House Democrats suffered several setbacks in the closing weeks of the August primaries, when a trio of scandal-plagued Republican incumbents lost renomination or dropped out of races on the edge of the competitive battlefield.
One of those three was Rep. Andy Ogles (R-TN 05). The controversial Middle Tennessee Republican faced allegations of campaign finance violations and inflating his resume, and made comments saying Muslims and homosexuality have no place in America. Ogles’ personal baggage gave Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder (D) more than a puncher’s chance in the newly gerrymandered district that President Trump would have carried by 23 points—the reddest district on the DCCC’s “Districts in Play” list.
Unfortunately for Democrats, Ogles was too toxic for Republican primary voters. They dumped him in favor of former Tennessee Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher (R) despite Trump’s support for the incumbent. Hatcher presents more of a blank slate, and that anonymity might be his biggest strength against the well-funded Molder, who was prepared to litigate Ogles’ record in a clash of contrasts campaign.
But a new internal poll of the sprawling district could give Democrats some hope. The poll (Aug. 19-24; 500 LVs; +/-4.4%) conducted by IMPACT Research for the Molder campaign found Hatcher with 48% and Molder at 40%. An informed ballot, where respondents where given a bios on each candidate before filling out the questionnaire, saw Hatcher’s lead narrow to 4 points.
The question now is whether national Democratic groups will invest the resources necessary to make this race competitive in November. The Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC has $1.5 million on the books in the Nashville media market for the general election. Molder on his own reported $1.6 million cash on hand according to the latest fundraising reports in July, while Hatcher reported $187,000 in the bank as he battled against Ogles. Despite the cash advantage, Molder would need some significant help to get across the finish line.
— Kirk A. Bado
