Hotline's primary primer: South Carolina

WHEN: Polls close at 7 p.m. on June 9.

BIG PICTURE: The GOP race to replace term-limited Gov. Henry McMaster (R) is the biggest draw this primary night, mostly thanks to Rep. Nancy Mace's antics and President Trump’s interference. This primary is most likely going to a runoff that will be decided on June 23. Further down the ballot, a pair of open House races will nominate new members in de facto general-election primaries.

STATE: Trump’s double-edged sword

Trump’s endorsement might have sealed the deal for Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette if he didn’t add that she was tapping lawyer Henry McMaster Jr. as her running mate, something she hadn’t done publicly at the time. Evette, who is backed by the governor, is now contending with allegations of a quid pro quo. This race is likely headed to a runoff thanks to the size of the field. Polling remained tight leading up to Trump’s endorsement, so Evette will likely face Mace, Rep. Ralph Norman, or state Attorney General Alan Wilson in the runoff. Businessman Rom Reddy and state Sen. Josh Kimbrell are also running but likely won’t clinch a runoff spot.

• ANALYSIS: A Trump endorsement for Evette alone may have helped her hit the 50 percent needed to avoid the runoff, but bringing McMaster Jr. in has complicated the equation. His father was the first statewide official to endorse Trump in 2016. A big theme from Norman and Mace has been "draining the swamp" in Columbia, and Trump’s pick for Evette’s lieutenant governor may play right into that narrative.
  • COOK RATING: Solid Republican

SENATE: From foe to friend

Sen. Lindsey Graham is pursuing a fifth term in office, but he’ll need to clear his GOP primary first. The senator faces several GOP opponents, including self-funding businessman Mark Lynch. Graham is expected to win renomination with Trump’s endorsement, but the race could be forced into a June 23 runoff if he doesn’t clear the 50 percent mark. Several Democrats are running to challenge the senator, including 2022 1st District nominee Annie Andrews.

• ANALYSIS: Graham, once a Trump critic, is running confidently with the president’s full support this year. Trump has been very involved in the under-the-radar primary, slamming former Fox News host Tucker Carlson’s support for Project 2025 architect Paul Dans, who later dropped out, and excoriating Lynch directly. Most polls show the senator comfortably ahead in the primary, a testament to Graham’s growing MAGA allegiance and his championing of Trump's foreign policy. Andrews has notably outraised Graham during several quarters, but she’d still face an uphill battle.
  • COOK RATING: Solid Republican

HOUSE: Red-meat race to replace Mace

Two open seats create two opportunities for new blood in Palmetto State politics.

• S.C.-01: Mace's departure from Congress is a gift for House GOP leadership, leaving open a Charleston-area seat that was redrawn to heavily benefit Republicans. A bevy of local officials are running on the Republican side: Dorchester County Councilman Jay Byars, Charleston County Councilwoman Jenny Honeycutt, Beaufort County Councilman Logan Cunningham, and state Rep. Mark Smith. Running on the Democratic side are 2024 candidate Mac Deford and Navy veteran Nancy Lacore, who has the support of some D.C. groups.
  • COOK RATING: Solid Republican
• S.C.-05: State Sen. Wes Climer is the only Republican running to replace Rep. Norman, who is running for governor. Climer, who has received Norman's endorsement, will be the runaway favorite to succeed him.
  • COOK RATING: Solid Republican

A HELPING HAND: A failed redraw, and Trump’s loyalty test

Trump urged South Carolina lawmakers to redraw their congressional maps to remove the majority-Black district held by Democratic Rep. James Clyburn, but the state Senate, controlled by Republicans, voted against the map late last month. Though Trump did not mention the redistricting battle in his post endorsing Evette, she campaigned hard for the redraw.

• ANALYSIS: Trump’s endorsement shows his continuing emphasis on loyalty. He mentioned that Evette was the only one of six Republicans vying to become governor to endorse him at the start of his 2024 presidential bid. Even for some of Trump’s strongest acolytes, such as Mace, there’s only so much they can do to overcome personal vendettas from the past.