July 15, 2026, 3:19 p.m.
WHEN: Polls close at 9 p.m. on July 21.
BIG PICTURE: A handful of competitive House races will solidify nominees in competitive races that could determine control of the lower chamber. Meanwhile, the specter of Kari Lake, a two-time failed statewide candidate thanks in large part to her fanatical election denialism, hangs over the governor’s race. Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) narrowly beat Lake four years ago, and Democrats will try to paint the eventual GOP nominee in her image.
HOUSE: Duels in the desert
Arizona is home to several competitive primaries, including two in an open toss-up seat. Arizona-06 will be competitive this fall, but not in the primary—Marine Corps veteran JoAnna Mendoza (D) has cleared the field to take on Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R).
- Arizona-01. Rep. David Schweikert (R) left the House to run for governor, opening up a toss-up seat with crowded primaries on both sides. Former NFL kicker Jay Feely has the backing of President Trump in the GOP primary, but former state Rep. Joseph Chaplik has the district-level credentials after representing Scottsdale in the statehouse for years. Feely, Chaplik, and tech executive John Trobough are each angling to sell themselves as the Trump candidate. On the Democratic side, 2024 nominee Amish Shah is back in the race, but his underperformance last cycle compared to up-ballot candidates like Sen. Ruben Gallego and former Vice President Kamala Harris worries some Democrats. 2024 candidate Marlene Galán-Woods has the backing of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and other major Democratic groups, and the primary has proven contentious.
- COOK RATING: Toss Up
- Arizona-04. Like many Democratic incumbents this year, Rep. Greg Stanton faces a primary challenge from a progressive. Activist Kai Newkirk (D), known for interrupting 2014 Supreme Court oral arguments to demand a reversal of the Citizens United decision, is leading a long-shot outsider bid to bring down Stanton. But some groups that had endorsed Newkirk, like the Young Democrats of Arizona, have revoked their support, citing unspecified “concerning patterns of behavior.”
- COOK RATING: Solid Democrat
- Arizona-05. Rep. Andy Biggs (R) is running for governor, and two Republicans are battling for the nomination to his safe red seat: construction-company owner Daniel Keenan and former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb. Lamb has Trump’s endorsement, but Keenan has attacked Lamb over reports that he has used his position to threaten and intimidate women he had sexted.
- COOK RATING: Solid Republican
STATE: Republicans saddle up to face Hobbs
The GOP primary for governor is a test of who can best challenge Hobbs, considered the most vulnerable Democratic governor this cycle, and Biggs’s MAGA accolades are winning the fight. Biggs has run laps around Schweikert’s moderate appeal to Republicans and independents. He boasts an endorsement from the late right-wing activist Charlie Kirk, as well as the coveted Trump backing. With two other long-shot candidates in the race, Biggs is the all-but-certain favorite for the nomination. Hobbs is running unopposed for renomination.
- ANALYSIS: Biggs’s MAGA appeal could put him at a disadvantage in November. Before the Democratic headwinds picked up, it seemed that any Republican slightly more formidable than Lake could defeat Hobbs. But as voters are increasingly frustrated with Washington, this race has shifted in Hobbs’s favor.
- COOK RATING: Lean Democrat
A HELPING HAND: Mark Kelly looms large
Sen. Mark Kelly endorsed Galán-Woods a week before the primary, making him the only national Democrat to intervene in a contested primary in the Grand Canyon State. Kelly, Sens. Ruben Gallego and Elissa Slotkin, and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg endorsed Mendoza in Arizona-06. Buttigieg planned to rally with Mendoza late last month but canceled the visit. Kelly, Gallego, and Buttigieg also endorsed 2024 2nd District nominee Jonathan Nez, who is again running in the district. Kelly has invested in both Mendoza’s and Nez’s races along with Hobbs’s reelection campaign.
- ANALYSIS: With his endorsement, Kelly lends some of his popularity in the state to Galán-Woods, who already has the backing of the DCCC. Otherwise, national Democrats are focusing more on battleground races that already have de facto nominees.
AS SEEN ON TV
Hobbs is leaning on her working-class background in a cycle defined by affordability. In the debut spot of her multimillion-dollar ad campaign, titled “Work,” the narrator highlights how Hobbs “worked fast food and drove Uber to get by” and “helped families in need as a social worker.” A Spanish-language ad touches on Hobbs's Uber and social-work jobs as well, but also talks about how she helped women escape domestic violence.
Galán-Woods’ introductory ad explains that her family fled Cuba, showing clips from her career as a broadcast journalist, then pivots into discussing the issue of rising prices.
