Four years ago, Oregon Gov. Tina Kotek (D) narrowly won in a deep-blue state, a race that landed in toss-up territory thanks to a well-funded independent candidate.
Her reelection bid looks easier on paper. The race is rated Solid Democrat, and the national headwinds are buoying her party.
But Kotek will likely face a GOP nominee who has run for governor before, and is pulling in impressive fundraising, meaning the race could be more competitive than ratings suggest.
“There is something there, in the sense that this is going to be a competitive race. I don't think that Kotek is going to easily win the race, whoever the GOP challenger is, just because the governorship is a prized post,” Chandler James, a political science professor at the University of Oregon, told Hotline.
2022 nominee Christine Drazan (R), former Portland Trail Blazer Chris Dudley (R), and state Rep. Ed Diehl (R) are jockeying to take on Kotek in Tuesday’s primary.
Drazan has led in limited public polling, thanks in part to name ID from her 2022 bid. She’s also posted solid fundraising, raising $2.7 million to date.
Dudley, who ran for governor in 2010 and lost by 22,000 votes, has a big Oregon donor in his corner: Nike co-founder Phil Knight. In 2022, Knight contributed over $3.8 million to 2022 candidate Betsy Johnson (I) and then $1.5 million to Drazan. He gave an initial $1 million to Dudley, who has raised $2.4 million to date.
Diehl has trailed Drazan and Dudley in fundraising, but has boosted his profile with an effort to force legislation raising the gas tax to the ballot for voters to decide, James said.
Polling earlier in the year showed Kotek leading potential GOP nominees by single digits. In an internal poll (May 11-12; 603 LVs; +/-4%) for Dudley released ahead of the primary, he led Kotek, 48%-44%. In the same poll, Drazan tied with Kotek at 45% each.
The race is shaping up to be a referendum on Kotek’s tenure during a time when Oregon has struggled with housing costs and homelessness, James said. Some gubernatorial approval polls rank her as one of the least popular Democratic governors in the country. And while she’s still favored to win reelection, she’ll likely have to deploy some of her $3.1 million to go on defense.
“If people are dissatisfied with some aspect of how she's governed, or how the state of Oregon is faring, that could lead people who might be traditional Democratic voters or might lean towards the Democratic Party to give a Republican a chance,” James said.
— Abby Turner
