FIRST IN HOTLINE: Democrats Eye Longshot Nevada District After Poll Finds Statistical Tie
The GOP-held NV-02 is at the far edge of the battleground for Democrats, but an internal poll (Aug. 22-26; 400 LVs; +/-4.9%) has Democrats hopeful they can flip the seat if a blue wave arrives. The Strategies 360 survey found 2024 NV-04 candidate David Flippo (R) leading former state Rep. Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D) within the margin of error, 45%-42%. Lynn Chapman, the conservative Independent American Party’s nominee, received 7% in the poll.
- BACKGROUND. Rep. Mark Amodei (R) is retiring after 15 years and the Trump-backed Flippo won a contentious primary to advance to the general election. A staunch conservative, Flippo has said his top issues are “the economy, immigration, and Shariah law.”
- MOOD. A generic-ballot test of the district found a tight race, with 48% saying they’d back a Republican and 46% saying they’d support a Democrat. President Trump is 8 points underwater in the poll: 46% approve and 54% disapprove. (release)
- HEAVY LIFTING. A Democratic victory requires a remarkable set of circumstances, given the challenges ahead: Trump won NV-02 by 14 points in 2024 and 11 points in 2020; the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter rates the district as Solid Republican; and a Democrat has never won the northern Nevada district. Benitez-Thompson is a well-versed former state legislator, but her candidacy comes two years after Democrats declined to nominate a candidate; Amodei defeated an independent by nearly 20 points.
- THE PATH? But Democrats think those circumstances may have arrived. The Republican field is fractured. Amodei has refused to endorse Flippo, his likely successor, saying the GOP nominee was “not my cup of tea.” Democrats have also sought to tag Flippo as opportunistic after he dropped an NV-04 campaign and switched to NV-02 after Amodei announced his retirement. The DCCC has its eyes on the district as well, placing it on the committee’s Districts in Play list. (Hotline reporting)
- HOTLINE ANALYSIS. The district's partisan lean makes Flippo the clear favorite, but strange things can happen. The district encompasses the state’s “cow counties,” and relations remain tense between the Trump administration and ranchers. The path for Benitez-Thompson contains many ifs: If ranchers remain demoralized; if a national blue wave materializes; and if national Democrats decide an investment in the district is worth it, she could have a shot at flipping the seat.
RACE FOR THE HOUSE: NRCC Launches Coordinated Buys
The NRCC has reserved nearly $8.7 million in coordinated ad buys with GOP nominees in more than 20 competitive races across the country. A Supreme Court ruling earlier this year eliminated limits on how much committees like the NRCC can spend on coordinated campaign efforts. The DCCC hasn’t yet reserved any coordinated ad buys.
-
LEVELS OF THE GAME. Republican committees hold cash-on-hand advantages over their Democratic counterparts and hope to exploit the edge by using discounted TV ad rates that are generally only available to candidates. An appeals court ruled last week that coordinated ad buys are not eligible for those lower rates, but GOP officials appealed the case to the Supreme Court. (Washington Examiner)
-
A SENSE OF WHERE YOU ARE. House GOP leaders canceled the final two weeks of the September session. The House has next week off for Labor Day and is off in October. The week of Sept. 14 will be the final week of session before the midterms. “The decision comes as candidates agitate to get back on the campaign trail and as GOP leaders continue to struggle to maintain control of the House floor.”
-
IRONS IN THE FIRE. “Leaders would recall the House for those canceled weeks if the Senate moves forward with a party-line budget reconciliation package in the meantime.” (Politico)
-
THE CONTROL OF NATURE. House Democrats are weighing punishments after Reps. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-WA 03) and Jared Golden (D-ME 02) crossed the aisle to save a GOP procedural package earlier this week. Some Democrats have suggested kicking Gluesenkamp Perez off the Appropriations Committee, but “others acknowledge that leaders have little leverage against the duo. Golden is leaving the House at the end of this term, and Gluesenkamp Perez is one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the country.” (Politico)
-
HOTLINE ANALYSIS. Punishment for Golden or Gluesenkamp Perez will prove easier said than done. Golden is retiring, so threats of punishment can only go so far. And Gluesenkamp Perez, a moderate in one of the country’s most competitive districts, values her independent brand such that she might welcome a slap on the wrist from party leaders. The looming decision could have long-term ramifications for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who’d really like to be the speaker come Jan. 3. Building unity in the minority is supposed to be the easy part. What will happen when Democrats need to write the laws and the caucus needs to row in the same direction?
CALIFORNIA 14 SPECIAL: Wahab Sworn In
Speaker Mike Johnson swore in Rep. Aisha Wahab (D) on Wednesday. Wahab won a special election to finish the term of disgraced former Rep. Eric Swalwell (D), and she is seeking a full bid this November. She is the first Afghan American elected to Congress. The House now stands at 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats, one independent, and two vacancies. (Hotline reporting)
FLORIDA 16: Dem Internal Finds Tight Race in Red District
A Democratic internal poll (Aug. 25-29; 400 RVs; +/- 4.9%) found former Sarasota Mayor Kelly Kirschner (D) and former congressional staffer Sydney Gruters (R) statistically tied, 40%-39%. President Trump won the district by 14 points in 2024. SEA Research & Political Design conducted the poll. (release)
- HOTLINE ANALYSIS. The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter rates the district Solid Republican, and Gruters, the wife of RNC Chairman Joe Gruters, will raise boatloads of cash. Gruters remains the heavy favorite.
NEW HAMPSHIRE 01: Maura Sullivan Inches Ahead in Open Primary
A Tavern Research poll (Aug. 28-31; 1,068 LVs; +/-3.4%) of the open Democratic primary found 2018 candidate Maura Sullivan (D) leading with 33% and former Portsmouth City Councilor Stefany Shaheen (D) trailing with 27%. Several polls this summer found Sullivan with a lead in the single digits. (release)
- LAST NAMES. Shaheen, the daughter of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D), faces nepotism attacks from Sullivan. An ad for Sullivan “says voters deserve a ‘fighter, not a fancy last name,’ and accuses Shaheen of acting ‘entitled.’” (New York Times)
- HOTLINE ANALYSIS. With its anti-establishment sentiment, 2026 is a difficult year for so-called nepo babies to kickstart congressional careers. Shaheen led early polling, but Sullivan’s spending and message appear to have given her a narrow lead in recent weeks.
