FIRST IN HOTLINE: Democratic Internal Poll Finds Professor ‘Within Striking Distance’ of Carey in OH-15
A poll (June 23-25; 550LVs; +/-4.4%) from the Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC found Rep. Mike Carey (R-OH 15) leading former Ohio State University professor Don Leonard (D) 45%-40%, “within striking distance.” The poll, first shared with Hotline, was conducted by Hart Research Associates and found Libertarian Brennan Barrington receiving 3%.
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THE TRUMP AND THE GENERIC. The survey found President Trump with 44% favorable and 55% unfavorable ratings in the district. A generic ballot test found Democrats leading 47%-44%. (release)
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NO PEACE FOR THE BUCKEYES. The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter rates the race as Solid Republican, but the HMP nonetheless reserved nearly $2 million in ad buys in Columbus for the fall.
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HOTLINE ANALYSIS. The poll highlights Carey’s incumbent strength as he notably outperforms the generic ballot test. The district remains a heavy lift for Democrats, but if the theorized blue wave does arrive, Leonard could prove a threat. With fewer competitive districts and more money in politics, the HMP is seeking to expand the battlefield.
POLLING ROUNDUP: Vulnerable Rio Grande Valley Democrat in Margin-of-Error Race
An internal poll (June 14-16; 400 LVs; +/-5%) for former federal prosecutor Eric Flores (R) found him leading Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-TX 34) within the margin of error, 44%-41%. (release)
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HOTLINE ANALYSIS. The Hispanic-majority district is one of the GOP’s top targets this fall, and the poll further emphasizes the district’s competitiveness. TX-34 was one of 13 districts to vote for President Trump in 2024 but elect a Democrat to Congress, but Texas’ mid-cycle redistricting made the district a couple of points redder. The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter rates the contest a Toss Up.
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WI-03. An HMP poll (June 20-25; 535 LVs; +/-4.4%) conducted by FM3 Research found 2024 nominee Rebecca Cooke (D) leading Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R) 50%-46%, within the margin of error. (Politico)
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HOTLINE ANALYSIS. Democrats have long targeted the controversial Van Orden, and with a friendly environment, Cooke has the best opportunity yet.
NEW YORK 21: Potential Third-Party Candidate Withdraws After Trump Meeting
Assemblyman Robert Smullen (R) withdrew his name from the ballot under the Conservative Party line after a meeting with President Trump in the Oval Office. Smullen lost the GOP nomination to Trump-endorsed businessman Anthony Constantino (R) in a bitter primary. Smullen would have posed a major vote-splitting threat to Constantino in the race to succeed Rep. Elise Stefanik (R). (New York Times)
PENNSYLVANIA 01: Democrat Issues Cease-and-Desist Over Accusatory Ads
Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie (D) sent a cease-and-desist letter to Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R) for advertisements purporting that Harvie is “currently under criminal investigation for stealing taxpayer money.” Harvie’s campaign says he is not and never was under investigation. (Philadelphia Inquirer)
SOUTH CAROLINA 01: Democrat Raises North of a Million in GOP-Favored District
Navy veteran Nancy Lacore (D) announced raising $1.2 million in Q2 and holding $397,000 in cash on hand. Lacore will face Charleston County Councilwoman Jenny Honeycutt (R) in the bid for outgoing Rep. Nancy Mace’s (R) seat. (Punchbowl News)
