Hotline's primary primer: Kentucky

WHEN: Polls close at 7 p.m. on May 19.

BIG PICTURE: In another world, the Kentucky GOP would celebrate Sen. Mitch McConnell and his efforts to lead his party out of its decades-long wandering in the bluegrass backwoods. Instead, these primaries will serve as a reminder that it’s President Trump’s party now as the battle to replace Old Crow comes down to the candidate who can embrace MAGA the tightest and stiff-arm McConnell the hardest.

SENATE: An eleventh-hour shake-up

Rep. Andy Barr (R) and former state Attorney General Daniel Cameron (R) are dueling to replace the retiring McConnell. Waste-removal entrepreneur Nate Morris exited the race earlier this month after he and Trump endorsed Barr for the seat. 2022 nominee Charles Booker and 2020 nominee Amy McGrath are facing off in a Democratic primary rematch; McGrath defeated Booker in the 2020 Democratic Senate primary, but lost handily to McConnell in the general.

• ANALYSIS: Barr is barreling ahead toward the nomination after winning Trump’s endorsement. Cameron’s weak fundraising numbers and Morris’ departure are only adding to Barr’s momentum after all three distanced themselves from McConnell, their former boss. Polling showed Barr gaining steam as Cameron’s name-ID advantage dwindled and Morris struggled to sell his aggressive anti-McConnell message despite receiving multimillion-dollar support from former Trump adviser Elon Musk. Pro-Barr ad spending heading into the primary totals $2.8 million, according to AdImpact, substantially higher than the Cameron campaign’s $77,000 ad buy. The presumptive Republican nominee is poised to win the open seat this fall, even after the Bluegrass State reelected Gov. Andy Beshear (D) three years ago.
• COOK RATING: Solid Republican

HOUSE: Kentucky Fried revenge

The next stop on Trump’s revenge tour could hit a snag.

• Ky.-04: Rep. Thomas Massie (R) has drawn the ire of Trump for several years, and this might be the cycle in which it comes back to bite him. The president in the past called for a primary challenger to take on Massie; this year his team actually put in effort to recruit and fund a challenge. Insert former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein, whom the White House settled on after an extended candidate search. Gallrein has leaned into this Trump support, and the campaign has become a referendum on fealty to Trump and Massie's independent streak. The congressman has sought to portray Gallrein as a liberal in his ads.
  • COOK RATING: Solid Republican
• Ky.-06: Barr’s open seat has caught the attention of Democrats, but there’s no guarantee it will be competitive. Trump won the district by 15 points in 2024, making the race a long shot at best. Former state Sen. Ralph Alvarado, also a former Tennessee health official, has the coveted Trump endorsement. He faces state Rep. Ryan Dotson in the primary. On the other side, former state Rep. Cherlynn Stevenson and former federal prosecutor Zach Dembo appear to be the leading contenders for the Democratic nomination. Stevenson has stacked up some Washington support from groups like EMILYs List and Elect Democratic Women. Dembo has the backing of VoteVets. They’ve raised similar amounts of money as well. No matter who wins the primary, the Republican will be favored in a seat that was last competitive in 2018 under different lines.
  • COOK RATING: Solid Republican

A HELPING HAND: Trump’s power tested again

Vice President J.D. Vance followed Trump’s lead, defending the president’s push to support Gallrein over Massie. Sen. Rand Paul is supporting Massie’s reelection bid.

• ANALYSIS: Massie and Paul insist they are still America First, but they face an uphill battle as the state moves past the age of McConnell’s leadership. Trump came out of his recent standoff with Indiana Republicans having a firm hold over the base, and Kentucky is next on his list. Massie will need to overcome Trump’s massive political sway to keep his seat.