Hotline's primary primer: Texas runoff

WHEN: Polls close at 8 p.m. on May 26.

BIG PICTURE: President Trump defied Republican leadership and endorsed state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) over Sen. John Cornyn (R) a week before the runoff. Paxton, with his political and personal controversies, could put in play not only the Senate race but races further down the ballot as well if he wins the nomination. But in order for Democrats to win in November, they’ll need to get their preferred House candidates through the runoffs on Tuesday—especially in Texas-35.

SENATE: The final verdict

Cornyn and Paxton will settle their high-profile showdown in the GOP runoff after neither won majority support in the March primary. Cornyn got 42 percent of the vote, Paxton got 41 percent, and Rep. Wesley Hunt got 14 percent. Trump endorsed Paxton at the last minute after having shown an interest in backing Cornyn immediately following the primary. Whoever clears the runoff will face state Rep. James Talarico (D) in November.

• ANALYSIS: The highly anticipated Cornyn-Paxton runoff is going down to the wire, and the president is rewarding Paxton for his loyalty. Runoff polls conducted before Trump’s endorsement either showed a margin-of-error race between the two or Paxton slightly ahead of the senator. Yet pro-Cornyn ad spending has outpaced pro-Paxton reservations 4-to-1 since the March primary, according to AdImpact. Republican leaders are concerned that a Paxton nomination could force the party to spend more money to defend the GOP-held seat in the fall. The GOP-aligned Senate Leadership Fund hasn’t announced any investments in Texas this cycle, but Republican strategists project a general election could cost upward of $250 million if Paxton is the nominee.
  • COOK RATING: Likely Republican

HOUSE: Runoffs galore in new seats

After kicking off the redistricting wars, the Lone Star State will put its new districts to the test.

• Texas-09: Army veteran Alex Mealer (R) and state Rep. Briscoe Cain (R) advanced to the runoff in this newly drawn seat. Neither candidate cleared 40 percent, but Mealer is running with a Trump endorsement, giving her a decisive edge with a runoff electorate that will skew more conservative. A recent poll showed Mealer leading Cain, 50-41 percent.
  • COOK RATING: Solid Republican
• Texas-18: The new guard tests the old guard as Rep. Christian Menefee (D) takes on longtime Rep. Al Green (D-09), who slid over to this Houston seat after Republicans dismantled his current turf. A recent poll showed Menefee, aged 38, leading Green, 78, by 50-43 percent.
  • COOK RATING: Solid Democrat
• Texas-19: Businessman Tom Sell (R) led the field with 40 percent of the primary vote. Activist Abraham Enriquez (R) was second but far behind with 19 percent. Trump has not weighed in on this race and there’s no meaningful data available of the runoff. The winner will replace retiring Rep. Jodey Arrington (R).
  • COOK RATING: Solid Republican
• Texas-33: A high-profile, national, and bitter race between Rep. Julie Johnson (D-32) and former Rep. Colin Allred (D) comes to a close. Allred dropped his second Senate bid after Rep. Jasmine Crockett hopped into that race. He looks to reclaim his old seat, which has been retooled by Republicans, and defeat his successor, Johnson, who is the first openly LGBTQ+ member of Congress in the South.
  • COOK RATING: Solid Democrat

• Texas-35: Neither the Republican nor Democratic primaries produced an outright winner in March. State Rep. John Lujan (R), backed by Gov. Greg Abbott, and Air Force veteran Carlos De La Cruz (R), backed by Trump, advanced to the runoff. The primary was close: Lujan led the field with 33 percent, while De La Cruz, the brother of Rep. Monica De La Cruz, trailed with 26 percent. On the Democratic side, a crucial election awaits as Bexar County Deputy Sheriff Johnny Garcia squares off with activist Maureen Galindo. Galindo has racked up some local support, propelling her to the runoff despite a massive cash disadvantage. Garcia has received air cover from groups like the Blue Dogs in the runoff. If Garcia loses, the race won’t be competitive in November. If he wins, this new seat that Trump would have won by 10 points could be a sleeper race for Democrats given the expected political environment.
  • COOK RATING: Likely Republican
• Texas-38: Real estate broker Jon Bonck (R) takes on pilot Shelly deZevallos (R) in the race to replace Hunt, who unsuccessfully ran for Senate. Bonck should be the favorite. He has the coveted Trump endorsement and led the primary 48-19 percent over deZevallos.
  • COOK RATING: Solid Republican

A HELPING HAND:

• Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg endorsed Garcia in Texas-35. Trump's endorsement of Paxton in the Republican Senate primary effectively punished Cornyn for his past criticisms of the president. Paxton said after the primary that he would consider dropping out of the race if the Senate passed the SAVE America Act, but Republican leadership has not found the votes to pass the legislation. Cornyn recently introduced a bill that would dedicate a highway to Trump.
  • ANALYSIS: Trump, whose endorsement frequently clears Republican primaries, waited so long to endorse to avoid attaching his cart to a losing horse. With this primary being as contentious as it is, Trump risks losing some political capital if he makes the wrong call.