Hotline's primary primer: Nevada

WHEN: Polls close at 10 p.m. on June 9.

BIG PICTURE: The marquee race in Nevada is the Democratic primary to take on Gov. Joe Lombardo (R), the most vulnerable Republican governor in the country. Further down the ballot, Republicans will nominate candidates to take on three Las Vegas-area incumbents in races that would be much more competitive if the national environment were slightly more favorable to the GOP.

HOUSE: Republicans try to get lucky

All four of the Silver State’s House districts are hosting competitive elections in November.

• Nevada-01: Assemblywoman Carrie Buck (R) has the Trump endorsement and support from the National Republican Congressional Committee as she vies to take on Rep. Dina Titus (D), setting up a likely clash. Republicans project confidence in this seat given Titus’ poor fundraising and Buck’s profile. The district was made competitive after the 2020 Census and redistricting period as legislative Democrats aggressively sliced Las Vegas. Still, the elections since have not been all that competitive. Titus could be in her most competitive election given her opponent, but it’ll nonetheless be a tough GOP lift in a blue year.
  • COOK RATING: Likely Democratic
• Nevada-02: President Trump endorsed 2024 4th District candidate David Flippo, who switched from a rerun in the 4th to the competitive 2nd District after Rep. Mark Amodei (R) announced his retirement. Flippo has racked up endorsements from several conservative members of Congress and groups like Turning Point USA. Amodei and Lombardo have endorsed former state Sen. James Settelmeyer (R). Former state Senate Majority Leader Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D) is the top contender on the Democratic side. In total, 21 candidates are running for the seat.
  • COOK RATING: Solid Republican
• Nevada-03: In the most competitive of the Vegas-area seats, Trump endorsed 2024 candidate Marty O’Donnell to take on Rep. Susie Lee (D). O’Donnell is a musical composer who created the score for the Halo video-game series.
  • COOK RATING: Lean Democrat
• Nevada-04: Republicans don’t have a high-profile candidate in this seat, which is generally considered the safest of the three Vegas Democratic seats. The district thus does not appear to be a high priority for the GOP, and Rep. Steven Horsford seems like he’s in good shape to win reelection.
  • COOK RATING: Likely Democratic

STATE: Betting on the economy

In the primary, Lombardo faces challenges from long-shot candidates but will cruise to renomination. On the Democratic side, state Attorney General Aaron Ford is the primary favorite, though he faces some competition from Washoe County Commission Chair Alexis Hill.

• ANALYSIS: Unseating an incumbent governor is no easy feat, but Lombardo himself did it in 2022 thanks to a struggling economy under former Gov. Steve Sisolak (D). Ford may find success capitalizing on unfavorable state and national economic headwinds, but he’ll need serious support from national Democrats.
  • COOK RATING: Toss-Up

A HELPING HAND: Kamala Harris tests the waters

In addition to Trump's endorsements on the GOP side, former Vice President Kamala Harris held a fundraiser for Ford last month, and California Gov. Gavin Newsom has fundraised for Ford over email.

• ANALYSIS: While Nevada-02 is a solid Republican seat, Trump’s endorsement there will be the next test of his political power even after the primary. Lombardo has frequently kept distance from the president, skipping his rally in Las Vegas in April. Lombardo and Amodei fall in the more moderate wing of the Republican Party, while Flippo has the support of Freedom Caucus Republicans and Turning Point Action. Flippo will likely win the primary with the president’s endorsement, but he could suffer among independents in the district.