DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee hears first batch of early-state applications

DEMOCRATS: DNC Committee Hears First Batch of Early State Applications

The DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee heard presentations from six of the 12 states auditioning to hold their presidential nominating contests in the early window: Delaware, New Hampshire, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, and Georgia.

• DELAWARE. The delegation presenting the case for Delaware argued its small size and spread of population across urban, rural, and suburban areas make it a good proving ground for candidates.
• NEW HAMPSHIRE. The Granite State delegation, bolstered by Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) and handing out gift bags to committee members, argued the state’s small size, composition of rural, urban, and suburban voters, and independent streak would provide a good early test for candidates.
• WHO ARE YOU EXACTLY. Hassan pointed to increases in the state’s Latino and Black populations, fending off criticism that the state consists largely of white voters. Joanne Dowdell, who leads the state’s campaign to hold its primary first, said that despite the fact New Hampshire is a primarily white state, it opens its doors to every community in the state, “and candidates have an opportunity and seek out those diverse communities to speak with.”
• PART OF A TEAM. Hassan argued the presidential nominating contest “was never meant to rest on one state alone. It works because the early states together reflect the breadth of our party and our country.”
• ILLINOIS. The Illinois delegation pointed to its diversity and strong unions as why it should go in the early window. Democratic Party Chair Lisa Hernandez argued the state mirrors the country in terms of “race, income, education, geography, and industry.”
• IOWA. DNC member Scott Brennan, presenting for the Hawkeye State, called on the DNC to wait to decide on the calendar until after the midterm elections, pointing to promising races for Democrats in Iowa.
• BRENNAN SAYS: “Shame on us if we negatively impact any races in any of the applicant states.”
• OUT WITH IT. The presenting delegation brushed off rumors that the state party would hold an unsanctioned caucus if the DNC does not select them to go first but pointed to Iowa’s law that requires its caucuses to be held before any other nominating contest.
• MICHIGAN. Michigan’s presentation, helmed by Democratic Party Chair Curtis Hertel, pointed to the state’s racial diversity, its battleground status, and its union activity for why it should go in the early window.
• HERTEL SAYS: “There are very few states that represent the entire political spectrum of what the Democratic Party is. Michigan is one of them.” (Hotline reporting)
• GEORGIA. Georgia Democratic Party Chair Charlie Bailey cited the Peach State’s large nonwhite population, especially in rural areas, as a reason it could serve as an early proving ground for presidential candidates. He pointed to Georgia’s increasing competitiveness for Democrats over the last decade as a sign of progress for the party.
• THE DRAWBACKS. Bailey said it is “a coin flip proposition” whether Democrats flip the Georgia secretary of state race, which would allow them to easily move the Democratic primary date. Otherwise, it would be up to the Republican secretary of state to decide whether to move the state’s primary. (Hotline reporting)
• THE TELL-ALL. Former first lady Jill Biden said she was “frightened” by former President Biden’s disastrous 2024 debate performance because she “had never ever seen Joe like that before or since.” That night, she said at a rally, “Joe, you did such a great job. You answered every question. You knew all the facts." (CBS News/Wall Street Journal)

LAW AND ORDER DJT: DOJ Reportedly Opens Investigation into E. Jean Carroll

The Justice Department reportedly launched an investigation into writer E. Jean Carroll, who accused President Trump of sexual assault.

• IN CONTENTION. “The investigation is focused on whether Carroll committed perjury in” a 2022 deposition related to her two cases against the president, during which she said “she received no outside funding for her lawsuit, though it was later revealed that billionaire Reid Hoffman had paid some legal fees and expenses.” (CNN)

POLLING ROUNDUP: Democrats Lead on Generic Ballot

An Emerson College national poll (May 24-25; 1,000 LVs; +/-3%) found President Trump’s approval rating at 39% and Democrats with a 9 point generic ballot advantage over Republicans, 50% to 41%.

• 2028 WATCH. The Emerson poll also asked Republican (432 LVs; +/-4.7%) and Democratic voters (432 LVs; +/-4.7%) their preferences for president in 2028. Vice President JD Vance led the GOP field at 36%, followed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 35%. This is a 16-point drop for Vance and a 15-point surge for Rubio since the poll was last conducted in February. On the Democratic side, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg had 18%, California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) had 16%, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY 14) had 11%. (release)

• HOTLINE ANALYSIS. Vance has struggled to catch the public eye, stalling in his negotiations with Iran. He is increasingly focusing on his fraud task force, but it’s not clear that effort will reach voters. Rubio, on the other hand, has increasingly garnered headlines, giving a fiery press briefing and working on high-profile dealings in Venezuela and Iran. Rubio has publicly deflected to Vance for the 2028 campaign, but these results may color conversations within the White House as Trump mulls which of the two Cabinet members would be the better successor.

PRIMARY PRIMER: It’s Almost Super Junesday

Hotline published our previews of next week’s primaries in California, Iowa, Montana, and South Dakota.

• CALIFORNIA. The marquee event in California is the race to replace term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom (D). With big names like former Vice President Kamala Harris and Sen. Alex Padilla (D) passing on bids, a bottleneck of B-listers threatens to lock Democrats out of the top-two primary. The redistricting shuffle scrambled more than a dozen House races and forced Reps. Young Kim (R-40) and Ken Calvert (R-41) into a member-on-member primary. (Hotline reporting)
• IOWA. The state is the center of the political universe. The entire congressional delegation could change in the midterms and a competitive race for governor has given Democrats hope for a comeback for the first time in years. The Senate primary is the most contentious race with state Sen. Zach Wahls (D), a progressive, and state Rep. Josh Turek (D), the establishment pick, squaring off.
• IN THE HOUSE. All four congressional seats “have competitive contests,” though the matchups are largely set.
• THE GOVERNOR’S MANSION. Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-IA 04) is the frontrunner in the Republican primary, as Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) decided not to seek another term. He will need to best former Department of Administrative Services Director Adam Steen (R), businessman Zach Lahn (R), former state Rep. Brad Sherman (R), and state Rep. Eddie Andrews (R) for the chance to compete against state Auditor Rob Sand (D) in the general election. (Hotline reporting)
• MONTANA. Former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar (I) is running as an independent in the Senate race, bolstered by support from former Sen. Jon Tester (D). In MT-01, conservative radio host Aaron Flint (R) has President Trump’s backing to replace retiring Rep. Ryan Zinke (R). On the Democratic side, former smokejumper Sam Forstag (D), 2024 gubernatorial nominee Ryan Busse (D), and rancher Matt Rains (D) are on the ballot. “Forstag has racked up progressive support and is generally seen as the party's preferred candidate.” (Hotline reporting)
• SOUTH DAKOTA. Gov. Larry Rhoden (R) is at serious risk of losing renomination. (Hotline reporting)

2028 WATCH: Chris Murphy Comes for Billionaires in Book Talk

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) presented his new book, Crisis of the Common Good, at Sixth and I in Washington. He argued “the Democratic Party should be really bold in how it talks about corporate billionaire money.”

• THE BIG QUESTION. Murphy said he does not know whether he will run for president in 2028 but said it would be “irresponsible” to think about a presidential campaign instead of focusing on winning the midterms. He pointed to his PAC, the American Mobilization Project, which gives money to groups opposing President Trump’s agenda. (Hotline reporting)

• YOU BETTER VOTE. California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) signed a law that would prevent “any person—including federal agents—from accessing voter rolls or election technology without a court order.” The law prevents law enforcement from disrupting election workers except in case of emergency. (AP)

• WHILE WE’RE AT IT. Newsom threatened to tax 100% of the money Californians receive from Trump’s “anti-weaponization” fund. Newsom indicated he would need action from the California Legislature to impose the tax, which would be subject to legal challenge.

• NEWSOM SAYS: “That’s an action the state of California can take … [and] it’s an action we look forward to taking.” (Los Angeles Times)

• ON DEFENSE. Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) “quietly established a legal defense fund amid unsubstantiated allegations of sexual misconduct.”

• CONTEXT. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL 13) alleged that Gallego faced “very disturbing allegations,” some of which are “sexual in nature.” Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Luna’s allegations had been referred to the Senate Ethics Committee, and Gallego set up his defense fund shortly after. (NOTUS)