Hotline's primary primer: Pennsylvania

WHEN: Polls close at 8 p.m. on May 19.

BIG PICTURE: Tuesday’s primaries are a preview of November—and the first test of Gov. Josh Shapiro’s political power before a potential White House campaign. The governor is nominally up for reelection, but he’s the heavy favorite after romping to victory in 2022. He’ll instead turn his attention to getting his preferred House candidates through the primary. Control of the House could come down to a handful of races in Pennsylvania come November, and Shapiro is looking to put his stamp on the midterms.

HOUSE: Key battlegrounds in the Keystone State

Pennsylvania will play host to several battleground races come November. The hallmark race is the Democratic primary to take on Rep. Ryan Mackenzie in the 7th District, where the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee recently made a foray.

• Pa.-01: Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie essentially cleared his primary to take on Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, a centrist Republican who has fended off challenges for years. Harvie might be Fitzpatrick’s best competition yet, but the congressman will prove tough to beat.
  • COOK RATING: Likely Republican
• Pa.-03: Democratic Rep. Dwight Evans’ decision to step down created a vacancy in Philadelphia, where three Democrats, state Rep. Chris Rabb, state Sen. Sharif Street, and physician Ala Stanford, are running competitive campaigns. Rabb secured key progressive endorsements in recent weeks, including one from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Stanford has the backing of Evans and 314 Action, a group committed to electing candidates with science backgrounds. Street has garnered some local support, including that of many labor groups. Shapiro has reportedly worked behind the scenes to try to sink Rabb’s candidacy.
  • COOK RATING: Solid Democrat
• Pa.-07: The DCCC this month came out and backed firefighter Bob Brooks, putting its thumb on the scale in a crowded primary to take on Mackenzie. Brooks still faces former federal prosecutor Ryan Crosswell, engineer Carol Obando-Derstine, and former Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure. Brooks has the support of both some progressive groups and the moderate Blue Dogs. McClure, who has not run a competitive operation, recently received air cover from an unknown outside group, leading to speculation that GOP groups could be meddling.
  • COOK RATING: Toss Up
• Pa.-10: Rep. Scott Perry (R) and 2024 nominee Janelle Stelson (D) are due for a rematch in one of the closest races from last cycle. Democrats say a favorable political environment can get Stelson over the line. This race will be an expensive affair. Stelson is one of the best fundraisers on the House map, and she’s been posting seven-figure quarters that go straight toward her November fund.
  • COOK RATING: Toss Up

STATE: Shapiro’s stride to reelection

Republicans moved early to ensure their best chances at beating Shapiro. The state GOP backed state Treasurer Stacy Garrity in September 2025 to squash any chances of 2022 nominee Doug Mastriano gaining steam. Both primaries are uncontested.

• ANALYSIS: Despite Republicans’ efforts to coalesce around an establishment candidate early, this race has continued to favor Democrats. Four years ago, the open seat was initially rated as Toss Up. Now, it’s solidly in favor of Shapiro, who is sitting on a $37 million war chest heading into the general election. With an easy reelection bid, Shapiro can instead use the midterms to boost his national profile as he considers a presidential bid.
  • COOK RATING: Solid Democrat

A HELPING HAND: Where 2028 hopefuls are hitting the stump

Shapiro has promised to flip four House seats, endorsing Harvie, Brooks, and Stelson. He recruited Eugene DePasquale to serve as the state Democratic Party chair and has donated $925,000 from his campaign account. While Shapiro himself has stayed out of the 3rd District primary, other national Democrats, including Reps. Ocasio-Cortez and Ro Khanna as well as Sen. Chris Van Hollen, have endorsed Rabb. Khanna, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, and Sens. Ruben Gallego and Chris Murphy have endorsed Brooks.

• ANALYSIS: California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker notched early successes with Democrats in their respective states. Newsom successfully passed Proposition 50 to redraw California’s maps, and Pritzker helped his lieutenant, Juliana Stratton, clear a divisive Senate primary. Now, Shapiro will need to show a similar command over Democrats in his state.