For the third cycle in a row, Alabama Republicans are slated to choose a new senator—and President Trump’s pick isn’t guaranteed the seat.
With Republican Sen. Tommy Tuberville opting to run in the open governor’s race, six Republicans are jockeying for his seat in next month’s open primary. Trump has already given his almighty endorsement to Rep. Barry Moore, the state’s lone Freedom Caucus member. Vice President J.D. Vance and Senate Republicans, including Majority Leader John Thune and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Tim Scott, swiftly followed Trump’s example and backed Moore.
Yet in a state that comfortably favors the president, his endorsement isn’t guaranteeing Moore an escape from the June runoff.
The congressman is locked in a virtual three-way battle for the nomination with state Attorney General Steve Marshall and former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson. There are a significant number of undecided voters, and both Hudson and Marshall are building sizable support that could prevent Moore from winning a majority on the May 19 primary vote, forcing a June 16 runoff.
“We have great candidates to choose from,” former Alabama Republican Party Chair Terry Lathan told National Journal. “But at the end of the day, I always look at that undecided [voter] and watch what they decide to do.”
Moore, who represents southern Alabama in Congress, has a lot going right for him in addition to Trump’s endorsement. The fiscally conservative Club for Growth and Turning Point Action, the advocacy arm of the late right-wing activist Charlie Kirk’s Turning Point USA, endorsed Moore’s bid; the congressman is outraising his GOP competition without the use of personal loans; and Moore and his allies are flooding the airwaves with his MAGA bona fides, spending roughly $9.1 million combined according to the nonpartisan ad-tracking firm AdImpact. But it’s still not enough to pull decisively ahead with just weeks to go.
“I think policy-wise in Alabama everybody runs as a Trump conservative,” Moore told National Journal in an interview. “I think for us we just message on, ‘Hey, we’ve got a record that is conservative; I’m one of the most conservative members in the delegation. In addition to that, we actually have the president’s endorsement.'”
Polling of the primary indicates momentum for Moore, but it doesn’t show him cracking the 40 percent mark needed to avoid a runoff.
Michael Lowry, the founder of The Alabama Poll, said Moore can’t rely on the Trump endorsement alone, pointing to the fate of Trump’s failed picks in past GOP Senate primaries like former Sen. Luther Strange and former Rep. Mo Brooks—a founding member of the Freedom Caucus. Trump initially endorsed Brooks during the 2022 primary, but rescinded his endorsement as Brooks struggled to qualify for the GOP runoff and urged Republicans to move past disproven 2020 election-fraud claims; Trump later backed Katie Britt ahead of the runoff.
Sens. Tuberville and Britt—who’ve both stayed out of the primary—received Trump’s backing prior to their primary wins, but Lowry noted that the two candidates had shown clear momentum prior to Trump jumping on the bandwagon.
“In [Britt’s] case, it was the icing on the cake,” Lowry said. “With Barry Moore, it’s more like it was an ingredient in the batter and Barry still has to do the work to bake the rest of the cake.”
Even without the Trump endorsement, Marshall is leveraging his name recognition and his local roots as he competes against the congressman outside his district, in the Birmingham and Huntsville regions. He’s earned the support of 50 county sheriffs and district attorneys, as well as the Alabama Farmers Federation’s FarmPAC.
“I think we’re positioned to be in a spot that we can be in that final two and then have an opportunity to really share the vision of what we want to be able to do,” Marshall told National Journal in an interview.
Marshall’s biggest challenge is money, especially as Moore’s allies go negative on him. One ad from Alabama Freedom Fund, a Club for Growth affiliate, criticized Marshall for being a “soft-on-crime Democrat,” pointing to his old party affiliation. Marshall slammed what he called the ad’s “significantly false and misleading information.”
“I do think that people have been able to see through what’s going on, but it’s a reflexive action of outside money to try to prop up a candidate that otherwise is not getting traction,” he said.
Hudson is attempting to steal Marshall’s spot in a potential runoff, highlighting his outsider status. Apart from an unsuccessful run for Jefferson County sheriff in 2022, Hudson is best known for founding Covenant Rescue Group, a nonprofit combating human trafficking and child exploitation. He outraised Marshall, $550,000 to $209,000, during the first quarter of 2026, and a group supporting him, Alabama Conservatives, is spending at least $416,000 on his behalf.
“I have certainly been very impressed by Jared Hudson, and I think all of the local news has just lately … come out with more and more about him,” said Jessica Taylor, a 2022 Republican Senate candidate.
With little policy differentiation among the primary field, the veteran’s profile and his imposing physical appearance are also garnering attention in the race. He’s been endorsed by Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin and Sen. Tim Sheehy, a fellow ex-Navy SEAL, as well as conservative activist Riley Gaines.
“Likability is really important in any election,” Lathan said. “What I’ve seen is him working events and showing up at tailgates and going to counties and shaking hands. The polling is showing a little movement in that without a lot of money.”
While Moore should, on paper, be the favorite, Alabama voters will have the final say.
“You know, the folks of Alabama still very much support Trump,” Taylor said. “But in the same sense, we don’t like being told who to vote for.”
