What can Brownback do for Democrats?

Former Gov. Sam Brownback has been Democrats’ most reliable punching bag in Kansas since he launched his ill-fated tax plan in 2012, but the potency of those attacks could be diminishing as the party faces an uphill climb to keep the governor’s mansion.

Democrats leveraged the backlash to the governor’s failed tax-cut experiment to fuel Gov. Laura Kelly’s two statewide wins in 2018 and 2022. Democratic groups pumped tens of millions of dollars into advertisements portraying Kelly's Republican opponents as the second coming of Brownback, whose tax policy crippled the state economy and severely cut public services.

But now, nearly a decade since Brownback left public office, the third cycle might not be the charm for Democrats. With Kelly term-limited, national Democrats are looking to leverage Brownback once again in a race that heavily favors Republicans. At the same time, political observers and strategists told National Journal that invoking Brownback can’t be their only strategy in the governor's race Hotline considers most likely to flip.

“You have to think of any election as like a recipe with ingredients, and some ingredients are more prominent, some are less prominent. … And I think a way to look at this is that [Brownback] could be a factor, but it's going to be one of many factors,” said Patrick Miller, a political science professor at Kent State University and formerly of the University of Kansas.

As state Sens. Ethan Corson and Cindy Holscher vie for the Democratic nomination, Brownback isn’t dominating either candidate's stump speeches four months before the primary. Instead, the pair have turned their sights to pragmatic affordability platforms that mirror national Democratic messaging.

In the 2022 cycle, Democrats portrayed Republican nominee Derek Schmidt as Brownback 2.0. Now, instead of just relitigating the past, experts, strategists, and campaigns see Brownback as a contrast tool for Democrats to warn voters about where a GOP administration could lead.

“We should not be going all in on the Brownback experiment," said Kansas-based Democratic strategist Mike Swenson. "It is 10 years old, so it needs to be updated and refreshed and put into the context of an overall economic argument of where Kansas should be going. So I think that’s where we need to be careful.”

Holscher is trying to strike that balance in her campaign. The state senator was a cofounder of a bipartisan women's caucus that formulated the framework to repeal Brownback’s tax experiment in 2017, an achievement she touts on her campaign website.

While Holscher warns that a Republican governor would run a similar administration to Brownback's, she acknowledged to National Journal that she needs to give Kansans “something to vote for” and not just against.

“Kansans in every corner of this state and regardless of party affiliation remember all too well the disastrous outcome of the Brownback experiment: deep cuts to school funding, four-day school weeks, massive budget deficits, and crumbling roads and bridges,” Corson said in a statement to National Journal.

Corson, who has Kelly’s endorsement, hasn’t mentioned Brownback on his campaign website or his social media since launching his campaign, but he has criticized the former governor and his tax experiment during his time as state senator.

“Extreme Republicans running for Kansas governor won’t be able to run from their support for Brownback’s disastrous and deeply unpopular tax experiment,” Democratic Governors Association spokesperson Johanna Warshaw said in a statement. “Kansans are looking for a governor who will continue the progress made by Governor Kelly and work to lower costs, not one who will drag the state back to the failed Brownback years.”

Whether Democrats’ updated Brownback playbook is effective in a general election will also depend on who Republicans nominate. Former Gov. Jeff Colyer, running a comeback campaign, has the clearest ties to Brownback, having served as his lieutenant governor before succeeding him when the governor left for an ambassadorship in the first Trump administration.

It’ll be harder to show other GOP contenders like Scott Schwab and Vicki Schmidt, who merely voted for the tax plan, as a continuation of Brownback’s administration, Beatty added.

Republicans say the field’s ties to Brownback won’t be a liability, arguing that the focus on him is a sign of Democratic weakness.

“The Democrats have no record to run on, which is why they dredge up the ghost of past administrations rather than focusing on solutions,” Kansas Republican Party Executive Director Rob Fillion said in a statement to National Journal. “They can't talk about the successes of Laura Kelly, because she's leaving a mess in her wake. Kansas is hemorrhaging people due to over regulation and outrageous tax levels.”

There are also structural challenges to relying too heavily on a backward-looking message. Brownback’s tax plan, and impacts such as school closures, might not carry the same impact for younger voters who weren’t politically engaged during his tenure.

Republicans also say ads run by outside groups in 2024 point to the declining influence of Brownback attacks.

The Kansas Values Institute, a Democratic-aligned group, ran ads last cycle saying Republican state senators and candidates would “take us back” to the Brownback era, having defended his cuts to public schools. Not only did Republicans hold onto the targeted state senate districts, they also flipped Democratic seats where anti-Brownback ads were run.

At the statewide level, outside groups will likely take on the bulk of Brownback-related attacks. In 2018 and 2022, Kelly mostly focused on her goals and then achievements, respectively, letting outside groups like the Kansas Values Institute, which the DGA contributed to, litigate Brownback against her opponents.

As outside groups now will likely play again in Kansas to keep the seat in Democratic hands, Swenson cautioned them "to not overplay the Brownback card.”

“Political campaigns are often like wars, where you fight the last war because it worked last time if you won,” Beatty said. “But it's hard to know when it's not going to work until it doesn't.”