The DCCC set an ambitious target list this cycle, declaring that they “are going on offense in 44” districts across the country. They need just three to take back the majority.
The surprisingly large battlefield stands out given that the number of flips per cycle continues to decrease due to increased polarization and perpetual gerrymandering.
What’s more notable is that, of the 44 districts, 17 of them went to President Trump by at least 10 points in 2024, meaning a lot would have to go right for them to flip these seats.
History isn’t on Democrats’ side for this type of performance. In 2018, a massive wave year, Democrats flipped just 2.8% (about four) of seats in which Trump won by more than 10 points in 2016.
Fundraising would help Democrats improve on that margin this time around. The first fundraising quarter of the election year is a critical time for many Democratic challengers in these seats. If they aren’t raising the money and don’t have the critical infrastructure, they are unlikely to receive support from the major spenders as November nears.
Democrats have their eye on three difficult seats in Florida, a state that has veered away from the party in recent years, and the first quarter offered welcome news for their Sunshine State project. In FL-07, two Democrats outraised embattled Rep. Cory Mills (R). Former NASA Chief of Staff Bale Dalton raised $349,000 in the first three months of the year, lapping Mills’ $75,000. Navy veteran Marialana Kinter (D) also outraised Mills with nearly $300,000.
Down in Tampa, Army veteran Leela Gray (D) got off to a good start, posting $565,000 to squeak past Rep. Anna Paulina Luna’s (R-FL 13) $551,000 raised. She’ll have to contend with Luna’s nearly $1.4 million on hand, but this is a seat Democrats have targeted in the past, and it’s a notable beginning for Gray.
But it wasn’t all rosy for the reach seats, and some are beginning to look more like pipe dreams. Democrats added Rep. Greg Murphy’s (R-NC 03) seat to their target list after redistricting, but he looks comfortable after the primary. Former state Rep. Raymond Smith (D) raised just $116,000 and had $41,000 on hand after the March primary. Murphy’s $2.6 million war chest should insulate him from any political headwinds Republicans could face.
Rep. Max Miller (R-OH 07), who represents a sprawling Cleveland-area seat, also appears safe right now. He’s sitting on $1.2 million as Brook Park City Councilman Brian Poindexter (D), a touted recruit, reported just $73,000 on hand.
Among those 17 Trump +10 districts, four are open seats. Democrats outraised the incumbent in five of the other 13 seats, a potential indication that this battlefield is likely to remain small. But there’s hope yet. In the open SC-01, vacated by Rep. Nancy Mace (R), Navy veteran Nancy Lacore (D) posted a $1 million quarter. The seat is a longshot, but that’s exactly the type of quarter Democrats are looking for if they seek aggressive opportunities to expand the map.
— James A. Downs
