Hotline's primary primer: South Dakota

WHEN: Final polls close at 9 p.m. on June 2.

BIG PICTURE: The first governor in a generation could lose renomination Tuesday as GOP infighting intensifies.

STATE: Rhoden faces a dusty path to renomination

Gov. Larry Rhoden (R) faces the threat of losing renomination in the four-way primary. Rhoden, who succeeded former Gov. Kristi Noem, is seeking to win a full term outright. Rep. Dusty Johnson, businessman Toby Doeden, and state House Speaker Jon Hansen are vying to unseat the governor. The race is likely headed for a runoff on July 28 if no candidate secures 35 percent of the vote. Former state Rep. Dan Ahlers is the presumptive Democratic nominee.

• ANALYSIS: Rhoden is the most at-risk incumbent governor this cycle. He has few successes to tout after serving in the post for little over a year, and he has clashed with Republicans, including those running against him, on taxes. Johnson, as South Dakota's at-large representative, has a unique lane usually not seen with House members: statewide name ID. He has outraised Rhoden and is considered the favorite.
  • COOK RATING: Solid Republican

SENATE: Turning gray

Sen. Mike Rounds (R) is running for his third term, and he’s poised to get it. He faces Navy veteran Justin McNeal in the GOP primary. Former state trooper Julian Beaudion is running unopposed in the Democratic primary. Brian Bengs, who ran as a Democrat against Senate Majority Leader John Thune during the last midterm election, is waging an independent bid.

• ANALYSIS: Bengs is attempting to emulate the nonpartisan campaign of his neighbor to the south, Nebraska's Dan Osborn. He outraised Beaudion every quarter and touted internals that show Rounds more vulnerable against the independent. Yet neither candidate can compete with Rounds’s $2.7 million war chest and his support from President Trump. There isn’t any indication that Beaudion will drop out, making this an independent’s pipe dream.
  • COOK RATING: Solid Republican

HOUSE: All over but the crying

S.D.-AL: There’s just one House contest in South Dakota every cycle, but it’s open this year as Rep. Johnson runs for governor. Attorney General Marty Jackley (R) initially faced some GOP resistance from state Sen. Casey Crabtree, but the latter suspended his campaign as Jackley established himself as the front-runner from the get-go. Touting Trump's endorsement, he’s very likely the next member of Congress from South Dakota.

• COOK RATING: Solid Republican