June 9, 2026, 4:57 p.m.
WHEN: Polls close at 8 p.m. on June 16.
BIG PICTURE: President Trump’s endorsements loom large in several open races. The marquee contest is the expensive race to replace term-limited Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) as the halfway point of primary season looms.
SENATE: Closing down an open seat
The departure of Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R) to become Homeland Security secretary in March opened up his seat ahead of November. Stitt appointed former energy executive Alan Armstrong (R) to succeed Mullin, but Armstrong cannot run for a full term according to state law. Rep. Kevin Hern (R-01) is the front-runner for the nomination after Trump endorsed him. Hern faces a handful of low-profile Republican opponents, including country singer Gary Ty England and retired firefighter Brian Ragain. Several Democrats are running for the seat, but none are expected to defeat the eventual GOP nominee in the general.
- ANALYSIS: Hern quickly consolidated support after Trump announced Mullin’s appointment, avoiding a competitive GOP primary. Hern, once the chair of the Republican Study Committee and a former contender for speaker, is now on a glidepath to becoming the next senator from the Sooner State.
- COOK RATING: Solid Republican
HOUSE: Hern’s seat up for grabs
An opening in the Senate made an opening in the House.
- Okla.-01: As Hern cruises to the Senate, multiple Republican candidates lined up for the Tulsa-area seat, including Oklahoma Corporation Commissioner Kim David, state Rep. Mark Tedford, and pastor Jackson Lahmeyer, an activist and 2022 Senate candidate. But only Lahmeyer got the Trump endorsement, putting him in the driver’s seat in this deep-red turf.
- COOK RATING: Solid Republican
STATE: A Boomer Sooner runoff looms
The race to replace Stitt has attracted millions of dollars in spending thanks to self-funding candidates and outside PACs. The field remained unsettled until Trump backed former state Sen. Mike Mazzei (R), but it will head to a runoff if no candidate clinches 50 percent. Before Trump’s endorsement, state Attorney General Gentner Drummond (R) and state House Speaker Charles McCall (R) led the field. Club for Growth-affiliated groups have spent over $4 million opposing Drummond’s candidacy. Also running is former state Sen. Jake Merrick (R). On the Democratic side, state Rep. Cyndi Munson is expected to win the nomination.
- ANALYSIS: Trump’s endorsement came as a shock. Mazzei has trailed other candidates in available polling and has mostly relied on self-funding. As of now, it doesn’t seem Trump’s endorsement will help Mazzei avoid a runoff.
- COOK RATING: Solid Republican
A HELPING HAND: All Trump all the time
In deep-red Oklahoma, Trump’s endorsements are the only show in town.
- ANALYSIS: Trump unveiled his picks in the Sooner State early, endorsing Hern in March and Lahmeyer and Mazzei last month, well before the start of early voting. With the Republicans running vying for the president’s support, the only question will be how far his endorsement reaches. Trump needs Mazzei to win after striking out with Rep. Randy Feenstra in Iowa’s GOP gubernatorial primary.
AS SEEN ON TV
School Freedom Fund Oklahoma, a group affiliated with Club for Growth Action and School Freedom Fund, aired an ad last month that dubs Drummond “America's wokest RINO.” The 30-second spot says the state attorney general’s office funded the Diversity Center of Oklahoma, which allegedly “helps girls transition into boys without parental consent and hosted a trans queen story time.”
McCall aired an ad touting his work outlawing sex changes for minors and banning boys from girls sports. In the 30-second spot, McCall chops a banana in half, saying “cutting this banana does not make it an orange,” in reference to gender-reassignment surgeries.
