An endorsement from President Trump just isn’t what it used to be.
Ten of Trump’s endorsed candidates have lost primaries this cycle—five of them were his picks in competitive gubernatorial races. Oklahoma could deliver him a sixth loss.
A bitter two-month runoff, characterized by national polarization over Islam and transgender issues, comes to a head Tuesday between state Attorney General Gentner Drummond (R) and businessman Mike Mazzei (R).
Trump endorsed Mazzei ahead of the June 16 primary, a surprise to some given the host of big statewide names in the race, including state House Speaker Charles McCall (R).
Drummond led the primary with 26.3%, followed closely by Mazzei with 26%. Trump railed Drummond as a “FAKE Republican” as he reupped his endorsement of Mazzei ahead of the runoff.
The runoff is anyone’s game. Drummond has led in contributions in the final sprint as both men also self-fund their bids, and limited polling remains close. Traditional Republicans are largely breaking for Drummond, and Trump-Republicans for Mazzei, pollster Pat McFerron, whose firm Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates, released one of the only public polls ahead of the runoff, told Hotline.
At the same time, McFerron said two things are dragging down the power of Trump’s endorsement: his backing of Pastor Jackson Lahmeyer (R), who dropped his bid for OK-01 after lewd messages between him and a woman who is not his wife surfaced, and support of a planned aluminium smelter in Inola, Oklahoma majority-owned by an United Arab Emirates company.
Drummond sued and then filed a federal motion to block the construction, echoing local concerns of foreign ownership and environmental impacts. Mazzei has sided with Trump in supporting the development.
Drummond and outside groups have used Mazzei’s support to play into anti-Islam sentiment, with one ad saying Mazzei “wants to hand $1 billion in taxpayer money to a Muslim country to build a smelter plant that area farmers and neighbors oppose.”
But Drummond enters this runoff bruised thanks to outside groups pummeling him with negative ads for months, even before the runoff. Club for Growth has dumped $4.3 million into the campaign against Drummond through the School Freedom Fund, which has spent $6.8 million airing ads saying Drummond didn’t enforce a ban on child sex changes and donated to former President Biden’s campaign.
“It's which is worse, being seen as a supporter of transgender surgery for minors or supporter of radical Islam,” McFerron said of each campaign’s closing attacks.
Mazzei also has the backing from term-limited Gov. Kevin Stitt (R), who backed Trump’s pick in early July. And unlike in South Carolina’s runoff, Trump hasn’t extended his endorsement to Drummond.
Whoever emerges is the heavy favorite against state Rep. Cyndi Munson (D), who secured the Democratic nod on the first go around.
— Abby Turner
