Gubernatorial map shifts further in Democrats' direction

ARIZONA: Andy Biggs v. Hobbs Matchup Set

Rep. Andy Biggs (R-05), backed by President Trump, swept the GOP primary to take on Gov. Katie Hobbs (D). With 84% of the votes counted, Biggs got 73.4% and Rep. David Schweikert (R-01) got 14.7%. Hobbs ran unopposed. (AP)

STATE OF THE STATES: GOV Races Swing Toward Dems In Must Pick-Up Seats

The gubernatorial map shifted further in Democrats' direction in Hotline’s latest rankings of races most likely to flip as Democrats seize on “frustration with Washington and anti-establishment sentiment.” Iowa, with state Auditor Rob Sand (D) at the helm, is Democrats' best flip opportunity. Sand wasted no time recasting businessman Zach Lahn (R) “as a carpetbagger from Kansas and an experienced political operative,” an attack buoyed by his nearly $18 million on hand.

• BUCKEYE BUMP. Ohio jumped to No. 5 as the millions spent by 2024 candidate Vivek Ramaswamy (R) and Republicans against former state Health Director Amy Acton (D) on her pandemic response hasn’t moved the needle.
• ON DEFENSE. The DGA is up early with ads in Wisconsin as Democrats duke out whether a progressive or moderate is best to take on Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-07) in a top flip opportunity for Republicans. Oregon made its first appearance on the rankings this cycle. Gov. Tina Kotek’s (D) reelection is shaping up to be a referendum “during a time when the state has struggled with housing costs and homelessness.” (Hotline reporting)
• NEW HAMPSHIRE. The Granite State didn’t make Hotline’s power rankings, but 2024 candidate Cinde Warmington’s (D) campaign argues the race is in play given Gov. Kelly Ayotte’s (R) low approval ratings, a worsening national environment for Republicans, and her support of Trump. In a memo first shared with Hotline, Warmington’s campaign outlines that Ayotte has the worst approval ratings of a first-term New Hampshire governor in more than 30 years, according to the latest UNH Survey Center poll. And while Ayotte's campaign is up with negative TV ads, the latest polling has Warmington within five points of her, without the Democrat’s campaign spending on advertising yet, the memo outlines. (Hotline reporting)
• HOTLINE ANALYSIS. New Hampshire’s governor’s race was one of the most closely watched statewide races in 2024. But unseating incumbent governors is always an uphill battle. For now, national Democrats have focused their resources on other open flip opportunities like Iowa and Georgia in the midterms. The northeast has a storied history with Republican governors in states that lean Democratic federally. The midterms will test whether a New England Republican like Ayotte can withstand a worsening environment for Republicans.

POLLING ROUNDUP: Joe Lombardo, Aaron Ford Tied in Dem-Commissioned Poll

A Public Policy Polling survey (July 15-16; 558 voters; +/-4.2%) commissioned by the DGA found Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) and state Attorney General Aaron Ford (D) tied, each with 44% and 12% unsure. 45% of those polled have an unfavorable opinion of Lombardo.

• HOTLINE ANALYSIS. Around this time in 2022, former Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) was narrowly leading in polling averages before the tide turned for Lombardo around Labor Day. Ford is giving Lombardo a run for his money, but if he wants to start leading come fall as Lombardo did in 2022, he’s going to need to get on the airwaves and capitalize on Lombardo’s unfavorability. (Nevada Independent)

• MAINE. A UNH Survey Center poll (July 15-20; 1,178 LVs; +/-2.9%) found former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree (D) at 49%, lawyer Bobby Charles (R) at 35%, and state Sen. Rick Bennett (I) at 6%. 1% backed someone else and 8% were undecided. (release)

• HOTLINE ANALYSIS. This race has stayed insulated from the Democratic fall out on the Senate side. If there was any hope for Charles that oyster farmer Graham Platner's (D) exit would boost his chances, it’s far gone now. Charles is further right than Collins, and doesn’t seem to be capturing her more moderate voters.

• MINNESOTA. A KSTP/SurveyUSA poll (July 15-20; 478; +/-5.4%) found MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell (R) leading the GOP field with 35%, followed by state House Speaker Lisa Demuth (R) with 26%, 2022 candidate Kendall Qualls (R) with 11%, and other candidates with 5%. 22% were undecided. (KSTP)

• HOTLINE ANALYSIS. This poll was conducted right after President Trump endorsed Lindell. Even in a state like Minnesota, the endorsement will be paramount in this primary, especially given how weak the state party is. There was no question that Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) was going to win this race before the endorsement. The concern now for Republicans, if Lindell is their nominee, is that Democrats will win the tied state House and expand their one-seat margin in the state Senate.

• VERMONT. A UNH Survey Center poll (July 15-20; 560; +/-4.1%) of the Democratic primary for governor found 52% of voters undecided. Economist Amanda Janoo (D) got 26%, child care advocate Aly Richards (D) got 19%, and 3% chose someone else.

• HEAD-TO-HEAD. In hypothetical general election matchups, Gov. Phil Scott (R) led Janoo, 44%-33%, with 17% undecided. Scott also led Richards, 43%-35%, with 17% undecided. (release)

• HOTLINE ANALYSIS. Scott is his own entity in the Republican party, and despite worsening national headwinds, he will likely emerge unscathed.

AD ROUNDUP: Tennessee Independent Launches Seven-Figure Ad Campaign

Entrepreneur David Hatley (I) launched a seven-figure statewide ad campaign in his self-funded independent bid for governor. In the first ad, Hatley touts building nine companies in northeast Tennessee and creating 750 jobs. He says: “The career politicians have had their turn. All talk, all promises, all answering to somebody. I answer to nobody but Tennessee.” (release)

• ON THE DEM SIDE. Memphis City Councilwoman Jerri Green (D) launched her statewide ad campaign criticizing school vouchers and public school underfunding. Titled “School Is More Than Just A Building,” Green says she’ll “fully fund public schools, de-fund the voucher program, and support special education.”
• WISCONSIN. Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley (D) is launching a six-figure TV ad buy after he hopped back in the race and snagged Gov. Tony Evers’ (D) endorsement. In the spot, titled “Choice,” Crowley takes a swing at state Rep. Francesca Hong (D), saying “Republicans have made their choice, spending millions of dollars to prop up candidates they know they can beat.” He touts Evers endorsement, and support from labor unions and progressives. (release)
• ANOTHER ONE. Hong already has her sights on the general election in her latest digital ad. Hong says Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-07) “sides with the powerful and not the people.” Hong, who is leading the fractured primary, says Wisconsinites need “a governor who can build a movement of working class” people and vows to tax the rich and stop data centers. (release)
• APOLOGIES TO WISCONSIN TVS. Greater Milwaukee Committee President Joel Brennan (D) released a new ad attacking Hong, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (D), and Crowley as he struggled to break through a crowded field. In the spot, backed by a six-figure statewide buy, Brennan says “Madison Insiders want you to think these are the only choices you have for governor, but they’ll all lose to Republicans in November.” The ad will air on broadcast, cable, and streaming. (release)

FLORIDA: David Jolly Pushes for Data Center Moratorium in Contrast With Byron Donalds

Former Rep. David Jolly (D) “reiterated his push to pause data center construction statewide,” slamming Rep. Byron Donalds (R-19) for his stance on data center construction. The move comes after Politico reported that “Donalds has received five- and six-figure contributions from multiple developers that are pursuing or previously proposed data center projects in Florida.” (Politico)

• AT A LATER DATE. A state judge will decide by next Monday whether former DOGE adviser James Fishback (R) meets the residency requirements to run for governor after Lt. Gov. Jay Collins (R) filed a lawsuit. “Fishback, who spent close to three hours on the witness stand, acknowledged in court that he voted in Washington D.C. in November 2020.” (Politico)

MICHIGAN: Infidelity Rumors Break Out in State’s Governor Race

Rep. Hillary Scholten (D-03) has publicly accused 2022 candidate Perry Johnson (R) of “spreading false claims about her, including an unsubstantiated infidelity rumor.” Johnson originally posted a series of social media messages about a rumor surrounding Scholten and Rep. John James (R-10) being involved in a romantic relationship. Scholten has “forcefully rejected the insinuations.” (Washington Examiner)

WISCONSIN: Dems Ask Election Officials to Allow Voters to Change Absentee Votes

The state Democratic Party is asking the state election commission to “allow voters who already cast an absentee ballot to vote again” following a tumultuous week where Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez (D) dropped out of the race and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley (D) hopped back in.

• NO REDOS. “More than 80,000 ballots have already been returned,” and “any voter who already returned an absentee ballot cast for Rodriguez would not be able to get a new ballot, based on guidance approved by the bipartisan Wisconsin Elections Commission earlier this month.” (AP)