Hotline's primary primer: California

WHEN: Polls close at 11 p.m. on June 2.

BIG PICTURE: The marquee event in California is the race to replace term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom (D). With big names like former Vice President Kamala Harris and Sen. Alex Padilla passing on bids, a bottleneck of B-listers threatens to lock Democrats out of the top-two primary. Speaking of Newsom, his successful gambit to redraw five districts to favor Democrats scrambled the House map, setting off a bitter member-on-member primary and spurring one House Republican to leave the party entirely.

HOUSE: Drawn together and apart

After redistricting in response to Texas Republicans’ aggressive redistricting strategy, California has new maps that cement Democratic power while creating contentious primaries and pitting two members against each other.

• Calif.-01: The newly redrawn seat is open after the death of Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R) earlier this year. The district will likely have a symbolic incumbent: Assemblyman James Gallagher (R) is running in the special election under the old lines, but he’ll be as good as gone by the time November rolls around. The redraw took this seat from one President Trump carried by 25 points to one that Kamala Harris would have carried by 12. State Sen. Mike McGuire (D) and 2020 nominee Audrey Denney (D) are vying for the second spot in the general election in a battle between institution and outsider.
  • COOK RATING: Solid Democrat
• Calif.-03: After redistricting, Rep. Ami Bera (D-06) moved over to this new seat, which is now safely Democratic. The new district resembles an elephant, extending from the California-Nevada border and dipping into Sacramento. Bera will be the favorite, but he faces a primary that includes Nevada County Supervisor Heidi Hall.
  • COOK RATING: Solid Democrat
• Calif.-06: Freshman Rep. Kevin Kiley (I-03) was made politically homeless, so he left the GOP and opted for a run in this newly retooled Sacramento-area seat. The race features former state Sen. Richard Pan (D), Planned Parenthood executive Lauren Babb Tomlinson (D), and Sacramento County District Attorney Thien Ho (D).
  • COOK RATING: Solid Democrat
• Calif.-07: Sacramento City Councilwoman Mai Vang (D) will take on Rep. Doris Matsui (D). Vang, 41, has run a competitive race against Matsui, 81, and she scored endorsements from the Working Families Party and Justice Democrats, among others. In a deep-blue seat, it’s plausible both Democrats advance to November.
  • COOK RATING: Solid Democrat
• Calif.-11: Democrats are set to replace a giant in House Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi (D), who’s calling it quits after a storied career. State Sen. Scott Wiener (D) had been running a shadow campaign for years and jumped into the race flush with cash. Former tech executive Saikat Chakrabarti (D), a former chief of staff to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, has run a self-funded insurgent campaign. San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan (D) is also in the race with institutional and labor support. In the deep-blue enclaves of San Francisco, this primary could see two Democrats advance.
  • COOK RATING: Solid Democrat

• Calif.-14: The race to replace Eric Swalwell (D) had been a relatively sleepy affair, but it took on new life following his abrupt departure from Congress in light of sexual-misconduct allegations. State Sen. Aisha Wahab (D) and Bay Area Rapid Transit board member Melissa Hernandez (D) are vying for the seat. There is a special primary on June 16.
  • COOK RATING: Solid Democrat
• Calif.-22: Rep. David Valadao (R) awaits his Democratic opponent in a matchup between progressivism and centrism. State Assemblywoman Jasmeet Bains is the preferred pick of institutional Democrats and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, but Visalia Unified School District Trustee Randy Villegas has garnered progressive support and has run a competitive campaign. The race has sparked a discussion over what type of Democrat can win in a tough district against a strong incumbent.
  • COOK RATING: Toss Up
• Calif.-26: Rep. Julia Brownley (D) is retiring, opening up a seat on the South Coast. Assemblywoman Jacqui Irwin (D) appears to be the favorite.
  • COOK RATING: Solid Democrat
• Calif.-32: Rep. Brad Sherman (D) faces a generational test from former Biden administration official Jake Levine (D), who has argued that the longtime representative should step aside. Levine is the son of former Rep. Mel Levine (D), who served in Congress from 1983 to 1993.
  • COOK RATING: Solid Democrat
• Calif.-38: Former Rep. Hilda Solis (D), who served as President Obama’s Labor secretary, seeks to make a comeback in this newly redrawn, safely Democratic seat. Pico Rivera city council members Eriz Lutz (D) and Monica Sanchez (D) are also in the race.
  • COOK RATING: Solid Democrat
• Calif.-40: The redistricting referendum pits Reps. Young Kim (R) and Ken Calvert (R-41) against each other in one of the few remaining conservative districts in California. The primary has become about fealty to Trump, which might advantage Calvert, who has hammered Kim on TV over her past criticisms of the president. Kim previously represented a swing district and frequently brandished her bipartisan credentials, which might come back to bite her in this race.
  • COOK RATING: Solid Republican
• Calif.-48: The retirement of Rep. Darrell Issa (R) following redistricting allowed San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond (R) to slide over and effectively wrap up a spot in the general election. He’ll face a difficult path to victory in the Democratic-leaning seat, where San Diego City Councilwoman Marni von Wilpert (D), 2020 California-50 nominee Ammar Campa-Najjar (D), entrepreneur Brandon Riker (D), and others are also duking it out.
  • COOK RATING: Lean Democrat

STATE: Democrats’ full house finds its front-runner

Winning the Golden State is usually an easy feat for Democrats, but the race for governor has been anything but. With a lackluster field that has struggled to find a front-runner to fill Newsom’s shoes, Democrats initially faced the possibility of two Republicans advancing through the jungle primary. That doesn’t look as likely now that former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, once polling in the single digits, looks likely to advance to the general election alongside former Fox News Host Steve Hilton (R), Trump’s pick. 2020 presidential candidate Tom Steyer (D), Becerra’s fiercest Democratic opponent, is trying to knock him out of the top two spots in the final days. Other candidates include former Rep. Katie Porter (D), San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan (D), former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D), and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (R).

• ANALYSIS: This race has seen multiple potential Democratic front-runners. Hilton and Bianco consistently held the top two spots in polling before Swalwell became the primary favorite, but then he exited amid scandal. Earlier on, Porter seemed like a potential favorite before videos of her berating a staffer surfaced. At this point, Democrats just need to win one spot in the general election, and then they can breathe a sigh of relief after this tumultuous primary.
  • COOK RATING: Solid Democrat

A HELPING HAND: The one topic Newsom won’t discuss

Newsom has stayed noticeably silent in the race to choose his successor, though he has supported Democrats further down the ballot. Rep. Ro Khanna endorsed Steyer for governor, but few Democrats with 2028 ambitions have made waves in the gubernatorial primary, following Newsom’s lead. Reps. Khanna and Ocasio-Cortez endorsed Randy Villegas in California-22.

• ANALYSIS: Newsom will need to defend the success of California should he embark on a presidential campaign, but the state’s performance will likely depend somewhat on his successor. Newsom showed his power over the state through the successful passage of Proposition 50, but he is not using the primary elections to demonstrate continued influence.