Beating Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH 09) is a top priority for House Republicans if they want to retain their narrow majority, and an internal poll from the NRCC obtained by Hotline found that she’s at her most vulnerable point in years.
The poll (April 18-20; 400 LVs; +/-4.9%) conducted by McLaughlin & Associates found Kaptur, the longest-serving woman in Congress, at 43% and 2024 nominee Derek Merrin (R) at 47%. Libertarian candidate David Gedert had 3%. Kaptur’s job approval rating was 45% approve and 42% disapprove. In a generic ballot test, the poll also found “a Republican holds the advantage over a Democrat 48%-45%, with 8% saying they are undecided,” according to a polling memo.
“These numbers prove exactly what we’ve been saying all along: Ohioans in the Ninth Congressional District are ready for change, and Derek Merrin is poised to flip this seat red in November,” NRCC spokesman Zach Bannon said in a statement.
The internal survey is welcome news for Republicans in a must-win race for their embattled party. Democrats are still favored to flip the House despite Republicans’ advantage in the redistricting wars. Democrats need to net three seats to take control of the House. On average, the party in power in the White House loses 28 seats in the midterms. Republicans lost 40 seats during Trump’s first midterm in 2018.
If Republicans want to defend their majority, they’ll need to flip districts like Kaptur’s Northwestern Ohio seat. Kaptur is one of 13 Democrats who represent a district President Trump carried in 2024. Ohio redrew its map last year following a court order and Kaptur’s district went from Trump +7 to Trump +11, according to a Hotline analysis of the maps.
Politico reported on five similar NRCC battleground district polls last week that found GOP candidates leading or within striking distance of Democrats in high-priority races. Democrats downplayed the survey.
“Northwest Ohio has already rejected proven loser Derek Merrin once, and no desperate NRCC spin poll is going to change that fact. While Merrin lines up behind a toxic agenda that’s raising costs on working families and ripping away their health care, Marcy Kaptur is laser focused on delivering for her constituents. Northwest Ohio voters know Marcy is in their corner—and come November, they'll reject Derek Merrin again," DCCC Spokesperson Riya Vashi said in a statement.
— Kirk A. Bado
