The Democratic primary for Georgia governor looks destined for a runoff. Former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) is virtually untouchable in the top spot thanks to her name ID as mayor of Atlanta, but has not cracked 50% in polling. The intrigue now lies in the more muddled race for second ahead of the May 19 primary.
Former state Sen. Jason Esteves (D) appears to have climbed into the second spot, according to a new poll obtained exclusively by Hotline.
The 20/20 Insight poll (March 19-24; 575 LVs; +/-4.1%), commissioned by Democratic secretary of state candidate Penny Brown Reynolds’ (D) campaign, found Bottoms with 32%, followed by Esteves with 14%, former Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan (D) with 12%, and former DeKalb County CEO Michael Thurmond (D) with 11%. 30% were unsure.
This is the first poll where Esteves has climbed to second place. In previous available surveys of the race, he has trailed Duncan and Thurmond, polling in the single digits.
But his campaign has turned up the heat in recent months as Democrats make the case that they’re most electable in a general election matchup. In a January strategy memo, Esteves’ campaign argued he’s a new, energetic leader who can meet the moment, and said that Bottoms and Duncan's baggage would risk Democrats' chances of flipping the seat in November.
That has set off a bickering match up between him and Duncan as the two vie for the second spot in the runoff election. Duncan hit Esteves’ low poll numbers in a forum earlier this month, saying “Jason must have woke up this morning and realized he’s still at 3% in the polls after 18 months of doing this.”
Esteves has criticized Duncan’s stances as a former Republican, including previously supporting the state’s ban on abortion after six weeks.
The stakes are high in this race for Democrats. Georgia topped Hotline’s ranking of gubernatorial races most likely to flip and whoever wins the nomination would enter the general election as the slight favorite.
Republicans are also destined for a runoff, likely between Lt. Gov. Burt Jones (R) and health care executive Rick Jackson (R). But as of now, no public polls have tested head-to-head matchups for the general election.
— Abby Turner
