Hotline's primary primer: Iowa

WHEN: Polls close at 9 p.m. on June 2.

BIG PICTURE: For the first time in a generation, nearly every single federal and statewide office in Iowa is up for grabs. President Trump’s tariffs have hit the state hard, and backlash is brewing against the GOP dominance in the congressional delegation and in the state Legislature. Led by a popular standard bearer who has already won statewide, Democrats have a chance to stage a massive comeback in Iowa. The marquee race Tuesday is the showdown between the Democrats in the primary to replace retiring Sen. Joni Ernst (R).

SENATE: Storytelling wars

Rep. Ashley Hinson is the heavy favorite to win the GOP nomination against 2022 candidate Jim Carlin. The Democratic primary is a competitive matchup between state Sen. Zach Wahls and state Rep. Josh Turek. Turek is backed by Democratic leadership, including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, while Wahls is carrying an endorsement from progressive Sen. Elizabeth Warren.

• ANALYSIS: Republicans are encouraged by their recruitment of Hinson, who’s represented a swing seat and is considered a rising star in the party. Democrats believe an open Senate and governor’s race could help boost their nominees in both. The main event is the Democratic primary battle between Turek and Wahls, with the former touting his electability and the latter boasting his opposition to Schumer and Democratic leadership. VoteVets PAC, a group that normally supports candidates with service backgrounds, has spent millions boosting Turek, who does not have one. The group has received money from the Schumer-aligned Senate Majority PAC in the past and spent $9.5 million boosting Turek's biography as a former Paralympian with spina bifida. SMP plans to spend $13.4 million on TV reservations this fall, less than half of the GOP-aligned Senate Leadership Fund’s $29 million investment in the Hawkeye State.
  • COOK RATING: Likely Republican

HOUSE: A clean slate?

All four of the state’s seats have competitive contests.

• Iowa-01: Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) and Christina Bohannan (D) are due for round three after Bohannan lost by just 799 votes in 2024. Miller-Meeks, known for underperformances but also for winning close races, is due for another barn-burner. Both candidates have raised impressive money, meaning this race is likely to be an expensive affair, though the cheaper Iowa media markets will keep the spending at a more reasonable level than in other seats around the country.
  • COOK RATING: Toss Up
• Iowa-02: An open race in what’s shaping to be a strong Democratic year could put this district in play. State Rep. Joe Mitchell (R) is the standard-bearer to replace Hinson, and he’s likely to face state Rep. Lindsay James (D). This is a Republican-leaning seat, but it could be a fun contest given the political environment.
  • COOK RATING: Likely Republican
• Iowa-03: State Rep. Sarah Trone Garriott (D) effectively cleared the primary to set up a contest with Rep. Zach Nunn (R), who first won the seat in 2022. This is the most competitive seat by the numbers in Iowa, as it’s anchored by Des Moines. Expect another expensive, close contest.
  • COOK RATING: Toss Up
• Iowa-04: The most conservative seat in Iowa is open, with Rep. Randy Feenstra (R) running for governor. Siouxland Chamber of Commerce President Chris McGowan scored President Trump’s endorsement, effectively locking up the primary—and the general election.
  • COOK RATING: Solid Republican

STATE: Feenstra keeps his eye on the general election

Republicans are vying to take on state Auditor Rob Sand (D) in the open race after unpopular Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) declined to seek another term. Feenstra is the logical front-runner, but he has caught some heat for skipping debates and forums, and some say he has struggled with grassroots support. His fiercest GOP competition comes from former Department of Administrative Services Director Adam Steen and businessman Zach Lahn, who outraised Feenstra in the latest period. Former state Rep. Brad Sherman (R) and state Rep. Eddie Andrews (R) are also running. If no candidate receives 35 percent of the vote, the party will decide the nominee at convention. Sand enters the uncontested Democratic primary with $18.3 million in the bank.

• ANALYSIS: Feenstra has run his campaign like there’s no primary at all. He has skipped events and hasn’t aired any attack ads on his opponents, or even spoken much about them. He has his eye on Sand. That may come to hurt him in the primary. Steen has the coveted Bob Vander Plaats endorsement, and Lahn is gaining ground on Feenstra’s fundraising advantage. Feenstra is still favored to secure the nomination, but his low profile in the race so far might put him at a disadvantage against Sand’s grassroots game.
  • COOK RATING: Toss Up

A HELPING HAND: A caucus throwback

Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Sen. Ruben Gallego, and Rep. Ro Khanna endorsed Turek in the Senate race. Sen. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan campaigned alongside Trone Garriott. Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, the chair of the Democratic Governors Association, is set to campaign alongside Sand next month after the primary.

• ANALYSIS: Some Democrats look for specific types of candidates to support as they build their national brand, and others look for specific regions of the country. Just as former Vice President Kamala Harris targeted Southern states, Slotkin appears to be focusing her influence on the Midwest. Her challenge will be twofold: showing that her brand of Democratic politics is popular in the region, then showing it can carry states outside the region.