Last-minute redistricting battles, primary debacles, and a sputtering administration have created a House battlefield as fluid as there’s been in recent memory.
Since Hotline’s last Power Rankings, Florida, Tennessee, Louisiana, and Alabama have implemented new congressional maps, each netting Republicans at least one seat. But as gas prices rise, so too do Democratic expectations of taking back the House majority.
Hotline’s ranking of districts most likely to flip reflects the advantage Democrats expect to exploit in November, as well as fights over recently gerrymandered seats that neither party is yet ready to give up. Just two Democratic-held seats untouched by redistricting made the list, showing the headwinds the GOP faces this cycle. For most observers at this point, the question isn’t whether Democrats flip the House—it’s how big their majority will be.
In keeping with previous editions of Power Rankings, Hotline will not include redistricted seats that both parties consider uncompetitive. Districts like California’s 1st, Louisiana’s 6th, and Texas’ 32nd are seen as “auto-flips” that are all but locked in for the opposing party. Hotline only considers competitive races.
The list below ranks the seats most likely to flip from one party to another this November. Hotline developed the ranking based on conversations with strategists from both parties. Asterisks signify a district affected by mid-cycle redistricting.
1. Florida’s 9th: Rep. Darren Soto (D)*
Soto’s presence on the ballot is the only thing preventing this from reaching auto-flip status for Republicans. The redrawn district supported President Trump by 18 points in 2024. Even though Soto has shown he can outperform the rest of the Democratic ticket, it’s still going to be an uphill climb for the Democrat in the Orlando suburbs tasked with introducing himself to new areas while seeking to replicate his 2024 overperformance. Former Defense Department official Dan Green, the GOP nominee, eked out a victory in the crowded primary, and he’s the favorite entering November.
2. Nebraska’s 2nd: Open (R)
This race was as close to a done deal as possible once Rep. Don Bacon (R) announced his retirement last year. The suburban Omaha seat is one of three crossover districts carried by both Kamala Harris and a downballot Republican in 2024. Political strategist Denise Powell should have no problem finally getting across the line in this perennial battleground over Republican Omaha City Councilman Brinker Harding.
3. California’s 48th: Open (R)*
Deep-pocketed Rep. Darrell Issa (R) would have made this race interesting if he had run for reelection in this redrawn seat. The Democratic gerrymander shifted this from a safe Republican seat into one that Harris carried by 3 points, giving Democratic San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert a clear advantage over Republican San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond. A relative newcomer who entered the race with strong fundraising, Desmond would have been a stronger candidate in a cycle without national headwinds against Republicans.
4. Alabama’s 2nd: Rep. Shomari Figures (D)*
Figures’ path to reelection looks something like this: Black voters angry with mid-cycle redistricting efforts that eliminated majority-Black districts across the South flock to the polls and deliver a turnout boom big enough to push the Democrat over the finish line. Even in such a scenario, the math is difficult for Figures—Trump won the district by more than 14 points two years ago. And the South’s racially polarized districts tend to have fewer swing voters, potentially limiting a wave. State Rep. Rhett Marques is well-positioned to nab a seat for Republicans.
5. Pennsylvania’s 7th: Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R)
Trump won this Lehigh Valley seat by a little more than 2 points in 2024, but Mackenzie’s victory over former Democratic Rep. Susan Wild was much slimmer. This year, he must defeat firefighter Bob Brooks, a union leader and ally of popular Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro—no easy task in a district that also features a sizable Latino population. Rising tides lift all boats, and Shapiro is expected to give a hefty wave to state Democrats. Mackenzie faces an uphill climb.
6. Maine’s 2nd: Open (D)
Voters of northern Maine can’t get enough of Democratic Rep. Jared Golden, having reelected him in 2024 despite voting for Trump by nearly 10 points. He’s had enough of Congress, though, giving Republicans their best shot at flipping a seat sans redistricting. Former Gov. Paul LePage, already well-known to voters, is looking to nab the seat for Republicans. The GOP hopes his opponent, state Auditor Matt Dunlap, will scare off the region’s split-ticket voters with his progressive bona fides.
7. Iowa’s 1st: Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)
Miller-Meeks has made a career out of winning close races, having won her first election by 6 votes and her last reelection by fewer than 800. However, the strain of Trump’s tariffs and rising fuel prices seem poised to finally drag her down. The congresswoman is keeping pace with 2024 nominee Christina Bohannan’s fundraising and performed much better in the primary, but this third matchup between the pair might be the charm for the Democrat.
8. New Jersey’s 7th: Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R)
Kean has long held a reputation for shyness in New Jersey circles, but his mysterious four-month absence from Congress drew international attention, a boon to Democrats in the expensive New York City media market. His reelection campaign was always set to be tough, but his disappearance—later revealed to be a depression-related hospitalization—only made things harder. Navy veteran Rebecca Bennett, a moderate in the mold of Democratic Gov. Mikie Sherrill, has raised respectable amounts and could take down the scion of New Jersey’s famed Kean family.
9. Arizona’s 6th: Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R)
Marine Corps veteran JoAnna Mendoza has proven to be one of Democrats’ strongest fundraisers this cycle, entering July having raised $7.4 million—about $1 million more than Ciscomani. Trump won the district by less than a point in 2024. If the environment leans even slightly toward Democrats, Mendoza has an edge.
10. North Carolina’s 1st: Rep. Don Davis (D)*
Another victim of GOP gerrymandering, Davis is set for another matchup with 2024 nominee Laurie Buckhout. The district voted for Trump in 2024 by 3 points, but the redraw made it a double-digit Trump seat. Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper’s strong campaign at the top of the ticket might provide the necessary coattails for Davis, and the Libertarian Party candidate might help erode support from Buckhout, too, but it’s still a tough task for the Democrat in this sprawling rural district.
11. Iowa 3rd: Rep. Zach Nunn (R)
On paper, this is the most competitive seat in the state. The district is nearly evenly split between Democrats, Republicans, and independents, but the worsening political environment for Republicans gives Democratic nominee Sarah Trone Garriott the edge. Garriott will also enjoy a boost from Rob Sand, the Democratic nominee for governor, who is expected to run up the score in the Des Moines-centric district.
12. Texas’ 35th: Open (D)*
Republicans thought they had this race in the bag after redrawing this safe Democratic district to one that Trump carried by double digits. Democratic Rep. Greg Casar abandoned the San Antonio district for bluer pastures, but a deteriorating political environment, coupled with a weak nominee at the top of the ticket, gives Democrats more than a puncher’s chance to keep it. Bexar County Deputy Sheriff Johnny Garcia, the Democratic nominee, is running a strong campaign against Air Force veteran Carlos De La Cruz, but he’ll need more help to finish the job. Democrats have a slight spending advantage in the district through the election.
13. Arizona’s 1st: Open (R)
Republican Rep. David Schweikert’s decision to run for governor gives Democrats a prime opportunity in the Scottsdale-based district. Former state Rep. Amish Shah won the Democratic primary over the wishes of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and despite having lost to Schweikert two years ago. Shah faces former NFL kicker Jay Feely, who won the GOP primary with Trump’s blessing.
14. Colorado’s 8th: Rep. Gabe Evans (R)
Evans was set to be among the country’s most vulnerable incumbents this year, but former state Rep. Manny Rutinel has made his path to reelection slightly easier. Rutinel, a progressive, defeated a relatively moderate Democrat for the nomination in the 40 percent Hispanic district. Republicans have attacked Rutinel for his former veganism and his progressive views, but it might not be enough in a district that Trump won by less than 2 points in 2024.
15. Virginia’s 2nd: Rep. Jen Kiggans (R)
This might be Democrats’ first pickup on Election Night, not because Kiggans is particularly weak, but because Virginia is one of the first states to close polls and the Commonwealth is very efficient at counting ballots. The seat was basically 50-50 in 2024, with Trump carrying it by less than a point. Primary and special-election turnout trends indicate that former Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria should win this rematch relatively early in the night.
16. Ohio’s 9th: Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D)*
Democrats have bled support from Northeast Ohio, but Kaptur has hung on thanks in large part to Republicans nominating candidates who haven’t been quite ready for prime time. Kaptur outran the top of the ticket by 7 points in 2024 and still came within a point of losing. But Republicans redrew the district to favor their party even more, and the tenure of the longest-serving woman in congressional history might come to a close. A recent Democratic poll had the race tied, which is not an encouraging sign for Kaptur.
17. Florida’s 22nd: Open (D)*
This redrawn South Florida district supported Trump by more than 10 points in 2024, spurring Democratic Rep. Lois Frankel to move to the 23rd. Marine Corps veteran Casey Askar will seek to finish the job for Republicans over Apple executive Pia Dandiya. Joe Biden won this swingy district in 2020, and if Hispanic voters turn their backs on Trump, Dandiya has a chance at holding on.
18. Florida’s 14th: Rep. Kathy Castor (D)*
Much like Frankel's seat, the GOP redrew Castor’s Tampa Bay district to favor Trump by a little more than 10 points, leading to a race that one strategist described as a “knife fight.” Castor decided to see it through, leaning on the benefit of incumbency. Even though the district has favored Republicans in recent cycles, polling shows Castor holding her own against former Republican state Rep. Mike Beltran.
19. California’s 22nd: Rep. David Valadao (R)*
Democratic redistricting means Trump would have won Valadao’s Central Valley district by less than 2 points. Hispanic voters make up about two-thirds of the district, which could bode well for Democratic swings. But the nominee, progressive school-board member Randy Villegas, could derail Democrats’ chances of flipping the seat.
20. Pennsylvania’s 10th: Rep. Scott Perry (R)
Perry has been in Democrats’ sights for more than six years, but the Harrisburg-area seat has gotten more difficult for the party. Democrats have been shedding working-class voters left and right, and they need to rebuild a new coalition to flip this seat. Democrat Janelle Stelson came within about a point last cycle in a terrible environment for Democrats, and this year she’s built a strong campaign focused more on affordability than on Perry’s ties to Jan. 6, which might resonate more with voters.
21. New York’s 17th: Rep. Mike Lawler (R)
The Hudson Valley-based 17th is the definition of a toss-up race: moderate candidates jabbing back-and-forth in one of the country’s most balanced districts. The moderate Lawler was one of just three Republicans to secure victory in a Harris-won district, and he’s proven himself to be a force in the region. Army veteran Cait Conley is tasked with beating him, and her fundraising prowess shows how badly Democrats want this seat. If Democrats seize the moment, Lawler’s regional strength may not be enough to save him.
22. Washington’s 3rd: Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)
Trump won the southwest Washington district by more than 3 points in 2024, but the moderate and eccentric Gluesenkamp Perez won through her focus on local issues. Unfortunately for her, she won’t have 2024 and 2022 nominee Joe Kent to kick around anymore. She now faces John Braun, the minority leader of the state Senate. Republicans hope she’s alienated herself from the Democratic base enough to cost herself reelection, but they’ll have to make up ground from the GOP performance in the all-party primary.
23. Wisconsin’s 3rd: Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R)
Van Orden is set for a rematch with Democrat Rebecca Cooke. Despite winning two years ago, Van Orden underperformed the top of the ticket by 4 points. With the wind at her back, Cooke has outraised and outspent Van Orden so far this cycle. Most public polls have shown Cooke leading, and outside Democratic groups have poured more than $6 million into the race.
24. Pennsylvania’s 8th: Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R)
Northeast Pennsylvania was the epicenter of Democrats’ Pennsylvania collapse in 2024, culminating in Sen. Bob Casey and Rep. Matt Cartwright getting tossed from office. Democrat Paige Cognetti is looking to rebuild the party's former winning working-class coalition by leaning into an anti-corruption message against Bresnahan, who has frequently faced criticism for his high volume of stock trades. Cognetti’s biggest liability is her record on crime while serving as mayor of Scranton, and Republicans have poured more than $4 million into the race to relitigate her tenure.
25. Texas’ 34th: Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D)*
Gonzalez’s South Texas seat swung 20 points to Trump before Republicans redrew the map to favor their party even more last year. The district shifted from one Trump carried by 4 points to one he would have carried by 10. Hispanic voters have soured on the president and Republicans over the last two years, but even if the swing isn’t as severe as in other areas of the country, Republican Eric Flores is in a strong position to flip the seat thanks to a massive investment from the GOP-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund.
