Hotline's primary primer: Massachusetts

WHEN: Polls close at 8 p.m. on Sept. 1.

BIG PICTURE: The marquee race is with Markey—Sen. Ed Markey (D), that is. The octogenarian progressive is facing a younger challenger claiming it’s time for generational change. The senator easily dispatched a similar challenger six years ago, but after the fiasco with former President Biden’s aborted reelection campaign, the Democratic base in many cases seems primed to hand over the keys to younger leaders.

SENATE: Markey’s déjà vu

The 80-year-old Markey faces his second generational challenge in as many cycles. Rep. Seth Moulton, 47, is attempting to unseat Markey by arguing the octogenarian is too old to serve, an argument similar to that made by former Rep. Joe Kennedy III, who lost to Markey by 11 points in the 2020 primary. Progressives, including Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders and Rep. Ayanna Pressley, steadfastly support Markey’s reelection. Moulton, a Marine Corps veteran, is bolstered by VoteVets and some of his fellow servicemembers in elected office. The Democratic primary winner is the favorite to win in the fall.

• ANALYSIS: Markey’s progressivism is keeping him in contention for another term while his age remains a liability. A few gerontocracy challenges have succeeded this cycle, most involving a left-wing opponent unseating a more-moderate lawmaker. On paper, Markey is more progressive than Moulton, a member of the center-left New Democrat Coalition who now bills himself as “progressive.” The senator, drawing from his successful 2020 playbook, is unabashedly touting his progressive record while honing in on Moulton’s critical comments from 2024 about transgender athletes in girls’ sports. Moulton is portraying himself as the anti-establishment candidate, making his opposition to Minority Leader Chuck Schumer as Democratic leader a central pillar of his candidacy. The congressman has outraised the senator over the past few quarters, and Moulton-aligned spending is outpacing Markey-aligned support roughly 2-to-1. Polling of the primary still shows Markey ahead, either by single or double digits.
  • COOK RATING: Solid Democrat

HOUSE: The bigger they are …

Massachusetts, a state as blue as Violet Beauregarde, won’t host competitive House races this November. But they at least have September, with two older incumbents staring down younger challengers and an open-seat joust for Moulton’s seat.

• Mass.-01. In Western Massachusetts, there’s been scattered discussion of a possible upset against Rep. Richard Neal (D) by teacher Jeromie Whalen (D). The odds remain long: Neal has outspent Whalen by a nearly 10-to-1 margin, and the teacher lacks the progressive endorsements that have fueled many upsets this year. But other ingredients are there. The 77-year-old Neal is much older than his 39-year-old challenger, and the incumbent has the support of AIPAC, a political liability among many Democrats. Neal, for his part, has relied on his lengthy career—and the seniority and institutional support that comes with experience—to support his bid.
  • COOK RATING: Solid Democrat
• Mass.-06. Moulton is off running for Senate, and his district is molting in his absence. Former Biden administration official Dan Koh is a front-runner to replace him, leading the Democratic field in fundraising and boasting an endorsement list that includes Biden, former Vice President Kamala Harris, and an array of labor unions and Biden administration alumni. State Rep. Tram Nguyen has the backing of a slew of state legislators, while fintech executive John Beccia has spent north of $3 million on his own campaign. Koh has touted his ties to Biden at a time when many other Democrats treat the former president as persona non grata, leading to some attacks from opponents.
  • COOK RATING: Solid Democrat
• Mass.-08. Seventy-one-year-old Rep. Stephen Lynch (D) faces 39-year-old attorney Patrick Roath (D) in yet another generational challenge. The David Hogg-led progressive group Leaders We Deserve has pushed Roath’s candidacy, and the challenger also has the support of former Gov. Deval Patrick, to whom Roath was an aide. A poll sponsored by Leaders We Deserve earlier this month found Roath within striking distance—though Democratic primary polls have a spotty record this summer. Lynch, meanwhile, is working to show he possesses vigor. His latest digital ad features him jogging along the beach; he’s running for his political life.
  • COOK RATING: Solid Democrat

STATE: Republicans bank on Baker repeat

Two Republicans are vying to stop Gov. Maura Healey (D) from winning a second term, but whoever clinches the nomination faces an uphill battle. Businessman Mike Minogue is the favorite, touting his entrepreneurial experience and the backing of the state GOP. Former Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority chief administrator Brian Shortsleeve, who worked under former Gov. Charlie Baker, stayed in the race despite not securing the state GOP endorsement, and he has campaigned further to the right than his old boss. Healey faces no opposition in her primary.

• ANALYSIS: It was only four years ago that Baker (R) served in this post. Both Republican candidates are keeping President Trump and MAGA at bay and trying to strike a similar vibe to Baker. But it is just not the right environment for Republicans to succeed, especially against an incumbent.
  • COOK RATING: Solid Democrat

A HELPING HAND: How crazy was Woke 1.0?

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorsed Markey, joining Sanders and Warren. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg endorsed Koh in the 6th District and held a fundraiser with Healey in August.

• ANALYSIS: Markey doesn’t fit neatly into the storylines of the 2026 primary cycle: He’s a progressive senator who is vulnerable to criticisms over his age. Ocasio-Cortez helped Markey defeat Kennedy six years ago. Progressives have seen a wave of support this cycle, especially those endorsed by the now-more-selective Ocasio-Cortez, but in Moulton, Markey faces his most imposing challenger yet.