Hotline’s primary primer: Michigan

WHEN: Polls close by 9 p.m. on Aug. 4.

BIG PICTURE: The Democratic Senate primary is the biggest election in the country on Tuesday. Rep. Haley Stevens and 2018 gubernatorial candidate Abdul El-Sayed are playing out every major recrimination in the Democratic Party going back to 2016, and the fight could serve as a preview for brawls to come in the 2028 race for the White House.

SENATE: A little bit of enthusiasm

The primary to replace retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D) could end up more bitter than the general election. Stevens and El-Sayed are battling in a head-to-head showdown after state Sen. Mallory McMorrow suspended her campaign in July. Stevens carries support from establishment Democrats, including Peters, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, and former Sen. Debbie Stabenow, while El-Sayed carries support from national progressives, including Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and the UAW. Whoever clears the primary will face 2024 nominee Mike Rogers, the presumptive GOP nominee, as he seeks redemption from his narrow loss to now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin in 2024.

ANALYSIS: A proxy war between moderates and progressives is complicating Democrats' chances in a must-win state. Stevens argues she’s more electable than El-Sayed, with the ability to win over independents in the swing state. El-Sayed retorts that his progressive pitch would expand his coalition and turn out the Democratic base, particularly among younger voters. El-Sayed appears to hold a ground-game advantage, helping him outpace Stevens in grassroots fundraising. Yet several outside groups, including the AIPAC-aligned United Democracy Project, have spent $61 million on pro-Stevens advertising, including spots that highlight the congresswoman’s past support from former President Obama. Rogers hopes the Democratic primary’s divisiveness, his early glidepath to the GOP nomination, and his improved fundraising numbers will help him become the first Michigan Republican elected to the Senate since 1994. Amid Democrats’ primary woes, Michigan stands as Hotline’s second-most likely seat to flip.

• COOK RATING: Toss Up

HOUSE: Michigan left turn?

The Wolverine State is home to four competitive general-election races this year, but before then, there are five districts holding primaries worth keeping eyes on.

• Michigan-01. Rep. Jack Bergman (R) is running for reelection in this safely red district, but he faces a self-funding opponent and local turmoil. 2022 11th District candidate Matthew DenOtter (R) has spent more than $1.2 million this cycle, more than triple Bergman’s spending, and holds nearly $2 million on hand. The 79-year-old Bergman boasts a vital endorsement from President Trump, but local legislators split from him after he supported a state Senate candidate they disliked.
  • COOK RATING: Solid Republican
• Michigan-07. Three Democrats are racing for the chance to challenge Rep. Tom Barrett (R) in a primary that has become emblematic of the Democratic Party’s divisions. Former Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink and former Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam, two mainstream Democrats, were thought to be in a two-way race. But progressive activist William Lawrence has surged onto the scene, riding a wave of anti-establishment anger and distaste over data centers. Democrats worry that Lawrence, with his leftist views and history of controversial comments, could help Barrett’s reelection odds, but they’ve failed to coalesce behind either Brink or Maasdam.
  • COOK RATING: Toss Up
• Michigan-10. Both parties are holding primaries in this competitive district vacated by Rep. John James (R), who is running for governor. Army veteran Mike Bouchard Jr. (R) has the backing of Trump and has likely sealed the GOP nomination. Three Democrats are seeking their party’s nomination, led by former special-victims prosecutor Christina Hines, who has earned a healthy mix of local endorsements. She will face former Biden administration official Eric Chung, who collected more than a dozen endorsements from congressional incumbents, and former Pontiac Mayor Tim Greimel, who has the backing of many local unions.
  • COOK RATING: Lean Republican
• Michigan-11. Leading the field to succeed Rep. Stevens is state Senate President Pro Tem Jeremy Moss (D), who has the endorsement of Whitmer and AIPAC-aligned groups. Attorney Aisha Farooqi (D) is running a progressive campaign, garnering support from Rep. Ro Khanna and the Michigan Democratic Party’s Progressive Caucus in the process.
  • COOK RATING: Solid Democrat
• Michigan-13. State Rep. Donavan McKinney is hoping to be the next progressive to unseat an incumbent, making a strong challenge to Rep. Shri Thanedar (D). Thanedar has the backing of House Democratic leadership, but he has never been a seamless fit in the majority-Black district, and McKinney has earned support from local progressives and Black leaders alike.
  • COOK RATING: Solid Democrat

STATE: A presidential bailout

Trump bailed out Rep. John James with an endorsement after he had struggled to command the field. Opponents called him vulnerable for losing twice statewide already. He faces 2022 candidate Perry Johnson (R), who has self funded his campaign. On the Democratic side, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson is the overwhelming favorite against Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson, though he did snag the Teamsters endorsement. Democrats are feeling increasingly bullish about keeping their grip on the governorship now that former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan has dropped his independent bid.

• ANALYSIS: Republican House members have been defeated by well-funded outsider gubernatorial candidates numerous times this cycle. But while James isn’t the strongest candidate, he’ll likely survive the primary. Unlike health care executive Rick Jackson (R) in Georgia, Johnson’s spending is falling flat without a compelling personal story, and with lingering drama over being disqualified from the 2022 primary ballot.
  • COOK RATING: Lean Democratic

A HELPING HAND: Senate race gathers 2028 hopefuls

Whitmer endorsed Stevens in late July, just before early voting began. Ocasio-Cortez endorsed El-Sayed and rallied alongside him this month, as did Sanders, Warren, and Sen. Chris Van Hollen. Khanna endorsed both El-Sayed and William Lawrence in the 7th District race, but Ocasio-Cortez has been careful to avoid associating with Lawrence. Slotkin endorsed Matt Maasdam in the 7th.

• ANALYSIS: Though Whitmer has said she would not run for president in 2028, Stevens’ performance could give a further indication of her popularity in the swing (and now early-primary) state, potentially changing her calculus. On the other side of the Senate race, Van Hollen’s support for El-Sayed indicates his shift toward the progressive wing of the party. Should Ocasio-Cortez decide not to run in 2028, look to Van Hollen to fill the progressive vacuum in the field.