Hotline's primary primer: New Hampshire

WHEN: Polls close at 7 p.m. on Sept. 8.

BIG PICTURE: The Democratic Senate primary is still Rep. Chris Pappas’ race to lose, but there’s some speculation in the final weeks that the race is getting closer than expected. This race is on the edge of the battlefield, but the worsening outlook for Republicans might put it out of reach. Beyond the actual results on Tuesday, watch for which potential 2028 presidential candidates hit the stump in the closing days of the campaign in this early-voting state.

SENATE: Which Sununu again?

Pappas and former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) are expected to compete against each other in November, but both face several opponents in their respective primaries. Pappas, a moderate Democrat backed by retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D), faces scientist Karishma Manzur (D), a Democratic Socialists of America member who’s targeted Pappas’ pro-Israel positions and his support from AIPAC, in the Democratic primary. Sununu, backed by President Trump and the National Republican Senatorial Committee, is vying for the GOP nomination against former Sen. Scott Brown of Massachusetts. Sununu and Brown lost to Shaheen in 2008 and 2014, respectively.

• ANALYSIS: Trump failed to win New Hampshire in each of his three presidential runs, and a Granite State Republican hasn’t won a Senate seat since 2010. Yet Republicans have held onto the governor’s office since 2016 and made inroads to control the state Legislature since 2020. Pappas, who’s no stranger to competitive races, is Democrats’ best chance at holding the seat amid Republicans’ heightened interest. Sununu is bolstered by his well-known last name, one that’s been elected to the House, the Senate, and the governor’s mansion twice. For Pappas and Sununu, the primaries will serve as barometers for how they have unified their respective bases two months out from Election Day.
  • COOK RATING: Lean Democrat

HOUSE: That open-seat sheen

In the 1st District, Pappas’ Senate bid opens a blue-leaning seat in southeastern New Hampshire, and the successive primary has been subject to many of the same pressures facing Democrats elsewhere in the country. 2018 candidate Maura Sullivan, a vice chair of the New Hampshire Democrats and a former Defense Department official, is in a horse race with former Portsmouth City Councilor Stefany Shaheen, the daughter of the senator. Shaheen went negative in ads last month, accusing Sullivan of accepting contributions from major AIPAC donors. The Democratic nominee will face either entrepreneur Anthony DiLorenzo, who has Trump’s endorsement, or 2024 candidate Hollie Noveletsky.

• COOK RATING: Likely Democrat

A HELPING HAND: Everyone wants a piece

Former Vice President Kamala Harris, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, and Sens. Mark Kelly and Cory Booker have endorsed Pappas. Buttigieg campaigned with Pappas in February. In the House race to replace Pappas, Kelly, former White House adviser Rahm Emanuel, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, and Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker have endorsed Stefany Shaheen. New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill and Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger have endorsed Sullivan.

ANALYSIS: Downballot candidates in New Hampshire benefit from the pomp and circumstance of their now-third-in-the-nation presidential primary, should they conform to Democratic National Committee mandates. After November, the state may trigger intrigue if it holds an unsanctioned early primary, but for candidates currently on the ballot, the state’s early status makes their races particularly desirable to potential presidential candidates hoping to forge alliances and show off their campaigning prowess.