Hotline's primary primer: Alabama

WHEN: Polls close at 8 p.m. ET on May 19.

BIG PICTURE: Alabama’s primary is in flux after Gov. Kay Ivey (R) announced she would delay the election in four districts—Alabama-01, -02, -06, and -07. Earlier this week, the Supreme Court vacated a lower court’s order requiring Alabama to use a court-drawn congressional district map that had two predominantly Black districts. Now, the state is waiting for permission from another lower court to use its 2023 congressional map that would eliminate Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures’s 2nd District. Voters will still cast their ballots in those four districts, but they’ll be voided after a special primary in August. All other races are still on—for now.

STATE: I think I’ve seen this film before

Tuberville is all but certain to become the nominee in the race to succeed Ivey. He faces long-shot opposition from 2024 6th District candidate Ken McFeeters (R). On the Democratic side, former Sen. Doug Jones is the primary favorite.

• ANALYSIS: This will likely be a rematch between Tuberville and Jones, who faced off in the 2020 Senate race, which Tuberville won. Democrats feel bullish about a lot of red gubernatorial races across the country, but Alabama isn’t one of them.
  • COOK RATING: Solid Republican

A HELPING HAND: Trump’s decisive endorsement

Trump has endorsed Moore in the Senate race and Tuberville in the gubernatorial race.

• ANALYSIS: While the coveted Trump endorsement may not protect Moore from a runoff, it gives him a leg up against his competitors. In a state without any significant Republican dissent to Trump, his influence goes largely unquestioned.

SENATE: The MAGA pageant

The Republican primary to succeed Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) is virtually a three-man contest between Rep. Barry Moore, state Attorney General Steve Marshall, and former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson. Moore is running with President Trump’s endorsement as Marshall and Hudson battle for a spot in a likely June 16 runoff.

• ANALYSIS: The GOP contest for Tuberville’s seat forces competitors to balance MAGA principles with personal appeal. Trump’s backing of Moore gives the congressman momentum but doesn't hand him the Republican nomination. Several polls show Moore ahead in the primary field but under the 50 percent mark needed to avoid a runoff. The congressman is receiving about $8.8 million in ad support from a Club for Growth affiliate and from a Fairshake PAC-aligned group, according to AdImpact. Hudson and Marshall both hold sizable bases of support but are running with significantly less TV reinforcements. Whoever wins the GOP nomination is poised to win in November.
  • COOK RATING: Solid Republican

HOUSE: Waiting for a special decision

Whether Alabama will have special House primaries seems to be the biggest question in the state right now. Alabama currently can’t redistrict because of a court order restricting its ability to redraw until after 2030, but Republican leaders argue that since the Supreme Court’s decision in Louisiana v. Callais, the injunction is moot. That matter is not yet settled, but if the Supreme Court were to grant Alabama a redraw, legislators could crack one or two Democratic seats, depending on whether they opt for a previously drawn map or entirely new lines.

• Alabama-01: Moore’s House seat, which was created just two years ago due to court-ordered redistricting, is open due to his Senate run. Former Rep. Jerry Carl (R), who lost a bitter member-on-member primary to Moore, is vying for his old seat. He faces state Rep. Rhett Marques (R) in the contest for the Mobile-anchored seat. Scant polling has painted an unclear picture, but whoever wins the primary will be on their way to Congress.
  • COOK RATING: Solid Republican