Hotline has told readers for more than a year that Iowa will be the center of the political universe in the midterms. Five of the six federally elected positions could change hands in November and Democrats are the slight favorites to flip the governor’s race thanks in large part to their stellar nominee in state Auditor Rob Sand (D).
A confluence of factors has made Iowa competitive. President Trump’s tariffs have severely impacted the rural economy, especially exports of soy beans, and the prolonged war in Iran has raised the price of diesel fuel used to power farm equipment.
With Iowa voters souring on Trump, Democrats see an opportunity to make deep inroads in a state that has shut them out in recent cycles. Both parties have already reserved more than $100 million in ads across all state and federal races—$43 million for Democrats and $58.6 million for Republicans—from Sept. 1 until Election Day.
Tonight as the Field of Dreams game returns the bright lights of MLB to Dyersville, Iowa, let’s step out from the cornfield to take a look at the state of play in Iowa.
Leading the ticket. The blockbuster race to replace retiring Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) is the marquee event. Sand will square off against businessman Zach Lahn (R), who upset Trump’s pick in the GOP primary. Sand has the cash advantage over Lahn, and leads most public polls. Democrats are hopeful that his strong campaign will lift up other downballot candidates.
Key to a Senate majority. Democrats need to net four seats to flip the Senate. Their best pickup opportunities are in North Carolina, Maine, and Ohio. After that, they’ll need to push into more reliably red territory like Iowa. State Rep. Josh Turek (D) is their nominee to replace retiring Sen. Joni Ernst (R). He’s consolidated support from national party figures like former President Obama and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D). Turek will square off against Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-02), a rising star in the party who knows a thing or two about winning difficult races.
Frontlines of the House battlefield. Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-01) and Zach Nunn (R-03) are the most vulnerable members in the delegation. If Democrats want to flip the House, they’ll need to knock off both incumbents. 2024 nominee Christina Bohannan (D) is back for a third run against Miller-Meeks after she came within several hundred votes of knocking her off last cycle, and state Rep. Sarah Trone Garriott (D) will square off against Nunn.
Wave watch. If Democrats are having a good night, they’ll have a pretty decent shot of flipping Hinson’s northeastern district that’s home to Cedar Rapids (and the Field of Dreams). Democrats waved the white flag on the race last cycle, but with Hinson running for Senate, Democrats are highly motivated to carry this now-open seat.
Changing of the guard. Iowa’s most conservative district will get a new member after Rep. Randy Feenstra’s (R-04) gubernatorial campaign flamed out. Siouxland Chamber of Commerce President Chris McGowan (R) sailed through the primary with Trump’s endorsement, and he’ll take over the seat in November.
No chance of flipping. Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) isn’t on the ballot. He’ll remain a senator long after all of us are gone.
— Kirk A. Bado
