Hotline's primary primer: Ohio

WHEN: Polls close at 7:30 p.m. ET. on May 5.

BIG PICTURE: The primaries in Ohio's Senate and gubernatorial races are all but decided. The intrigue will be in the handful of House primaries, after the state’s redistricting commission tweaked the congressional map in the fall. While the redraw shifted two Democratic-held seats in Republicans’ favor, this was not as ambitious a gerrymander as Republicans carried out in North Carolina and Texas.

SENATE: Two years late?

• Sen. Jon Husted (R) and former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) are headed straight to a face-off in November’s special election. Husted is unopposed in the Republican primary, and Brown is expected to defeat a little-known opponent in the Democratic primary. The winner of the special election will serve the remaining two years of the term until the seat’s regularly scheduled election in 2028.
  • ANALYSIS: Coming off a narrow reelection loss, Brown is seeking redemption and a revival of working-class support for Democrats in the Buckeye State. The former populist senator is a strong recruit for Democrats, boasting strong fundraising hauls and crossover appeal. Brown overperformed Kamala Harris by nearly 8 points in 2024. On the other hand, Husted could benefit from the state’s move toward Republicans in recent cycles, a political shift that unseated Brown and resulted in Vice President J.D. Vance’s rise. Ohio will host one of the closest and most expensive races on the Senate map, and it’s one of most consequential contests to determine control of the Senate.
  • COOK RATING: Toss Up

HOUSE: Redistricting the right way

• Ohio is the only state in this cycle that had to redistrict. The constitution required a redraw of the 2022 lines after the state’s redistricting commission and the Legislature could not pass bipartisan maps. That meant they were valid for only two election cycles. Ohio Republicans, who control the Legislature, avoided another potentially legally hairy maximalist redraw and instead struck a deal with Democrats, shoring up Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-13) and making seats held by Reps. Greg Landsman (D-01) and Marcy Kaptur (D-09) more red. Democrats are also targeting a handful of reach seats in the Buckeye State.
• Ohio-01: Landsman is poised to face off against Air Force veteran Eric Conroy (R), after dentist Steven Erbeck (R) dropped his campaign earlier this month. That led to a swift endorsement from President Trump and Conroy’s addition to the National Republican Congressional Committee’s MAGA Majority list of top candidates. Redistricting turned this seat into one Trump would have carried by fewer than 3 points.
  • COOK RATING: Lean Democrat
• Ohio-07: Democrats are looking at seats like Republican Rep. Max Miller’s as they try to expand the map, but this one appears to be a long shot right now. Brook Park City Councilman Brian Poindexter is the preferred pick by national Democrats, but he’s not alone in the primary and hasn’t raised a ton of money. He faces former Cuyahoga County Executive Ed FitzGerald (D), a scandal-plagued former gubernatorial nominee who also hasn’t raised much.
  • COOK RATING: Solid Republican

• Ohio-09: Kaptur has escaped with victories in the last two cycles due to underwhelming Republican challengers, and she might be on track to do it again. Four Republicans are duking it out for a chance to take on Kaptur, the longest-serving woman in the House, whose seat would have gone to Trump by 11 points. 2024 nominee Derek Merrin (R), who lost to Kaptur by fewer than 3,000 votes, appears to be the front-runner for the nomination. Former Deputy Immigration and Customs Enforcement Director Madison Sheahan, Air Force veteran Alea Nadeem, and state Rep. Josh Williams are all vying for the GOP nomination, but they don’t seem to have made a dent into Merrin’s name recognition. Because of the redistricting, Kaptur is likely to face yet another down-to-the-wire affair, no matter the opponent.
  • COOK RATING: Toss up
• Ohio-10: Democrats think the Dayton-area seat could be competitive, but Republican Rep. Mike Turner’s decision to run it back could halt their plans in this seat. Trump won this seat by only 8 points, but Turner won by 16 points in 2024. Democrats’ hopes fall on Air Force veteran Kristina Knickerbocker, but she first has to get through a primary with five other candidates. Knickerbocker has led the way in fundraising.
  • COOK RATING: Solid Republican
• Ohio-15: Former state Rep. Adam Miller (D) has raised more than $800,000 in a rematch attempt with Rep. Mike Carey (R), who won by 13 points. But, like Ohio-07 and Ohio-10, this seat is also going to be a tough lift for Democrats. Miller also faces a primary with Ohio State University professor Don Leonard. If Leonard wins the primary, this race is almost assuredly over for Democrats. However, a liberal outside group has already spent more than $600,000 against Carey, and House Majority PAC reserved nearly $2 million in Columbus for a potential fall media buy.
  • COOK RATING: Solid Republican

STATE: An almost guaranteed matchup

• The competitive general-election matchup between 2024 presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy (R) and former state Department of Health Director Amy Acton (D) is already set ahead of the primary. Acton is unopposed in the primary after her biggest potential opponent, former Rep. Tim Ryan, decided against running. Although Ramaswamy is expected to cruise through the primary, he still has to defeat car entrepreneur Casey Putsch, who has attacked Ramaswamy over his Indian heritage and billionaire status.
  • ANALYSIS. Ramaswamy has everything he needs in this race. He is sitting on a $30 million war chest, has easily coalesced state GOP support, and has staved off challenges from formidable state-level Republicans. Putsch won’t win this primary, but his candidacy and rhetoric foreshadows Ramaswamy’s general-election hurdle: the challenge of energizing parts of the conservative base disillusioned with the mainstream GOP.
  • COOK RATING: Lean Republican

A HELPING HAND: Where the 2028 hopefuls are hitting the stump

• Sen. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg held events with Kaptur over the last two months. Slotkin also campaigned with Brown, Acton, and Landsman, and Buttigieg held an event for labor leaders in the state alongside Sykes. Rep. Ro Khanna of California endorsed Poindexter in Ohio-07.
  • ANALYSIS. Ohio’s working-class profile makes it a prime target for moderates like Slotkin and Buttigieg, who both already have ties to the Midwest. They have thus far endorsed incumbents or past politicians who are likely to win their primaries, leaving little risk of upsetting rivals and reaping the reward of being early to a state with strong labor unions.

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