Fear about the future of the fragile U.S. economy is the big issue in the upcoming midterm elections. But people feel economic pain–or joy–differently in different states.
Voters will elect 35 U.S. senators next month, and seven of those races are regarded as toss-ups by The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. Will a state’s economy affect how people there vote? Will states enjoying decent growth stick with incumbents? Are voters in suffering states more likely to turn against current officeholders or their political parties?
Local issues have mattered in the past, but analysts see a potentially different pattern this year.
“I think economic perceptions are more nationalized," said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball. "That said, if Republicans really do end up doing quite poorly in Kansas and Iowa, for instance, local factors like ... agricultural-industry-specific issues may have been a reason.”
In the first half of this year, 11 states’ economies grew faster than the nation’s. Six states and the District of Columbia have seen theirs shrink, and the rest have grown slowly, according to State Economic Monitor, a project of the nonpartisan Urban Institute.
Economic attitudes often involve perceptions as much as reality, and the perception these days around the country is that things are not going well. A nationwide poll taken Oct. 15-18 by CNN/SSRS found only 1 in 4 respondents rating economic conditions as good.
Anywhere people drive, they see higher gasoline prices than a year ago. Anyone who wants to buy a home finds 30-year mortgages averaging higher than 7 percent. Government jobs, once among the most stable sources of employment, have decreased.
“Over the next six months, consumers expected both business conditions and the labor market to weaken," said Dana Peterson, chief economist at the nonpartisan Conference Board, which conducts monthly surveys of consumer confidence. "Consumers still anticipated their household incomes to rise, but less so compared to previous months.”
Doing well back home
Economic health varies widely from state to state (as well as city to city, industry to industry, older to younger, and so on).
New York’s growth from the second quarter of 2025 to the second quarter of this year was more than double the national average. Idaho is close behind, followed by California and Florida.
New York and California are reliably Democratic, and that party is hoping to flip a few Republican House seats in those states this year. Idaho and Florida tend to be solid Republican, though a few Florida Republican House seats are in play.
New York and California have grown faster because of the strong performance of their technology and finance industries, “especially with how the stock market and the AI industry have been faring,” said Aravind Boddupalli, senior research associate at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center.
Idaho has benefited from strong population growth and the need to serve the increasing number of people in the state. Florida’s biggest growth areas have been real estate, professional and technical services, and health care.
The states whose economies have suffered most have little in common politically. Maryland and the District of Columbia have fared among the worst, largely because of federal government cutbacks.
Maine may have been hurt by, among other things, restrictive federal trade policies. West Virginia ranked last in an analysis by WalletHub, a financial-services firm, in the “economic innovation” category. Also showing economic decline were Alaska, New Mexico, and North Dakota.
Tying economics to politics
There’s no easy way to correlate voter sentiment with the local economy. There are too many variables, too many personal concerns.
California, for instance, may be growing, but it’s long had the nation’s highest unemployment rate and highest gasoline prices. Hawaii has been battered for years by a sagging leisure and hospitality sector.
California hasn’t elected a Republican to a statewide office since 2006 and is not expected to break that streak next month. Hawaii last elected a Republican as U.S. senator in 1970, and last elected a Republican governor in 2006.
West Virginia had been a reliable Democratic state for years but has trended heavily Republican as conservatives gained firm control of the GOP. When Sen. Jim Justice ran for governor in 2016, he ran as a Democrat, but he switched to the Republican Party a year later. He’s now a U.S. senator and a consistent Republican vote.
The Cook Political Report says four senators, all Republicans, are in toss-up races: Sens. Jon Husted of Ohio, Susan Collins of Maine, Roger Marshall of Kansas, and Dan Sullivan of Alaska. Ohio’s economy grew 1.89 percent from Q2 2025 to Q2 2026, and Kansas was up 2.32 percent, not far from the 2.19 percent national average. Alaska and Maine were down slightly.
Cook's three other toss-up races are open seats in Texas and Iowa, now held by Republicans, and in Michigan, now held by a Democrat.
During that same 2025-2026 period, Texas grew 1.69 percent, Iowa 2.02 percent, and Michigan 1.87 percent.
Among the reliably safe incumbents, according to Cook: Sens. Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia and Ben Ray Lujan of New Mexico. Both states saw economic downturns over the year.
