March 11, 2026, 4:32 p.m.
Twelve years ago, Republicans flipped the New Mexico statehouse for the first time since 1953, riding a national red wave though a state that had long leaned Democratic. The GOP took hold of a majority of statewide offices, including the governor’s seat.
But today the party is struggling just to field candidates.
Republicans failed to qualify candidates for roughly a third of the top statewide offices this year, including for U.S. Senate, state auditor, and state treasurer as the Feb. 3 filing deadline passed. Christopher Vanden Heuvel filed to run in the GOP Senate primary, hoping to challenge Democratic Sen. Ben Ray Luján, but he was disqualified for failing to submit enough valid signatures.
The problems facing the Republican Party in the Land of Enchantment run far deeper than one election cycle.
Then-New Mexico Republican chairwoman Debbie Maestas in 2015 (AP Photo/Russell Contreras)
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Party officials and political observers say divisions in the state GOP—ideological and regional—as well as repeated defeats thanks in part to gerrymandering have weakened Republicans' standing in New Mexico and their ability to recruit candidates.
It’s a dilemma that could leave them unable to capitalize when national political winds eventually blow toward Republicans again.
“It's hard for Republicans to win New Mexico, but still there's no excuse for the necessity to run a candidate, even if that candidate loses," said Brian Sanderoff, president of Research & Polling, a New Mexico polling and analysis firm. "It's an opportunity for that person to draw contrast and to criticize, make comparisons with the Democratic candidate,”
Merritt Hamilton Allen, a New Mexico public-relations executive and columnist, said the party’s drift to a more MAGA-centric approach is poorly suited to the state’s political geography.
Allen pointed to the Albuquerque metro, home to roughly half the state’s population. The area has historically been home to the state’s more moderate Republicans. Six Republicans held state House seats out of the 24 districts within Albuquerque city limits after the 2014 sweep. Now, just one Republican holds a seat in the area.
“I think the MAGA brand is over in New Mexico, and it has been for a couple election cycles, and this is not resounding with the state party,” said Allen, who described herself as a “Reaganite.”
I think the MAGA brand is over in New Mexico, and it has been for a couple election cycles. ”
— Merritt Hamilton Allen, New Mexico public-relations executive and columnist
Crushing defeats and gerrymandering have greatly contributed to an air of helplessness that’s hindering both candidate recruitment and voter enthusiasm.
“When people feel like their votes aren’t going to make a difference, then they’re probably not going to go out and vote,” San Juan County GOP Chairman Pat Cordell told National Journal.
As for the challenge of recruiting, Cordell suggested that candidates may not want to commit to a long and arduous campaign if they know it could be a losing effort.
State party officials say they are working to field candidates where possible for 2026 races, but without a consolidation of the field, there's little they can do. The Republican Party of New Mexico can’t assist candidates when more than one Republican is seeking the same office, executive director Leticia Muñoz told National Journal in a statement. Three Republicans, including Vanden Heuvel, were pursuing petition signatures at the Feb. 3 deadline for the U.S. Senate race.
Larry Marker is pursuing write-in declarations to be placed on the GOP primary ballot which are due on March 17. If he gets 2,351 qualified Republican signatures and gets at least one person to vote for him in the primary, he’ll be the GOP nominee. State GOP Chair Amy Barela is encouraging party delegates to back Marker. The party is also preparing a write-in candidate for state auditor.
“We expect to field candidates in all statewide and federal races, with the possible exception of the state-treasurer contest,” Muñoz said, acknowledging defeat in that race.
The divisions within the party are as regional as they are ideological. Steve Taylor, a veteran of New Mexico politics who most recently served as a policy adviser for 2024 GOP Senate nominee Nella Domenici, highlighted southeastern New Mexico, one of the most conservative areas of the state. He said GOP voters there are more socially conservative than those in other parts of the state—especially Albuquerque and central parts of the state like Sandoval County, which tend to have more libertarian-leaning Republicans.
“If the candidate meets the litmus test from, you know, southeast or northwest New Mexico, [it could] make them unelectable in Albuquerque,” Taylor said. “You've got to find a way around that.”
Stewart Ingham campaigning for his wife, Mary Ingham, a candidate for the New Mexico state House of Representatives, outside a polling center in the South Valley area of Albuquerque in 2022 (AP Photo/Andres Leighton)
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Democratic redistricting has done the Republican Party no favors, either. From 1981 until 2022, Democrats held the 2nd Congressional District for a total of four years. Rep. Yvette Herrell, a Republican, won the seat by 8 points in 2020, but Santa Fe Democrats removed conservative areas of the district during the 2021 redistricting period and replaced it with parts of the South Valley of Albuquerque, a heavily Hispanic, historically Democratic area. The seat has been won by a Democrat in back-to-back elections for the first time since 1976 and 1978.
When people feel like their votes aren’t going to make a difference, then they’re probably not going to go out and vote. ”
— San Juan County GOP Chairman Pat Cordell
The remedy for the party’s struggles could lay further down the ballot.
“You also have to be good at targeting legislative races. The notion of running someone in every district—it sounds great, but you need to target those races where you have a shot and then spend all your limited resources in them,” Sanderoff said. Building up a Republican candidate bank in downballot offices like city council and school board creates a larger field to recruit from for competitive state Legislative races, and then later for statewide and federal races.
Observers and operatives in the state largely agree that revitalization of the Republican Party runs through Albuquerque. The demographics of the city and its suburban core, reflecting national trends, have shifted away from the Republican Party in recent years.
Kamala Harris won Bernalillo County in 2024 by 21 points, while Democratic Sen. Martin Heinrich won it by 22 points. A Republican strategist well-seasoned in New Mexico politics suggested that Republicans don’t need to win the county but they need to cut their margins to around 10 to 12 points to be competitive.
Part of the shift, some say, is because GOP candidates have been unable to reliably win suburban women in recent years.
But the numbers statewide seem to be trending in Republicans' favor. In 2014, Democrats held a 15-point voter-registration advantage over Republicans in the state. As of this January, Democrats' advantage was less than 10 points. Last year, Doña Ana County gained over 2,500 new Republican voters, according to county GOP Chairwoman Janice Williams.
Whether Republicans can translate that trend into electoral competitiveness the next time the winds blow the Republican way may depend on whether the party can unify the party across ideological and party lines and form a strong candidate base ready to launch.
“Things can change fast," Sanderoff said. "You can't write off the Republican Party in New Mexico. So much of it, though, depends on the national mood.”
