March 26, 2026, 5:14 p.m.
Texas is headed for a Senate showdown this year, but Democrats have to settle for the sidelines first.
Before Republicans can give their undivided attention to defeating Democratic state Rep. James Talarico, they’ll need to sort through a high-stakes primary runoff between Sen. John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton. Cornyn finished ahead of Paxton by about 32,000 votes in the March 3 primary, but the May 26 runoff could go for either Republican.
President Trump said he would make an endorsement, but the president’s fixation with passing the SAVE America Act, which Paxton strongly advocates, has distracted him. With $70 million spent for Cornyn in the March primary, Republican leaders project the runoff could cost at least $100 million. If Paxton wins the runoff, Republican strategists warn that a general election could cost upward of $250 million thanks to the controversial state attorney general’s personal and professional baggage.
Meanwhile, Talarico is trying to rebuild a fractured electorate after a contentious primary fight with Rep. Jasmine Crockett. Talarico’s win was bolstered by white and Latino voters, but Crockett heavily carried Black voters.
Democrats are touting some bright spots ahead of November, pointing to a surge in turnout during the March primary. This month’s Democratic Senate primary saw the highest number of votes for a statewide-office primary in Texas history; more than 2.3 million votes were cast in the Democratic primary, and about 2.2 million were cast in the GOP Senate primary.
National Journal analyzed four Texas counties that could determine the Senate GOP nominee and potentially forecast the November winner.
A suburban county in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, Collin is one of the most populous Republican-leaning counties in the Lone Star State. Despite its leftward trend since Trump’s first term, the county has consistently backed statewide GOP candidates.
Paxton had a slightly stronger showing than Cornyn in suburban counties like Collin. In the primary, Paxton carried the county with 41 percent of the vote, garnering roughly 800 more votes than Cornyn. Collin is also one of 56 counties that saw higher GOP primary turnout in March compared to the 2024 GOP primary; most of these counties backed Paxton.
Collin County is Paxton’s home and the launching pad for his political career in the Texas Legislature. It’s also a stronghold for Paxton, demonstrating his political power even amid scandal. After the state Senate acquitted him on articles of impeachment in 2023, he backed several GOP primary challengers against state House Republicans who impeached him. In 2024, Paxton-backed challengers ousted incumbents in two out of the five GOP-held Collin County-based districts.
A Talarico win would likely require Collin County to flip for Democrats, making inroads in the state’s once ruby-red suburbs a top Democratic priority.
One of Republican Rep. Wesley Hunt’s better performances in the Senate primary was in Harris County, which houses his 38th Congressional District. The congressman garnered only 20 percent of the vote in Texas’ most populous county, but his supporters could decide the runoff.
Cornyn’s narrow first-place finish in the primary could be credited to his impressive showing in the state’s urban hubs around Austin, Dallas, Fort Worth, and San Antonio. Yet the senator only garnered roughly 2,000 more votes than Paxton in Harris County, home to Houston.
Though Cornyn could once again rely on the state’s urban counties to deliver him the GOP nomination, the Houston area could swing to Paxton in May. Available polling suggests that Hunt’s voters are more likely to back Paxton in the runoff. A mid-March poll from Democratic pollster Change Research showed Paxton outperforming Cornyn in this region.
A Democratic victory also runs through Harris County, which has trended more blue in recent cycles. Former Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke won the county by about 17 points in his 2018 Senate run. If Republicans want to avoid disaster in November, they’ll need to limit their losses in urban counties like Harris.
Jefferson County has the highest percentage of Black Texans, a demographic that turned out heavily for Crockett in the primary. The majority-minority county backed the congresswoman by 59 points.
Before Crockett announced her campaign, Talarico sought early support from Jefferson County’s Beaumont Democrats. Once the congresswoman entered the race, Talarico’s Jefferson County support evaporated along with his support among the state’s Black voter base. Beaumont-based state Rep. Christian Manuel notably switched his endorsement from Talarico to Crockett.
Jefferson is a prime example of a county that Talarico should win if he wants to flip the Senate seat blue, putting the onus on him to improve his outreach with former Crockett supporters. The county has trended toward Republicans since Trump flipped it in 2016, with the president’s winning margins growing each cycle. O’Rourke won Jefferson County by less than 1 point in 2018.
Yet Talarico and his fellow Democrats could find some hope if they build a diverse coalition of voters ahead of November. Jefferson County is one of 20 Trump-won counties that saw more Democratic Senate primary votes cast than GOP primary votes.
The Latino-majority Zapata County is ground zero for Trump’s early inroads with Latino voters along the U.S.-Mexico border. The county backed Hillary Clinton by 33 points in 2016 and supported O’Rourke by 26 points in the 2018 Senate race. Then it flipped hard for Trump in 2020. Former President Biden lost Zapata by 5 points, then the trend continued in 2024, with Trump winning by 22 points and Sen. Ted Cruz winning it by roughly 6 points in his reelection race.
Yet this month’s primaries signaled a partisan reversal in the region. In the Democratic primary, 2,695 votes were cast in Zapata County, after former Vice President Kamala Harris had received only 1,877 votes in 2024.
Talarico handily won Zapata in the primary with 59 percent of the vote, garnering 1,595 votes. In the 28th Congressional District Democratic primary, Rep. Henry Cuellar won 2,784 out of 3,511 votes cast in the county.
If Democrats want to regain their South Texas strength, they’ll need to pay attention to border counties like Zapata ahead of November.
