Hotline's primary primer: Nebraska

WHEN: Polls close at 9 p.m. ET on May 12.

BIG PICTURE: Independent Dan Osborn, whose challenge against Sen. Deb Fischer (R) in 2024 took everyone by surprise, is back with a challenge against Sen. Pete Ricketts (R). While the attention is on Osborn and Ricketts, the Democratic Senate primary could still impact the November ballot. In the state’s one competitive congressional district, retiring Rep. Don Bacon’s departure leaves Democrats with their best pickup opportunity—if they can find a strong nominee. Gov. Jim Pillen (R) is likely to coast to renomination after quashing a potential challenger, and only one 2028 hopeful has waded into the state’s primary.

SENATE: Mister Independent returns

• Ricketts is poised to win the Republican nomination against low-profile challengers, setting up a face-off with Osborn. The Democratic primary features labor attorney Cindy Burbank, who’s backed by the Nebraska Democratic Party, and pastor William Forbes, whom state Democrats accuse of being a Republican plant. The Legal Marijuana NOW Party primary includes former labor leader Mike Marvin, who’s been accused by a former party leader of being an Osborn plant, and marijuana advocate Earl Starkey.

• ANALYSIS: Osborn is making a comeback after overperforming former Vice President Kamala Harris by nearly 14 points in 2024. Osborn is hoping his independent-populist brand could help him cross the finish line amid a less favorable environment for Republicans. Ricketts has a leg up as a former governor, but in the money race they’re about even, with both candidates holding roughly $1.1 million on hand as of April 22. Much like in 2024, polling mostly comes from Osborn allies or Democratic firms and shows a margin-of-error race between the two.
  • COOK RATING: Likely Republican

HOUSE: One is the loneliest number

• Nebraska plays host to one competitive congressional election, and it’s a consequential one. Bacon left open the Omaha seat that Democrats routinely carry at the presidential level thanks to Nebraska’s unique Electoral College system. The seat quickly became Democrats’ best pickup opportunity. State Sen. John Cavanaugh and political strategist Denise Powell are the top two contenders in the five-way Democratic primary. Cavanaugh has leaned into experience and his dynastic roots. His father held the seat in Congress, and his sister is also a state legislator. Powell, relying on her ties to the community, has argued Cavanaugh risks strengthening a Republican supermajority in the unicameral Legislature if he departs his post for Congress, potentially leading to a redraw of the state’s congressional maps and an abortion ban. Outside groups including EMILYs List, BOLD PAC, and Elect Democratic Women have spent nearly $3 million supporting Powell and opposing Cavanaugh. On the Republican side, Omaha City Councilman Brinker Harding will be crowned as the nominee. He initially had a competitive primary, but former state Sen. Brett Lindstrom dropped his campaign earlier this year.
  • COOK RATING: Lean Democrat

STATE: Jim Pillen staves off 2022 ghosts, for now

• Pillen will sail to renomination, avoiding a challenge from 2022 candidate Charles Herbster, whom President Trump had endorsed in 2022. Herbster considered a rematch, but he said he couldn’t drum up enough donor support. Pillen could still face a rematch with Lindstrom, who came third in the 2022 primary. Having dropped out of the Nebraska-02 race earlier this year, Lindstrom said he’s considering an independent gubernatorial bid. On the Democratic side, former state Sen. Lynne Walz is the primary favorite out of the field of two.
  • ANALYSIS: Herbster’s decision not to run put Pillen on a strong path toward reelection, though that path may be muddled if Lindstrom decides to get in. A Walz internal poll showed Pillen narrowly leading the Democrat, 38-33 percent.
  • COOK RATING: Solid Republican

A HELPING HAND: Where the 2028 hopefuls are hitting the stump

• Democratic Rep. Ro Khanna of California endorsed Cavanaugh, who has the support of the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC.
  • ANALYSIS: Compared to many in the prospective 2028 field, Khanna is no stranger to endorsing in competitive primaries. As one of the vice chairs of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, he tends to support progressive candidates regardless of where they are in the country.

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