Is the Republican gerrymander in Tennessee enough to save Rep. Andy Ogles (R-TN 05)? A Democratic internal poll obtained exclusively by Hotline shows that Republicans might not have a cakewalk in the new district that stretches from Memphis to the Nashville suburbs.
The poll (May 11-13; 558 LVs; +/-4.1%) conducted by Impact Research for Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder (D), the presumptive Democratic nominee, found Ogles leading in a head-to-head, 47%-41% with 12% undecided, in the redrawn district. While outside the poll’s margin of error, Molder is within striking distance of the embattled two-term incumbent.
Ogles, reportedly in line for a House Freedom Caucus leadership position in the next Congress, has courted controversy over inflammatory social media posts about Muslims and the LGBTQ+ community, and was under federal investigation for alleged campaign finance violations before the Justice Department dropped the case.
Molder has the resources to make his case against Ogles. He holds a $1.2 million cash-on-hand advantage according to the latest campaign finance reports. Modler’s campaign started gaining momentum last year and partially inspired Tennessee Republicans to shore up Ogles in their redraw following the Supreme Court’s ruling in Louisiana v Callais earlier this year. They cracked the last remaining Democratic stronghold in Memphis and shifted TN-05 from the counties to the south of Nashville to one that sprawls across 17 counties. President Trump carried the old district by 18 points and would have carried the new one by 23 points. Of the 44 districts on Democrats' offensive target list, TN-05 is the most titled toward Trump.
Ogles is known to two-thirds of the new electorate, and 31% of voters have a favorable view, 32% have an unfavorable view and 36% can’t rate, according to the polling memo. Molder is only at 31% name ID, and among voters who can rate him, 15% have a favorable view and 16% have an unfavorable view. The poll also found Republicans with a generic ballot advantage of 11 points.
Apart from a checkbook, Molder has another valuable resource in the form of his father-in-law Craig Fitzhugh, the longtime former leader of statehouse Democrats.
Fitzhugh represented the rural communities just outside of Memphis for decades before retiring in 2019. He’s now the mayor of Ripley, a small town north of Memphis in the new western portions of TN-05. He’s been active on the campaign trail for his son-in-law, leveraging his deep roots in the new parts of the district.
Republicans are unfazed by Molder.
“Democrats’ delusion is reaching new heights if they think they have a chance in strong Republican districts like TN-05,” NRCC spokesman Reilly Richardson said in a statement.
— Kirk A. Bado
kbado@nationaljournal.com
