Roughly eight months from Election Day, the dust is settling on last year’s redistricting wars, providing more clarity on what the House battlefield looks like.
In our previous ranking, Hotline excluded California races until voters decided on the redistricting referendum. The map passed overwhelmingly, placing the Golden State’s competitive districts back in the running and bringing the greatest change to our rankings.
Democrats, emboldened by a strong year in 2025, say they have the winds at their backs as they seek to reclaim the lower chamber. Republicans contend they have a winning message centered on crime, immigration, and their hallmark tax bill. However, strategists in both parties caution against expecting a major wave, given the ever-shrinking battlefield that’s been constrained by gerrymandering.
In keeping with previous editions of Power Rankings, Hotline does not consider redistricted seats that party operatives have declared unwinnable as a result of redistricting. Districts such as California’s 1st and 3rd, as well as Texas’ 9th and 32nd, are all but ceded to the opposing party. They do not warrant inclusion on this list.
Each of these races are considered on their individual volatility and likeliness to flip, and not as a reflection of the battlefield. The list is based on conversations with strategists, consultants, and campaigns in both parties.
1. Texas’ 35th: Open (D)
A new seat resulting from Republican-led redistricting, this is perhaps the most interesting race on the map. The seat, which would have gone to President Trump in 2024 by about 10 points, could be competitive if the cookie crumbles correctly for Democrats. They’ll need a favorable environment and a strong candidate. Party officials have signaled they like Bexar County Deputy Sheriff Johnny Garcia, who is headed to a May runoff. The president endorsed Air Force veteran Carlos De La Cruz, while Gov. Greg Abbott backed state Rep. John Lujan. That primary is also ending in a runoff. This district is likely to go to Republicans, but it still has the makings of a potentially competitive race.
2. Nebraska’s 2nd: Open (R) ↓
Rep. Don Bacon’s retirement instantly made the Omaha seat Democrats’ best pickup opportunity, and it remains so among districts on the battlefield. This was one of three GOP seats former Vice President Kamala Harris won in 2024, suggesting a Democratic advantage. A competitive and crowded primary awaits Democrats, while Omaha Councilman Brinker Harding is the presumptive GOP nominee after no other Republican filed to run.
3. Maine’s 2nd: Open (D) ↑
Democratic Rep. Jared Golden was a perennial target for Republicans after he flipped the long-held GOP seat in 2018. Despite the changing political tides, Golden was a rock the last few years, winning race after race despite Trump consistently carrying the Northern Maine district. Golden’s profile as a no-nonsense, tattooed Marine fit the district well, and his time working for Republican Sen. Susan Collins helped burnish his bipartisan bona fides. But Golden is no longer on the ticket after announcing his retirement last year, leaving less defined Democrats scrambling to fill his big shoes. Former Gov. Paul LePage is the favorite in the GOP primary and is the front-runner to replace Golden based on the partisan lean of the district alone. Former campaign strategist Jordan Wood, state Auditor Matt Dunlap, or state Sen. Joe Baldacci, the three Democrats competing for the nomination, might have a puncher’s chance to keep the seat blue in a really good year for Democrats.
4. North Carolina’s 1st: Rep. Don Davis (D) ↓
Even as 2026 shapes up to be a friendlier cycle for Democrats nationally, Davis is running into potentially stiff headwinds because North Carolina Republicans used their legislative supermajority to redraw the 1st District and effectively eliminate its remaining swing turf. That move leaves Davis to fight an uphill battle against Laurie Buckhout to represent a district that now clearly leans Republican at the federal level. Though Davis was able to pull off a hard-fought win against Buckhout in 2024, the new lines dramatically alter the electorate. Leading the Future, an AI-aligned PAC, has already invested heavily and promised sustained engagement—a sign Republicans see this not only as a must-win but a can-win.
5. Pennsylvania’s 7th: Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R)
Pennsylvania was Ground Zero for Republicans’ takeover of the White House and Congress in 2024, leaving Democrats to claw back ground in the Keystone State this cycle. Their best pickup opportunity is in the Lehigh Valley, where the freshman Republican faces an uphill reelection fight despite the president having carried the district by 3 points. Mackenize is the most vulnerable Republican incumbent despite an unsettled Democratic primary. Even with a crowded field, Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro is making flipping seats a priority as he campaigns for another term and lays the groundwork for a potential presidential bid. One of the most popular governors in the country, Shapiro is going to lend his political support to whoever emerges from the Democratic primary.
6. Colorado’s 8th: Rep. Gabe Evans (R) ↓
This seat, formed in 2022, has not seen a winner clear 50 percent in its two elections, and 2026 could be another down-to-the-wire affair. That said, Evans faces a tough task as a freshman in the battleground district, which went to Trump by under 2 points in 2024 and to former President Biden by under 5 points in 2020. There’s another crowded Democratic primary here, and Republicans seem excited at the prospect of running against state Rep. Manny Rutinel, who has sought the progressive lane in the race. Former state Rep. Shannon Bird and Marine Corps veteran Evan Munsing are also vying for the nomination.
7. Iowa’s 1st: Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) ↑
Miller-Meeks ran for Congress three times before eventually winning on her fourth try in 2020. Democrat Christina Bohannan is on her third campaign against the congresswoman, and she hopes this time’s the charm. Bohannan is raising good money and has consolidated early support so she can run a general-election campaign months before the June primary. Republicans acknowledge that Miller-Meeks is in danger, especially after a lackluster primary performance last cycle followed by a narrow, 800-vote win over Bohannan that November. Democrats say that if Miller-Meeks could barely squeak by in what was a high-water-mark GOP year, a blue wave would easily deliver her from office.
8. Arizona’s 6th: Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R) ↑
Trump carried the sprawling southeastern Arizona district by less than a point, and Ciscomani defeated Democrat Kirsten Engel by about the same margin. A newcomer, Marine Corps veteran JoAnna Mendoza, is challenging Ciscomani this year and has cleared the primary thanks to strong fundraising and endorsements from national groups like EMILY’s List. Ciscomani’s biggest liabilities this cycle are Trump’s unpopular tariffs and the absence of the president’s name at the top of the ballot to boost turnout among the GOP base.
9. Texas’ 34th: Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D) ↓
Republicans landed their best recruit across the map with former federal prosecutor Eric Flores in a seat they’ve tried to flip for a few cycles now. Emboldened by Hispanic voter shifts in the region and redistricting, they view this is one of their top targets. But Democrats are expressing confidence that Gonzalez can navigate the tough terrain, as he’s won difficult races in the past. Party operatives point to data showing Hispanic voters souring on Trump, which could prove vital with a midterm electorate.
10. Ohio's 9th: Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D) ↓
Kaptur is the longest-serving woman in congressional history. Until the most recent round of apportionment in 2020, she had represented a safe Democratic seat since the Reagan administration. She's found herself in much more competitive races recently but has benefited from subpar GOP challengers who were mired in controversy. Even so, the 2024 Republican nominee came within a point of beating Kaptur last year as Trump carried the district by 7 points. Ohio underwent another court-ordered redraw last year, and Kaptur's district became even friendlier to Republicans. There are no clear front-runners on the GOP side, with 2024 nominee Derek Merrin, state Rep. Josh Williams, Air Force veteran Alea Nadeem, and former Immigration and Customs Enforcement Deputy Director Madison Sheahan duking it out. Whoever does emerge will have the local partisan winds at their back even if the national environment continues to deteriorate for Republicans. A possible saving grace for Kaptur is Democrat Sherrod Brown's comeback campaign in the Senate. To have any hope of reclaiming his seat, Brown will have to run up the numbers in Kaptur's district.
11. Pennsylvania’s 10th: Rep. Scott Perry (R) ↓
Despite Trump’s strong performance in Pennsylvania, Perry defeated Democrat Janelle Stelson by only about a point last cycle. She’s back again and has already hit the ground running. The former TV anchor outraised Perry in the last quarter of 2025 and entered 2026 with about the same cash on hand. Democrats are ready to invest heavily in the race and take advantage of Perry’s past controversies. The Harrisburg-area district has trended blue in recent cycles, but it still leans Republican. Stelson will need to refine her message to take advantage of a cycle that’s shaping up to favor Democrats.
12. New York’s 17th: Rep. Mike Lawler (R)
Lawler’s district is a textbook battleground seat. The Hudson Valley district swung by roughly 2,000 votes to Harris in 2024, highlighting just how razor-thin the Democratic advantage is. That margin keeps the seat firmly on Democrats’ radar and makes it one of the most plausible red-to-blue flips this cycle. Lawler has proven he can survive in hostile terrain, with the two-term Republican outrunning the top of the ticket by roughly 5 points in 2024 while building a pragmatic, district-first brand that allows him to work across the aisle. But given Lawler’s slim majority in his district, an energized Democratic base could make this one of the most competitive races in the country. Even a small shift in turnout or enthusiasm could tip the balance toward Democrats.
13. Iowa’s 3rd: Rep. Zach Nunn (R) ↑
The Des Moines seat is a top priority for Democrats. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee recently named Sarah Trone Garriott to its coveted “Red to Blue” challenger program, and she’s consistently raising enough money to keep pace with Nunn. Besides money, there are two other factors at play that might give Democrats more momentum by November. First, Trump’s tariffs have hit the state hard as countries such as China have all but halted buying Iowa soybeans. Two, Democrat Rob Sand is running a very competitive race for governor, and he could lift a lot of boats along with him.
14. Wisconsin’s 3rd: Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R)
Not much has changed in this race since Hotline’s first two editions, as the race is barreling toward a rematch between Van Orden and Democrat Rebecca Cooke. Van Orden underperformed the president by more than 4 points, making this seat—historically held by a Democrat—a top target for Democrats. Van Orden is one of the stronger fundraisers in the GOP Conference, but Cooke is also among the best Democratic raisers. This rematch should be a barn burner.
15. California’s 48th: Rep. Darrell Issa (R)
Issa, one of the wealthiest members of Congress, could prove to be a casualty of redistricting, as California’s referendum changed his San Diego-area seat from solid Republican to a highly competitive contest. The redrawn seat would have gone to Harris by about 4 points, which could be more than enough to topple Issa depending on the political environment come November. If Issa opens the purse, however, it could be a different story, and Democrats still have much to sort out in their primary.
16. California’s 22nd: Rep. David Valadao (R) ↓
Valadao has been a thorn in Democrats’ side for years, and nothing seems to stick in a district known for its low voter turnout. Tying him to Trump or criticizing his health care votes didn’t resonate enough with voters to sink this perpetual moderate. Democrats hope redrawing the seat might finally push them over the line. The newly configured map makes the southern Central Valley and eastern Bakersfield seat slightly more favorable to Democrats. Also, as the last remaining House Republican who voted to impeach Trump at the end of his first term, Valadao could run into some headwinds if Trump starts rallying the base against him and depresses Republican turnout.
17. Washington’s 3rd: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) ↑
Gluesenkamp Perez’s district will again host one of the most closely watched races this November. The southwest Washington Democrat flipped the seat in 2022—turning a seat the GOP had held for over a decade blue. She also won reelection in 2024 with 52 percent of the vote, even as Trump carried the district. Her appeal in the conservative-leaning district has hinged on publicly criticizing her party and breaking with Democrats on certain high-profile votes. Still, this cycle may be tougher. Gluesenkamp Perez has yet to fight a competitive challenger after two cycles against the same candidate, but this time she’s poised to face state Sen. John Braun, who gives the GOP an inoffensive challenger with name recognition and statewide officeholding experience. The district was one of a few that trended to the left in 2024, and a bluer year bodes well for the congresswoman, but a legitimate challenger this time around is likely to give Gluesenkamp Perez a run for her money.
18. Michigan’s 7th: Rep. Tom Barrett (R) ↑
Barrett flipped the district, a true swing seat, by almost 4 points after Elissa Slotkin vacated it to run for Senate. Democrats have two quality candidates in the race in former Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam and former Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink. Some Democrats privately quip they wish they could split the candidates into different districts. There’s no clear front-runner right now—Brink’s raised $600,000 more than Maasdam. Barrett, brandishing national security credentials himself as an Army veteran, is considered a strong incumbent who won’t go down without a fight.
19. Texas’ 28th: Henry Cuellar (D) ↓
This is the year Republicans swear they’ll knock off Cuellar. Things were going well for them: Cuellar was caught up in a legal controversy, they recruited their strongest-ever candidate in Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina, and regional shifts seemed to trend in the GOP’s favor. Then Trump shockingly pardoned Cuellar, prompting questions of whether he’d retire or run as a Republican. Neither occurred, and it’s a Cuellar-Tijerina matchup in the battle of Laredo. Democrats maintain corruption allegations wouldn’t have worked against Cuellar anyway, and they might be right. Cuellar is a mainstay in the region and a good retail politician. Serious money is likely to be spent in this district in what could be one of the premier races this cycle.
20. California’s 13th: Rep. Adam Gray (D) ↑
The reworked map might not be enough to save Gray. The freshman finds himself in a much friendlier seat, but that says more about how difficult his reelection campaign was initially than the strength of the gerrymander. Gray defeated Republican former Rep. John Duarte by fewer than 200 votes last cycle in a district Trump carried by 5 points. Under the new lines, Harris would have carried the seat by 1 point. This gives Gray some breathing room, but not much. Trump endorsed former Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln, who is leading the GOP primary field in fundraising and has begun to consolidate support.
