MAGA CEO Donald Trump is not doing President Donald Trump any favors.
The man putting notches in his belt as he drums his perceived enemies out of office—no matter how many highways they try to name after him—is also imperiling his legislative agenda in Congress.
Three days after Trump convinced Louisiana voters to discard Sen. Bill Cassidy, the two-term Republican was on the Senate floor helping Democrats push forward a War Powers Act resolution that could force the president to seek congressional approval for further hostilities.
Trump’s decision Tuesday to endorse challenger Ken Paxton over Sen. John Cornyn in next week’s Texas primary runoff, seemingly ensuring the incumbent’s defeat, could come back to bite him, too. Assuming he loses, Cornyn has seven months of not having to worry about pleasing MAGA voters. Cassidy and Cornyn could soon be taking cues from Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina, who’s been bucking the president on tariffs and Trump’s support for the violent Jan. 6 rioters since he announced his own retirement last year.
And there’s a ripple effect. The Trump-engineered ouster of two respected Senate veterans is already angering Capitol Hill colleagues.
“Maybe he doesn't think he needs us,” Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski told reporters this week. “But I don't know. Last I checked, the laws don't just appear before his desk to be signed.”
Asked about the president’s “anti-weaponization fund” that could possibly reward Jan. 6 rioters, Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters he was “not a big fan” of the idea and didn’t “see a purpose for that.” For the normally staid, Trump-supportive South Dakotan, Thune's comment came across as something close to outrage. He is already on Trump’s bad side for not trying to end the filibuster, which has been the largest obstacle to the White House agenda, and more recently for not firing the Senate parliamentarian.
On Thursday, emboldened Republicans began talking about ways to rein in the "anti-weaponization" fund as part of a budget-reconciliation bill to fund the Homeland Security Department. Sen. John Hoeven told my National Journal colleague Nancy Vu that several issues are holding up the reconciliation bill, which is now being punted to June: concerns about the White House ballroom project; opposition to the "anti-weaponization” fund; and uncertainty about whether every Republican senator can make it to Washington.
“That's why we need more time,” Hoeven told National Journal Thursday. “Here's the issue: You have to have 50-plus-1 votes on every single vote, including all of the amendments, or you lose the ability to pass the bill with 51 votes rather than 60. ... Different members have different concerns."
The bloc of GOP senators who could impede Trump has grown over the past week. Cassidy and Cornyn join regular anti-MAGA villains Tillis, Murkowski, and Susan Collins. On certain issues, add Sens. Mitch McConnell and Rand Paul to the mix. Even in a chamber where Democratic Sen. John Fetterman is not afraid to buck his party, it’s not hard to see where a switch of a few votes could doom legislation Trump wants.
That doesn’t mean Trump can’t score some victories. It’ll just be a bit harder. Here’s a look at some key issues he’s championed and their chances of success in Congress this year given the increasing odds of a GOP revolt:
SAVE America Act (Little chance):
This one was on life support anyway once it was clear it would need to vault the 60-vote filibuster threshold. Most Republicans avidly back the bill, which would require proof of citizenship to register and vote, but Democrats don’t. Trump is pressuring GOP leaders to attach the measure to other legislation making its way through Congress, such as an affordable-housing bill or an extension of a national security measure extending Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act.
The White House ballroom (Hard to see how):
Even if the Senate parliamentarian hadn’t ruled it out as part of the budget-reconciliation measure last week, the White House’s $1 billion ask to pay for a new East Wing ballroom doesn’t enjoy enough support among Republicans to pass.
Budget reconciliation on immigration/border funding (Very likely):
As long as the proposed $70 billion budget-reconciliation bill focuses on border security and immigration, its chances are very good considering it needs only a simple majority. It remains Trump’s most potent issue among the GOP conference, drawing support from centrists and right-wingers alike. Its chances of passage get dicey if senators begin ladling other unrelated (and less popular) items into the reconciliation stew.
Anti-weaponization fund (No way):
A proposal to create a nearly $1.8 billion fund that would ostensibly reward Trump’s supporters, including those who attacked the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, was going to be a hard sell even if Trump’s job-approval numbers weren’t in the 30s. Those slim-to-none odds got worse following news that the settlement creating the fund includes a provision exempting Trump, his family, and his business from being audited by the IRS for past activities.
“People are concerned about paying their mortgage or rent, affording groceries and paying for gas, not about putting together a $1.8 billion fund for the President and his allies to pay whomever they wish with no legal precedent or accountability,” Cassidy tweeted Wednesday. “This is adding to our national debt. If there needs to be a settlement, the administration should bring it to Congress to decide.”
A court could allow Trump to bypass Congress and greenlight the fund, but lawmakers won't pass it otherwise.
Iran War (Iffy):
For weeks, Democrats have tried—and failed—to pass a War Powers Act resolution requiring Trump to seek congressional authorization for continued operations against Iran. Then on Tuesday, Cassidy voted for the first time to advance the measure (after repeatedly voting against it), joining Paul, Murkowski, and Collins in defying Trump. The procedural vote doesn’t mean it’ll pass when the final measure comes before the Senate, but it will probably force Vice President J.D. Vance to break a tie.
Nominations (It depends):
Trump’s conservative jurists are still getting through. On Wednesday, the Senate approved his 39th federal judicial confirmation since he returned to the White House last year. Combining that number with his first-term nominations, the president is on pace to shatter Ronald Reagan’s modern-era record of 402 federal judicial appointments.
The president’s executive-branch appointments are a different matter. As chair of the Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee, Cassidy could block key appointments as a way to hold Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. "accountable." Tillis proved how much leverage a single senator can exert when he held up Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as Federal Reserve chairman.
2027 appropriations (not Trump’s version):
There’s added urgency among Republicans to pass a 2027 spending plan by year's end because the chances they lose at least one chamber during the midterms appear high. That seems a tall order considering they haven’t fully wrapped up the 2026 appropriations process. Even if they pass all 12 spending bills, it won’t include the deep cuts outlined in the president's budget proposal. Look for a similar reception to his 2026 budget, which didn't go very far on Capitol Hill.
