Hotline’s primary primer: Kansas

WHEN: Polls close at 8 p.m. on Aug. 4.

BIG PICTURE: The action in Kansas is on the gubernatorial front as Gov. Laura Kelly, one of the few Democratic executives in a red state, tries to muscle her chosen successor through a tough primary.

SENATE: Roger that

Republican Sen. Roger Marshall’s first reelection bid won’t be easy. Pastor Adam Hamilton—the founder of Church of the Resurrection, the nation’s largest United Methodist church—has put this race on the national radar. Hamilton flirted with an independent bid but jumped into the race instead as a Democrat in this GOP-leaning state. Hamilton faces several opponents in the primary: state Sen. Patrick Schmidt, Army veteran Noah Taylor, and 2020 1st District candidate Christy Davis.

• ANALYSIS: Kansas isn’t on Hotline’s Senate Power Rankings, but some factors keep the race interesting ahead of the fall. Marshall underperformed President Trump during his 2020 race against former state Sen. Barbara Bollier (D), receiving roughly 43,000 fewer votes. Several special-interest groups have spent millions criticizing Marshall’s legislative efforts over the past year, particularly over his push for the Credit Card Competition Act. Hamilton outraised Marshall, $3.7 million to $611,000, during the second quarter. Marshall’s general-election strengths lie in Trump’s 16-point victory in 2024 and the incumbent’s $5.4 million war chest.
  • COOK RATING: Solid Republican

HOUSE: Democratic divides

Kansas’ congressional elections aren’t on the general-election battlefield, but a primary in the 3rd District will be another test of establishment-vs.-progressive Democratic divisions.

• Kansas-03. Rep. Sharice Davids (D) survived redistricting after Kansas Republicans couldn’t garner the votes to draw her out, but she must also survive a primary challenge from her left. Tech worker Sarah Preu has criticized Davids for receiving support from AIPAC-aligned groups and calls for a more staunchly progressive approach to Immigration and Customs Enforcement and health care issues. Preu lacks the funding and backing to pose a major threat, but the primary could serve as a test of how well the progressive message can play in the Heartland.
  • COOK RATING: Solid Democrat

STATE: I’ve a feeling we’re not in (Democratic) Kansas anymore

Democrats are trying to secure a third straight term in the governor's mansion in the ruby red Sunflower State, but Kelly’s anointed successor is struggling to gain steam. State Sen. Ethan Corson is facing fellow state Sen. Cindy Holscher and Overland Park Mayor Curt Skoog in the Democratic primary. As Kelly’s heir, Corson is taking heat for her incentives to get the Kansas City Chiefs to hop the border from Missouri. On the Republican side, Trump-backed state Senate President Ty Masterson is the favorite, especially after former Gov. Jeff Coyler bowed out. Masterson's biggest competition may be businessman Philip Sarnecki, who has self-funded his bid and dominates the airwaves.

• ANALYSIS: Kansas is the governor’s seat most likely to flip this cycle, and if Corson can’t dominate the Democratic primary, he’ll likely struggle on a general-election stage. Another blow to Democrats: the waning effects of former Gov. Sam Brownback (R). Democrats have told National Journal they plan to relitigate Brownback's failed tax experiment and the GOP field’s ties to him, but the attack probably won’t be the secret ingredient it was for Kelly.
• COOK RATING: Lean Republican

A HELPING HAND: Trump weighs in on Masterson

Trump endorsed Ty Masterson in March, likely putting him on a glidepath to the Republican nomination. He planned a tele-rally with Masterson less than a week before the primary.

• ANALYSIS: The seven-candidate field in the Republican gubernatorial primary makes it easy for Trump’s endorsement to distinguish one candidate from the noise. The president has taken to tele-rallies over in-person appearances for many races this cycle, and turnout in the primary could indicate whether those events drive enthusiasm among the higher-propensity voters in his base.