May 11, 2026, 1:40 p.m.
WHEN: Polls close at 9 p.m. ET on May 16.
BIG PICTURE: After the Supreme Court’s decision in Louisiana v. Callais, Gov. Jeff Landry (R) pushed the state’s House primaries into July while keeping other contests on the book for May 16. With no House races to look at this time, the Senate race is the main event. Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) is a prime target in President Trump’s revenge tour, and things are looking dicey for the incumbent in a three-way Republican primary.
SENATE: The presidential stamp of disapproval
Cassidy is fighting for his political life more than five years after he voted to convict Trump during his 2021 impeachment trial. The senator faces Rep. Julia Letlow, who’s backed by both the president and Landry, and state Treasurer John Fleming in a heavily contested Republican primary that could end up in a June 27 runoff. The Democratic primary features row-crop farmer Jamie Davis Jr., who’s endorsed by the Louisiana Democratic Party, and nonprofit executive Nick Albares, who’s backed by former Gov. John Bel Edwards.
- ANALYSIS: Cassidy’s attempts to portray himself as a MAGA warrior ultimately couldn’t keep Trump out of this race, forcing the incumbent to go on defense against a Trump-backed challenger and a former House Freedom Caucus member. The senator and his allies are hoping to lock Letlow out of a likely runoff, slamming her prior advocacy for diversity, equity, and inclusion programs. Letlow’s allies are trying to relegate Fleming to third place to secure a less competitive Cassidy-Letlow runoff. Fleming, with little money raised outside of self-funding, is relying on his conservative reputation amid his opponents’ nasty attacks against each other. Regardless of who wins, the eventual Republican nominee is favored to hold the seat in the GOP-favorable Pelican State.
- COOK RATING: Solid Republican
A HELPING HAND: Trump’s score to settle
Trump endorsing Letlow continues his vendetta against Republicans he perceives as having done him wrong.
- ANALYSIS: The Indiana primaries were the first real test of the president’s continuing sway over his base. His endorsement generally tends to clear the GOP field, but this is the only Senate race in which he has endorsed against an incumbent. Should Cassidy survive the primary, it may raise questions about the president’s political strength.
AS SEEN ON TV
The pro-Cassidy Louisiana Freedom Fund has aired several TV ads dubbing Letlow as a “liberal,” often citing her praise for DEI efforts when she interviewed to be the president of University of Louisiana-Monroe in 2020. One ad said, “Julia Letlow is with they/them,” mirroring the Trump campaign’s attack ad against former Vice President Kamala Harris during the 2024 election.
The pro-Letlow Accountability Project is primarily hitting Fleming on the air in the closing weeks of the campaign. One AI-generated spot depicts Fleming driving a school bus with undocumented immigrants to the tune of “The Wheels on the Bus.” The ad references Fleming’s comments during a 2008 candidate forum promoting a busing program for migrant workers across the Southern border.
