The deserts of Arizona don’t often see tidal activity, but this fall, Democrats are hoping a blue wave crashes over the state. An internal poll shared exclusively with Hotline found a Democratic challenger within the margin of error in AZ-02, the right-leaning district that encompasses about half the state and reaches into the suburbs of Phoenix.
The poll (500 LVs; June 11-15; +/-4.4%) found Rep. Eli Crane (R) leading 2024 nominee Jonathan Nez (D) 44%-41% with 9% undecided. Neither Crane nor Nez face a primary challenger next month, allowing them to save their cash—Crane entered April with $2.3 million on hand, and Nez trailed with $1.4 million. The poll was conducted by GBAO Strategies for the Nez campaign.
The race is a rematch of 2024, when Crane defeated Nez by 9 points while President Trump carried the district by 15. The congressman’s margin was closer to that of 2024 SEN nominee Kari Lake (R), who won AZ-02 by 8 points despite her eventual loss to Sen. Ruben Gallego (D).
Nez is back, and this time with support he wasn’t afforded in 2024. Sensing a battlefield tilting in their favor, the DCCC included Nez on its Red to Blue list, and if the political environment remains hostile to the president, Nez might get the resources he lacked two years ago. The survey found Trump’s approval in the district underwater, with only a 46% approval rating. The poll also found lesser-known Libertarian Curtis Goodwin garnering 7%, which could prove unhelpful to Crane if he pulls Republican votes away.
Nez’s service as a former president of the Navajo Nation is especially helpful in AZ-02, which is about 20% Native American, most of whom are Navajo. In 2024, Nez won 69% of the vote in Apache County, which is about three-quarters Native—former Vice President Kamala Harris won 59% in Apache that year, according to the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.
A former Navy SEAL, Crane defeated Rep. Tom O'Halleran (D) in 2022 after redistricting shifted the lines in favor of Republicans, and he embraced the right wing of his party. Crane demanded the decertification of Arizona’s 2020 election results, helped oust former Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) as speaker, and offered numerous conspiracy theories about the assassination attempts against Trump.
Crane fended off a 2024 primary challenge from a Republican who received some revenge-tour funding from a McCarthy-aligned PAC, but he hasn’t faced a truly competitive general election race. If Nez gets the help he needs, that could change.
— Zach Blackburn
