll reflects that possibility. Garcia, however, needs a boost. The Trump +10 district is a key opportunity for Democrats to break the Texas gerrymander, and much could depend on top-of-the-ticket fortunes.

FLORIDA 25: Money Moves in Florida

The GOP-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund dropped plans to spend $6 million against Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D), but President Trump’s “political operation swooped in and took over the reservation.” (Punchbowl News)

• STRIFE. After the CLF dumped its spending plans, the NRCC released an internal poll showing Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer (R) leading Moskowitz by 7 points.
• ANY POLL YOU CAN DO, I CAN DO BETTER. Now Democrats have put out their own survey, a House Majority PAC-sponsored poll showing Moskowitz up 5 points. (Florida Politics)
• HOTLINE ANALYSIS. October is time for tough decisions, and there seems to be disagreement over just how competitive FL-25 remains. FL-25 is the country’s most expensive House race, per AdImpact, with more than $45 million in spending reserved. And the district is home to an expensive media market, no doubt playing into CLF’s decision to pull back money. Hindsight is 20/20, but various factions seem to think the seat remains in play.

NEW JERSEY 02: Democratic Group Invests Against Van Drew

“A national Democratic-aligned super PAC, Project 18, is spending $1.5 million to unseat” Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R). Cape May Mayor Zack Mullock (D) is a longshot to win, and a House Majority PAC poll found Van Drew leading by 10 points.

• JEFF VAN DREW VS. LEFT MAN NEW. But Democrats—still sour from Van Drew’s 2019 party switch—remain hopeful that a blue tsunami could take out the congressman. The ad ties Van Drew to President Trump, "and assigns responsibility to the 40-year office for making South Jersey less affordable, cutting Medicare for seniors, and backing the war in Iran.” (New Jersey Globe)

VIRGINIA 02: Competing Veterans Diverge on Iran

The war in Iran could play significantly in VA-02, home to one of the country’s largest veteran populations. Two veterans—Rep. Jen Kiggans (R) and former Rep. Elaine Luria (D)—are seeking the seat, but they’ve diverged on the war.

• LURIA. “Luria, a former Navy commander, is telling voters that the conflict in Iran has needlessly weakened the military and is endangering strategic goals in other parts of the world. Iran is a war of choice, she argues, that is taking a toll on service members through extended deployments.”
• KIGGANS. Kiggans “is putting no distance between herself” and President Trump “on the war, echoing his insistence that America must prevent Iran from having a nuclear weapon. Kiggans told the Associated Press last week that Luria has ‘chosen the side of Iran’ and that ‘it’s like the Democrats are now siding with the Iranians and not standing with our military.’” (The Atlantic)