FIRST IN HOTLINE: FL-22 Internal Poll Finds Statistical Tie in Redrawn District
An internal poll from GQR (June 18-25; 400 LVs; +/-4.9%) for Apple executive Pia Dandiya (D) found her statistically tied, 45%-46%, with entrepreneur Belinda Keiser (R), one of the leading Republicans in a still-unsettled primary.
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OTHER NUMBERS. The survey found President Trump with 41% favorable and 53% unfavorable ratings. In a generic ballot test, Republicans led within the margin of error, 45%-43%. (release)
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HOTLINE ANALYSIS. Mid-cycle redistricting turned the 22nd into a newly Republican-leaning district, but Democrats hope Dandiya can hold off the offense. The GOP primary remains in flux, with four Republicans entering July with more than $1 million on hand. Both parties are still trying to get a handle on the new shapes of the battlefield, and this internal poll is intended to project legitimacy for Dandiya in this new, GOP-leaning district.
RACE FOR THE HOUSE: DCCC Deals With Backlash
After voters have thrice rejected DCCC-backed candidates in competitive primaries, the committee is defending its record, arguing primary investments are sometimes needed to ensure a strong nominee.
- TIMES ARE HARD. “The job of the House Democratic campaign arm this year, its backers say, is not to be neutral. It is to regain control of the House of Representatives.”
- YOU’RE AFRAID TO PAY THE FEE. The campaign arm argues that pushing stronger candidates through the primaries will allow the party to more effectively allocate resources through competitive districts. (New York Times)
- SO YOU FIND YOURSELF SOMEBODY. According to Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Emeriti Pramila Jayapal (D-WA 07), the DCCC apologized to the CPC after failing to keep the progressive group informed about its decisions to place a CA-22 candidate on its Red to Blue list.
- WHO CAN DO THE JOB FOR FREE. “If the DCCC doesn’t change its election strategy, it runs the risk of members not paying their dues to the committee. Dues are already being affected by redistricting, which has cut the number of members who pay the party’s campaign arm.” (NOTUS)
HOUSE POLLING ROUNDUP: Lawler Leads in Marquee Race
A co/efficient poll (July 20-22; 1,292 LVs; +/-2.71%) in NY-17 found Rep. Mike Lawler (R) leading Army veteran Cait Conley (D), 50%-45%. On President Trump, 44% said they approve of the job he’s doing, and 51% said they disapprove. (release)
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HOTLINE ANALYSIS. Lawler will likely need a healthy number of ticket-splitters to achieve reelection, and the poll is a strong showing for him in that respect, winning over nearly a quarter of registered Democrats in the sample. Conley won over about 14% of Republicans polled. The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter rates the race a Toss Up.
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VA-02. A Tulchin Research poll (July 9-13; 700 LVs) from the Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC found former Rep. Elaine Luria (D) tied with Rep. Jen Kiggans (R), 47%-47%. (Politico)
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HOTLINE ANALYSIS. The poll found Trump’s net favorability at -15%, a welcome sign for Luria. But in this rematch, voters are familiar with both nominees, and Luria may have a difficult time tying Kiggans to the president.
COLORADO 08: After Deleted Posts Surface, Democrat Says Vegan Views Have Changed
State Rep. Manny Rutinel (D), “in since-deleted posts made nearly a decade ago on the social media site Reddit, voiced support for a movement that aims to put animals on the same legal footing as humans and in turn prohibit their slaughter for food and other uses.”
- THERE HAVE BEEN WORSE REDDIT POSTS. Rutinel, a former vegan, said a documentary inspired those stances, which have loosened in the years since.
- A RANCHER AND A FORMER VEGAN WALK INTO A BAR. “His changing views on meat could be politically helpful: The 8th District, which spans Denver’s northeast suburbs into Greeley, is arguably Colorado’s agricultural capital.” CO-08 is expected to be a hotly contested race this fall. (Colorado Sun)
PENNSYLVANIA: In Tight Races, Republicans Get Union Support
“Organized labor has traditionally backed Democratic candidates,” but Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-01) and Rob Bresnahan (R-08) have earned key labor endorsements in their competitive reelection campaigns. Fitzpatrick was the only Republican to receive the backing of the Pennsylvania AFL-CIO, and the Pennsylvania State Education Association backed Fitzpatrick even though his opponent was previously a member.
- WORKING HARD. The endorsements “have become a striking departure - underscoring some unions' willingness to reward incumbents' loyalty to give labor a voice in a Republican caucus that may not always work in their interests.” (Philadelphia Inquirer)
TENNESSEE: Federal Judges Allow Tennessee Gerrymander to Stand
“A federal court's three-judge panel denied a preliminary injunction to halt the implementation of Tennessee Republicans’ gerrymander of Memphis.” (Memphis Commercial Appeal)
