May 27, 2026, 5:01 p.m.
WHEN: Polls close at 10 p.m. on June 2.
BIG PICTURE: An independent makes a case against corruption and cronyism, while Democrats look to regain their footing in rural America.
SENATE: Switcheroo?
Sen. Steve Daines (R) withdrew from the race at the last minute in an attempt to give former U.S. Attorney for Montana Kurt Alme (R) a glidepath to the GOP nomination. Alme, who’s endorsed by President Trump, faces two lesser-known opponents in the primary. Several candidates are competing in the Democratic primary, including former state Rep. Reilly Neill and personal-development coach Alani Bankhead. Former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar is running as an independent with support from former Sen. Jon Tester (D).
- ANALYSIS: Bodnar is attempting to avoid incurring the state’s dislike for Democrats and hold Alme’s feet to the fire over Daines’s 11th-hour withdrawal. The independent holds the most cash on hand among the field, and he’s running with the backing of Tester—the last Senate Democrat from Big Sky Country. Yet Democrats aren’t eager to give Bodnar the anti-Republican lane. Outside groups are coming in to shake up the Democratic primary in different ways, including a GOP-aligned group boosting Neill and a Tester-linked PAC airing support for Bankhead. Neither Democrat is expected to drop out, but the identity of the eventual winner could signal Bodnar’s potential path in November.
- COOK RATING: Likely Republican
HOUSE: Big Blue Sky country?
Democrats once again will try to flip the elusive western Montana district.
- Montana-01: Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke’s second tour comes to a close this term, as he has announced his retirement. Republicans, including Zinke and Trump, have lined up behind conservative radio host Aaron Flint, but he faces opposition from Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen and Flathead County GOP Chairman Al Olszewski in the primary. On the Democratic side, former smokejumper Sam Forstag, 2024 gubernatorial nominee Ryan Busse, and rancher Matt Rains are on the ballot. Forstag has racked up progressive support and is generally seen as the party's preferred candidate.
- COOK RATING: Likely Republican
A HELPING HAND: Progressive push
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will campaign alongside Forstag later this month.
- ANALYSIS: While Ocasio-Cortez has not publicly announced whether she will run in 2028, she is increasingly appearing alongside progressive House candidates across the country—including those in redder districts. The congresswoman could receive criticism from the more moderate wing of the party if her progressive picks cause Democrats to lose out in battleground elections.
AS SEEN ON TV
A GOP-aligned group—More Jobs, Less Government—is on air with an ad that attempts to boost Neill over Bankhead in the Democratic Senate primary, with Republicans viewing the former state legislator as an obstacle for Bodnar’s independent bid. The ad frames Neill as opposing Trump’s immigration policies while portraying Bankhead as a “conservative Democrat” who “will work with Trump to secure the border.”
